Even though overall industrial production growth softened in 2019, some investment-driven sectors outperformed, including those focused on agriculture, oil downstream, chemicals, construction and transportation.
Stock exchange may be rallying but the data on why is just not available to investors playing these murky markets.
No-one wants to rain on the parade, but it would be folly to ignore the “debt volcano” and a competition probe into Turkish banks launched by officials of an administration that “needs some cash”.
Country goes into general election year after wave of street protests against deviations from democracy. There is major political uncertainty, but the economy remains surprisingly robust.
Russia entered 2020 with a spending backlog of around 1% of GDP, which the new cabinet may now start unwinding. With the budget breakeven oil price below $50/bbl there is some space to increase spending.
Efforts to investigate financial crimes have been largely unsuccessful due to endemic corruption within the judiciary.
Balance of payments for 4Q19 suggests weakness in the current account and tells us that as much as $25bn of net portfolio inflows into local currency state bonds (OFZ) may be needed in 2020 in order to avoid ruble depreciation.
Hungary's headline inflation rose remarkably in December, as expected, mainly on the back of energy prices. But what's more important is that core inflation slowed somewhat, so we see the central bank remaining calm.
At 4.0% y/y, December inflation came in slightly above our 3.9% forecast and market consensus. We believe that this will be the peak for many months to come.
As the US tramples on international law and lapdog UK’s PM says nuclear deal can be replaced with something from “the great dealmaker”, respecters of democracy everywhere should side with the lesser of two evils: Iran.
October figures show economic recovery starting to cut the number of jobless.
Industrial production in Czechia fell by 5.7% year-on-year in November as the five year long boom comes to an end.
CEESE had a good year in 2019, with the economies in the region buoyed by increasing domestic consumption and capital spending that allowed the region to decouple from western Europe.
As rockets exploded near the US embassy in Baghdad late on January 8, observers were asking if Tehran’s casualty-free attacks on Iraq bases were just a pre-cursor to the long game.
The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) fell sharply in December, although they remain consistent with regional GDP growth holding steady at around 3.6% y/y in Q4. Robust domestic demand should help to cushion the blow
The Caucasus states are now looking on nervously after the assassination of iconic Iranian general and Commander-in-Chief of the elite Quds Forces Qassem Soleimani as a regional war would be devastating
Just as brusquely as the French president recently discredited Nato (where France's real influence may not be so great), he has done the same with the Western Balkans and the EU enlargement process. And in the EU, France's position is decisive.