Features
Analysis: Licence step puts Georgia’s TBC on verge of pioneering move into Uzbekistan’s state-dominated banking industry
Summer could see LSE-listed lender start banking operations in country riding wave of ‘Mirziyoyev’ reforms. Central Asian nation has low but rising penetration of banking products.
INTERVIEW: Ukraine gas tariffs stay low, energy sector outlook improves
After signing off on a new gas transit deal in the last days of last year, Ukrainian authorities backed off their threat to more than triple gas tariffs for domestic producers in an effort to keep the pipeline system from going bankrupt.
East Asian investors ramp up investments in Central and Eastern Europe
China became the top investor in CEE in 2019, leading fellow East Asian investors that accounted for a growing share of M&A in the region. More deals are expected to follow, says a new report from law firm CMS.
OUTLOOK 2020 Azerbaijan
The tectonic plates holding together Azerbaijan’s clanocracy are shifting. Economists say a massive restructuring of the economy is needed to benefit ordinary citizens.
OUTLOOK 2020 Armenia
Growth driven by private consumption expected at around 5% in post-revolution “anti-corruption” administration’s third year. Country’s ratings improving with transition seen as success to date. Popular government may fear taking on painful reforms.
Putin calls for constitutional changes to shift power to Duma during his state of the nation speech
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for changes to the constitution that would shift power to the Duma, the Russian parliament, as well as imposing some new limits to the president’s power, during his annual state of the nation speech.
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OUTLOOK 2020 Kyrgyzstan
Recovered gold output to keep GDP growth at 4%. Russia's economic fate, anaemic job creation, stagnating poverty reduction and climate change are worries. No sign of political war between camps of president and on-trial predecessor flaring up again.
TURKEY INSIGHT: “Liquidity trumps geopolitics” as Borsa Istanbul breaks consecutive records
IIF sees capital markets awash in abundant central bank liquidity and disconnect from political risk. Catalyst for Turkish equity outperformance is banks’ upbeat forecasts. But lenders fear the regime, their views seem “Panglossian” says analyst.
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OUTLOOK 2020 Belarus
A row with Russia that saw Belarus' oil supplies cut off caught the headlines but the bigger problem the country faces is its demographic trends. The government wants to boost technological industries and increase diversification.
OUTLOOK 2020 Poland
The new year is shaping up to be at least as tumultuous as the old one, or, in fact, each one since 2015, when the incumbent right-wing nationalist populists from PiS won their first term in power.
How interconnected are the economies of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan? Inflation and rates outlook for 2020
In 1991 the Soviet Union broke apart and created 15 independent countries. But over the last three decades, while these countries are politically independent, the economies of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan (KRUB) remain joined at the hip.
Russia funds monthly wrap: ETFs beat the RTS in 2019, return over 50%
Russia’s RTS returned just under 45% in 2019 and all of the dozen exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that foccus on Russia did well, with a few beating the index and returning more than 50% to investors in 2019.
CEE monthly bond wrap: CE issuers raise $44.5bn and EE raises $29.9bn in 2019
2019 was a decent year for bond issues in Central and Eastern Europe, but still behind the vintage year of 2017.
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OUTLOOK 2020 Turkmenistan
Official data unreliable but growth is falling. Budgetary crisis grinding down quality of life. Vital gas export volumes, however, show signs of recovery. Fictional country “Turgistan” in new Netflix action thriller seems to have hit a nerve.
OUTLOOK 2020 Ukraine
2020 will be a big year for Ukraine as there is a possibility that a peace deal could be reached with Russia and the effects of the first round of reforms made by the new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration start to kick in.
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OUTLOOK 2020 Russia
Russia’s economy is basically healthy and solid. It’s just not growing fast enough. The Kremlin is attempting to address this problem, but so far its efforts have been off to a slow start. 2020 should be the year when the pace picks up.
OUTLOOK 2020 Romania
More political uncertainty ahead in Romania as the government mulls early elections, after adopting a budget that analysts warn is subject to multiple risks.
OUTLOOK 2020 Kosovo
An uncertain start to 2020 for Kosovo which doesn't yet have a government in place after the October 2019 snap election.
OUTLOOK 2020 Lithuania
Lithuania enjoyed robust growth in 2019 but this is forecast to decline in 2020 given the deteriorating external environment.
Russian rallies: RTS index breaks above 1,600 for the first time in seven years
Russia's RTS index broke through the 1,600 mark for the first time in seven years just as the traditional spring rally gets underway.