Ukraine
EBRD cuts Ukraine’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.5% amid war uncertainty
Ukraine’s economy is projected to expand by 2.5% in 2025, down from a previously forecast 3.3%, as the ongoing war with Russia weighs on investment and trade, the EBRD said.
COMMENT: Trump is preparing a “back door” plan to blame EU for Ukraine’s failure - FT
European officials fear that US President Donald Trump’s dramatic U-turn on Ukraine is a back door plan to shift responsibility for the West’s failure to prevent Ukraine’s defeat in its war with Russia or help it recover afterwards.
Russia draft 2026 budget cuts military spending for the first time, introduces new taxes
Russia’s Ministry of Finance presented the 2026-2028 budget that keeps spending flat, introduces new taxes to fund a ballooning budget deficit and cuts military spending for the first time in three years.
EBRD says geopolitics, tariffs and China competition weigh on Emerging Europe growth
Development bank downgrades 2025 forecasts for Central and Eastern Europe citing weak external demand, rising debt and the impact of US tariffs.
Kremlin slams Trump’s Ukraine U-turn, war the only alternative
The Kremlin slammed US President Donald Trump’s U-turn on Ukraine delivered during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 23 saying the only option is to continue the war.
Trump does an about-turn on Ukraine as his “minerals diplomacy” with Russia fails
Donald Trump did an abrupt about-turn on Ukraine during an hour-long rambling speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), saying Ukraine could recapture all its lost territory in the war with Russia.
IMF presses Ukraine to raise budget funding estimate to $65bn
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pushed Ukraine to increase its estimate of foreign financing needs through 2027 to about $65bn, significantly higher than the government’s initial projection of $38bn.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
COMMENT: Ukraine has no choice but to escalate its refinery attacks
Vladimir Putin's meeting with Trump in Anchorage backfired. The Russian president is now confident that military escalation will not lead to a significant increase in US military aid to Ukraine, much less intervention.
Funding the war: Ukraine and Russia's budgets side-by-side
Ukraine is teetering on the edge of a funding crisis that could cause its war effort to collapse. The pain for Russia's economy is also growing fast as it slides into stagnation or even stagflation.
EU finance ministers discuss Ukraine's Reparations Loan but no decision yet
EU finance ministers met in Copenhagen on September 20 to discuss tapping the cash pile of frozen Central Bank of Russia (CBR) money and using it to make a large Reparation Loans to Ukraine, but no final decision has been reached.
COMMENT: Russian drone and jet incursions highlight shortcomings in Nato’s multilayered air defence system
A spate of Russian drone incursions has stress-tested Nato’s air defences. On September 10, nineteen Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace — the alliance’s worst such breach in more than seventy-five years.
New KIIS report says invasion boosted Zelenskiy approval rating
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 “has substantially increased Zelenskiy’s approval rating,” according to a new release from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Iran delivers high efficiency gas turbines to Russia to replace sanctioned Siemens equipment
The extreme sanctions imposed on Russia have hit industrial sectors the hardest, which have been almost entirely dependent on imports of high quality foreign made machinery for almost all of the last three decades since the fall of the Soviet Union.
COMMENT: Can Ukraine avoid a macroeconomic collapse? - Shevchenko
“As Ukraine enters autumn 2025, its economy teeters on the brink of a new macroeconomic shock, with its recovery potential exhausted,” Kyrylo Shevchenko, the former head of the National Bank of Ukraine said in an opinion piece on September 18.
EU passes nineteenth sanctions package, accelerates LNG phase out
The European Commission has published proposals for a 19th sanctions package against Russia that would tighten curbs on energy trade and payments, with new measures aimed at oil refineries, oil traders and petrochemical companies in third countries.
Polish border shutdown poses questions on Asia-Europe rail freight
The closure of Poland’s crossings with Belarus on September 12 has rattled transport and logistics companies, which warn that a prolonged halt could drive cargo away from the country, disrupt supply chains and inflate costs for businesses,
Europe faces harsh realities in Ukraine as long war looms - Ash
Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London, says European policymakers are belatedly waking up to the fact that the war in Ukraine is set to be prolonged — and that they alone may have to foot the bill.
Poland closes its border with Belarus, cutting off China's rail link to Europe
Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus in response to the quadrennial Zapad-2025 military exercises and Russian drone incursion on September 10 has abruptly severed one of the fastest-growing trade arteries between China and the EU.
Europe remains Russia's number one biggest importer of gas, top five importer of oil in August
US President Donald Trump complained that the EU is still importing too much Russian oil and that the White House will not put sanctions on Russia unless the EU cuts back on this business.