KABANOVSKY: Has Putin created a martyr?

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin February 17, 2024

It is a sad day for anyone interested in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Alexey Navalny, for all his flaws, represented a brave, unyielding voice in the wilderness refusing to succumb to fear of a merciless regime.

IIF’s pessimistic scenario forecasts dire results for the Middle East if a regional war breaks out

Ben Aris in Berlin February 16, 2024

The recent escalation in hostilities in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has heightened the risk of a wider and prolonged conflict that would significantly impact the global economy and have dire consequences for the Middle East.

McFAUL: Trump does not understand or value Nato and that’s very dangerous

Michael McFaul in Stanford February 14, 2024

I cannot recall another instance in history when a US president invited an enemy to attack our allies. Imagine how those comments sound in Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland.

KSE: Just under 10% of foreign companies working in Russia have left, more than half are staying

Kyiv School of Economics February 13, 2024

As of February 4, 2024, 356 international companies (9.6% of the total number of entries in the KSE database, or 27.8% of the companies that generated revenue in Russia in 2022) have entirely ceased operations in Russia.

Tashkent Stock Exchange raising its game on marked gains in reform and retail

Odil Musaev February 10, 2024

Delving into pivotal shifts of Uzbekistan's capital market seen throughout 2023, Odil Musaev, managing director at investment banking boutique Alkes Research, offers some insights.

COMMENT: An Armenia-Azerbaijan ‘peace’ is further away than ever

Neil Hauer in Yerevan February 8, 2024

Over the past few months, speculation over an impending Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty has reached a fever pitch.

Expert warns Houthis’ Red Sea attacks could be precursor to more regional instability

bne IntelliNews February 7, 2024

ECFR’s Africa director says Houthi attacks on shipping are a “fundamental shift” in the security threat in the region.

PANNIER: Response to Bishkek thermal power plant explosion lifts lid on Central Asia relations

Bruce Pannier February 6, 2024

And what’s seen is quite encouraging.

CENUSA: EU faces consequences of geopolitical crises as Eastern Europe enters complex political-electoral phase

Denis Cenusa in Giessen January 30, 2024

Eurosceptics' ability to exploit protests will test the EU's potential to influence its Eastern Neighbourhood. At the same time, electoral cycles in Eastern Europe favour the consolidation and perpetuation of autocracies.

Serbia’s accession risks bringing a second Orban into the EU

bne IntelliNews January 30, 2024

Concerns are growing over candidate country Serbia's democratic institutions and lack of alignment with EU foreign policy, says comment published by ECFR.

McFAUL: Underestimating the Russian threat to Europe

Michael McFaul in Stanford January 26, 2024

Over the last two years, I have given a lot of talks around the United States and the world about the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I have a talk discerning the causes of the war and the possibility of a Russia-Nato clash.

Red Sea shipping disruptions to hit Europe via industry and inflation

bne IntelliNews January 26, 2024

BMI analysts say Hungary, Ireland and Slovakia to be worst affected, but no major impact on GDP unless Middle East conflict persists.

UBN: Ignore the Headlines - Momentum is Moving in Ukraine’s Direction, not Russia’s

Mark McNamee of UBN in Kyiv January 25, 2024

For all the talk of the Kremlin’s rising confidence since late 2023, the reality is in fact far from encouraging for Russia. Rather oddly, a nation mired in a foreign war it cannot easily extricate itself from against a far smaller adversary.

KSE: External conditions to undermine Russia’s macro stability in 2024

Kyiv School of Economics January 24, 2024

External environment has become dramatically less supportive for the Russian economy and critical buffers are coming under pressure, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said in its latest Russia Chartbook released on January 24.

STOLYPIN: No, World War III is not on the horizon

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence January 20, 2024

It has suddenly become unexpectedly and depressingly fashionable to predict the imminence of World War III, and the westward march of Moscow’s grim legions.

ING: What the Red Sea crisis could mean for commodity markets

ING January 19, 2024

Attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis from Yemen on commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea have made some shipowners reluctant to sail via the Suez Canal and Red Sea.

GUSTAFSON: The rise and fall of Russian steel

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington January 16, 2024

In Soviet times, the steel industry was the very symbol of the country’s planned industrialization. The sector revived in the 1990s before flourishing in the noughties, becoming one of Russia's big export-earners. But sanctions have hit it hard.

PANNIER: Rising prominence of Tajiks in terrorist attacks abroad may reflect loss of hope back home

Bruce Pannier January 12, 2024

Just as many Uzbeks were drawn to extremism during dark days of Karimov, growing numbers of Tajik nationals fed up with Rahmon regime are joining Islamic terror groups.

BOFIT: Uncertainty over foreign aid clouds Ukraine’s otherwise better-than-expected economic performance

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) January 8, 2024

Preliminary figures from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Ukrstat) show that Ukraine’s GDP grew by 9.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2023. But the outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty over crucial western funding.