Brazil's hosting of next month's BRICS summit is being overshadowed by the likely absence of two of the bloc's most powerful leaders, threatening to dent the gathering's geopolitical significance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the July 6-7 meeting in Rio de Janeiro due to the International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over him, the Kremlin confirmed on June 25. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping has signalled he may also skip the summit, according to Brazilian officials cited by Folha de Sao Paulo.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Putin would participate via video link, citing "certain difficulties in the context of the ICC's requirements". The Hague-based court issued the warrant in 2023, accusing Putin and Russian Children's Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova of war crimes related to the alleged illegal abduction of Ukrainian children since Russia's invasion began in 2022.

"In that context, the Brazilian government could not take a clear position that would allow our president to participate in this meeting," Ushakov said. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will represent Russia at the summit instead.

"Russia will take part in the summit’s work in any case. The development of BRICS and our engagement in the group is one of our highest priorities," Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated.

Brazil, as an ICC member state, would be legally obligated to arrest Putin should he enter the country. The Russian leader has carefully avoided international travel to ICC signatory countries since the warrant was issued, though he made a high-profile visit to Mongolia last year in apparent defiance of the court order.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was recently added to the Myrotvorets “enemies of Ukraine database,” has maintained close ties with Putin following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, drawing backlash from Western partners. His recent Moscow visit, during which he appealed for a temporary ceasefire, saw the signing of wide-ranging agreements covering defence, nuclear energy and scientific collaboration.

Yet the 79-year-old Brazilian leader has not spared criticism of Russia's aggression. During a recent trip to France, Lula said that “Brazil condemned, from the start, Russia's violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity and has been standing for peace for three years."

Xi's potential absence represents an even bigger diplomatic challenge for Lula, who has made personal efforts to secure the Chinese leader's attendance. Celso Amorim, Lula's special adviser for international affairs, acknowledged the uncertainty whilst expressing hope Xi would attend.

"Obviously we would really like Xi to come, because Lula already has a personal relationship with him, and that also counts, not just the position," Amorim said, as quoted by Folha, suggesting Chinese Premier Li Qiang could lead Beijing's delegation if Xi does not travel.

When questioned by Brazilian media, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun would only say that "information will be given at the appropriate time." China typically confirms its leader's international trips shortly before departure.

If Xi's absence is confirmed, it would mark the first BRICS summit he has missed since assuming China's leadership in 2013. The potential no-show comes amid some bilateral tensions between Brazil and China, including Brazil's rejection of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative and recent disagreements over visa reciprocity arrangements.

The leadership gaps would leave only founding members Brazil and India represented by their heads of government at the summit, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to attend alongside Lula. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is also anticipated to participate, whilst the attendance of newer members remains uncertain.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's participation is in doubt after his country was offered only partner status rather than full membership, a decision that reportedly frustrated Ankara. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already announced she will send a representative rather than attend personally.