Opinion
NEMETHY: Is the world heading towards a “polycrisis”?
According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.
OPINION: Ukraine refugee-internal displacement bond gains traction
Tailored offerings can bring in billions of dollars in commercial fresh money from both conventional and ESG/impact-oriented fund managers.
Russian men fleeing the draft are caught between suspected of being pro-Putin and Western closed-door policies
The partial mobilisation announced on September 21 by Russian leader Vladimir Putin has caused an unprecedented exodus of the Russian male population eligible for the draft. But do they support him and can they cross into the EU?
Sanctioned Russian diamonds are reaching the US consumer, but some are getting there legally – for now
Russian state-controlled diamond monopoly Alrosa has been sanctioned but some of its diamonds are making it on to the international market legally. The upcoming eighth package of sanctions will crack down on Russia’s diamond and close loopholes.
EBRD: Reduced gas supplies and inflation to slow growth further in EBRD regions
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects growth in its region will slow as a result of gas supply problems that are feeding an energy crisis. The bank says growth will slow to 2.3% in 2022 in its region and 3% in 2023.
ING: Eurozone PMI suggests the region may already be in recession
The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started.
ING: Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks
On 14 September 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced in her State of the Union speech a set of proposals to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.
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OPINION: Belgrade’s EuroPride parade was a victory against the Kremlin
The triumph of love over hate showed most Serbian citizens want to live in the democratic world despite Moscow’s efforts.
NEMETHY: The dawn of a new era: more expensive energy and wages?
Psychologists say that the human brain suffers from dozens of different biases, perhaps one of the most important of these being “recency bias”. We tend to project the past into the future and Putin's war has radically changed that future.
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PANNIER: Putin arrived with little to offer an SCO summit that showed no real clout
Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.
COMMENT: Armenia-Azerbaijan military escalation is a test for Russian status quo in the region
The new outbreak of fighting tests Russia's relevance in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus and could endanger its growing alliance with Turkey.
PANNIER: At Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, watch the action on the sidelines
Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.
GAV DON: Ukrainian offensive takes territory, but moves the political landscape more
While the territory captured has little strategic importance, the 2,000 square kilometres taken will massively energise and encourage Ukraine’s will to resist, and the will to pay for Ukraine’s resistance within the Nato alliance.
RIDDLE: Elections in wartime – why the September votes matter
On September 11, Russia held regional and municipal elections. 14 of its regions will see direct gubernatorial elections, while six vote for a whole new legislature. Elections are also set for local councils across 11 cities.
COMMENT: Samarkand SCO Summit – dialogue and co-operation in an interconnected world
Uzbekistan's chairmanship in the SCO has come at a moment of great change in the world – a period of "historical fracture", when one era ends and another begins, still unpredictable and unknown.
RIDDLE: Russian elections out of sight
Russia is holding local elections in 14 regions, which are supposed to be boring, but coming in the midst of a war they are more important than usual. However, with the introduction of online voting any chance of a free vote is gone.
GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?
Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.
IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge
Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.
ING: Back to the 80s? What soaring inflation, US rate hikes and a stronger dollar mean for EM sovereign debt
Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.
ING: ECB hikes by a historic 75bp, more hikes in the works
The European Central Bank has decided on the largest rate hike since the start of the monetary union and has given the impression that it is fully determined to do more on September 7.
