Mongolia’s cabinet is set to face a vote of confidence with public pressure mounting on the prime minister to step down. A parliamentary vote is expected to take place early next week.

Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai put forward the confidence vote on May 28, placing his job on the line amid questions over the source of his family wealth. Oyun-Erdene has led the government for four years – he is one of the longest-serving prime ministers of Mongolia’s modern era.

The Great Hural, Mongolia’s 126-seat Parliament, could hold a vote of confidence on the government as soon as Tuesday June 3. Oyun-Erdene, 44, needs a majority of MPs to support him in the vote to stay in power.

Oyun-Erdene’s party, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), holds 68 of the 126 seats in Parliament. The second-largest party, the Democratic Party (DP), holds 42.

It’s far from certain that Oyun-Erdene still has enough sway in the MPP to raise the necessary votes to keep him in power.

“Mongolian People’s Party parliament members are usually disciplined, but now they are likely to split into two groups – those who support the prime minister and those who do not,” said Amar Adiya, editor-in-chief of Mongolia Weekly, a business intelligence newsletter.

“Those who do not support Oyun-Erdene could likely align with DP members of parliament and they can hold the majority. Oyun-Erdene’s chances of winning appear very slim.”

The popularity of Oyun-Erdene has eroded rapidly over the past month following allegations that his family has unfairly benefitted from political power.

Scrutiny has focused on his son, Temulen, a 23-year-old student at Harvard. He allegedly showered his girlfriend with luxury gifts, a matter documented in online posts. Temulen is now back in Mongolia for a probe conducted by anti-corruption authorities. The investigation reportedly includes the prime minister’s own financial records.

Public anger has spilled onto the streets where daily protests of varying size occupy Ulaanbaatar’s main square. Nearly 60,000 people have signed a petition calling for Oyun-Erdene to step down.

Some members of the DP recently voiced their support for the protesters. Their dissent led the MPP to vote for the DP to leave the coalition government in a party caucus last week. The vote did not formally force the DP to leave the coalition. As of May 29, it was unclear if the DP would have any role in the government.

The turmoil comes just 10 months after parliamentary elections gave Oyun-Erdene a new mandate to rule. His cabinet has been squarely focused on “mega” infrastructure projects and deals with foreign mining firms.

Recent large-scale projects announced include a new dry port facility on the southern border with China to handle Mongolia’s growing coal exports.

The government is also planning to build a 450-megawatt coal-fired power plant in southern Mongolia to power its massive coal and copper mining operations. An oil refinery, a hydropower plant and a uranium mine are also in various stages of development. 

In a late appeal to the public, the prime minister recently announced the redistributing of up to 34% of all strategic assets into a national wealth fund to benefit every citizen. But with Mongolia’s PM facing the threat of removal, the government’s plan to implement its series of 14 mega projects, as well as its move to increase wealth distribution to citizens, could face delays.

If he is ousted, the MPP will likely look to a new leader who can quickly get projects back on track. In a statement, the government said a new prime minister would be appointed within 30 days if Oyun-Erdene was voted out of office.