Opinion

COMMENT: Why China sat out on the Ukraine's Swiss peace summit

Ben Aris in Berlin June 25, 2024

China’s failure to show up for Ukraine’s Swiss peace summit in mid-June was a major setback in Kyiv’s attempts to set a new benchmark for the international support of its military struggle with Russia and an attempt to rally the Global South.

Israel emerging as source of tension in Azerbaijan’s special relationship with Turkey

Bahruz Samadov for Eurasianet June 25, 2024

War in Gaza and domestic politics in Turkey create cracks in Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance.

COMMENT: The Kremlin moves to normalise relations with Afghanistan's Taliban

bne IntelliNews June 24, 2024

Ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, Moscow has handed a public relations victory to the Taliban by proposing to take it off the Kremlin's terrorist list.

COMMENT: Azerbaijan’s new strategy is to become a green energy hub

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham June 17, 2024

Ambitions go beyond hydrocarbons as Baku seeks to supply green energy to Southeast Europe.

STOLYPIN: West needs to talk seriously about Ukraine

Mark Galeotti June 14, 2024

We do not have any kind of a common sense of quite what ‘victory’ or ‘defeat’ really mean.

CENUSA: Differentiated EU accession – the imminent decoupling of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Denis Cenusa in Germany June 12, 2024

The only Eastern Partnership countries with Association Agreements (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) entered the EU enlargement package in the period 2022-2023. This separated them from the rest of the EU's eastern neighbouring states.

KSE: Damages to Ukraine’s energy sector exceeded $56bn

Kyiv School of Economics June 12, 2024

As a result of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine, the energy sector suffered direct damages and indirect financial losses in the amount of $56.2bn.

COMMENT: Five important questions ahead of the 2024 Iranian presidential election

Farzan Sabet June 7, 2024

The Islamic Republic of Iran is set to hold a snap presidential election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. With registrations now in, who will make the cut?

COMMENT: Russian tax hikes – important but not large enough

bne IntelliNews May 31, 2024

Russia’s recently announced change to a progressive tax system and hikes to the basic rates for income and corporate tax will reduce the budget deficit, but are unlikely to provide sufficient fiscal tightening to prevent economic overheating.

Ukraine war created “arc of instability” from Balkans to Caucasus

bne IntelliNews May 31, 2024

Armenia, Bosnia, Georgia, Moldova and Serbia are increasingly vulnerable and unstable, says a report published by Carnegie Europe.

COMMENT: Better sanctions are needed to curb Russia’s flourishing war economy

Ben Aris in Berlin May 31, 2024

The Russian economy experienced a sharp contraction of 4.4% following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering fears of a financial crisis as households rushed to withdraw cash and the ruble plummeted over 40% in value.

MACRO ADVISORY: Moscow is playing a long gas game

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory May 30, 2024

The Kremlin has now switched its attention to the gas market. It wants to replace the almost lost European market with new customers in Asia and to diversify the export infrastructure with both new pipeline routes and LNG.

KSE: Russia unlikely to face serious constraints in the current economic environment

Kyiv School of Economics May 29, 2024

Russia’s oil export revenues remain high as energy sanctions fail to offset rising global prices. Improved external dynamics are helping to stabilise the ruble and support the budget.

RAGOZIN: Ukraine’s mobilisation – public support vs private resistance

Leonid Ragozin in Riga May 27, 2024

In Odesa, a young woman was badly bruised when a draft officer attacked her with metal crutches as she protested her friend’s detention by a press gang.

PODCAST: Emerging Global with Farzan Sabet on Iran's Raisi death

bne Tehran bureau May 25, 2024

Join the conversation with Farzen Sabet as we delve into what lies ahead for Iran.

PANNIER: Russia is pushing Turkmenistan out of the natural gas market

Bruce Pannier May 24, 2024

Moscow’s moves to take over Central Asian pipeline capacity for deliveries to China might explain unusual urgency in the Turkmen search for new customers.

BOFIT: Russia’s national goals increasingly focus on nationalist themes and self-sufficiency

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) May 24, 2024

President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated to another term as Russia’s president on May 7 and has launched a new national projects programme to invigorate Russia's economy.

Russia is betting on the wrong horse in Myanmar

Mark van Loon in London May 24, 2024

Another brutal but underreported war is raging in a country that is perhaps not on people’s minds daily, but the civil war in Russia’s ally Myanmar is now in its fourth year.

COMMENT: Azerbaijan invites business to help reconstruct Nagorno-Karabakh

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham May 21, 2024

The massive reconstruction of the region will eventually form a unique showcase of a country rebuilding an entire region from scratch.

COMMENT: Ebrahim Raisi's death could lead to the rise of a new radical generation

Roozbeh Aliabadi of Global Growth Advisors May 21, 2024

Iran's political landscape has been shaped significantly by the complex and often contentious relationships between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the nation's presidents.

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