ANALYSIS: Is the Turkish lira any less vulnerable than last year?

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 18, 2019

Turkey is beset by any number of economic difficulties and political uncertainty has now entered the equation. Worries that another BoP ‘sudden stop’ is under way also call the country’s currency stability into question.

Erdogan lashes out at FT over report on Turkish central bank’s ‘enhanced’ FX reserves

bne IntelliNews April 18, 2019

Accuses daily and other Western media of falsely portraying Turkey’s economy as “collapsed, finished”.

Erdogan’s nemesis declared mayor of Istanbul but battle for city not over

bne IntelliNews April 17, 2019

Ekrem Imamoglu awarded mandate but analysts note president’s party needs to endure that step to make move for election rerun technically possible.

Turkish government failing to see politics may push economy over cliff-edge: Chatham House fellow

bne IntelliNews April 17, 2019

Degradation of institutional integrity, high short-term FX debt in private sector, low net reserves and paucity of portfolio capital investment inflows may prove fatal, says Fadi Hakura.

Turkey looking for mechanisms to boost sanctions-shielded trade with Iran

bne IntelliNews April 17, 2019

Turkish foreign minister reiterates Ankara’s opposition to US economic attack on Islamic Republic at joint press conference with Iranian counterpart.

Erdogan’s AKP formally submits call for Istanbul election rerun

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2019

Markets won’t like it if new poll is triggered. Investors want administration to get on with fixing Turkey’s messed up economy. Result reversal might put another big crack in country’s democratic foundations.

MARKET ANALYSIS: Turkey spirits lifted by rosier industrial data and an Oval Office meeting

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 16, 2019

Talk turns to whether economy may be pulling out of recession—but a second ‘sudden stop’ in balance of payments might be under way.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Erdogan’s loyalists resort to shooting the messenger

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 15, 2019

Apologies, but a s*** show is a s*** show, whether it’s the latest unemployment figures, PPI data or the finance minister’s unconvincing bid for restorative hot money to address Turkey’s economic morass.

Turning to IMF now “easiest option” for Turkey “and the sooner the better”: analyst

bne IntelliNews April 14, 2019

In 20 years covering country, BlueBay’s Timothy Ash “has not felt this concerned”.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Another rough day out of the office for finance minister Albayrak

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 12, 2019

Turkish assets slide again as Turkey’s hapless economic supremo tells it like it is (isn’t) at a JPMorgan-hosted event in Washington.

HSBC Turkey CEO acquitted of insulting Erdogan by retweeting ‘Hitler’ video

bne IntelliNews April 11, 2019

Defendant tells court an “unjust decision would harm my career and would harm my country’s prestige”.

Turkey’s current account gap shrinks while markets fret over elusive V-shaped recovery

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 11, 2019

Economy has debt albatross slung around its neck. Balance-of-payments risks persist, lira has another torrid day amid waning fundamentals.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Down like a lead balloon. Turkish finance minister’s economic package goes nowhere with investors

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 10, 2019

The day when IMF assistance will realistically be required may be nearing. Turkey risks undermining state budget, one of the few anchors it still has.

HRW report explores Turkey’s jailing of hundreds of lawyers in “major assault on right to fair trial”

bne IntelliNews April 10, 2019

Situation with Turkish criminal justice system “should be of grave concern to everyone in Turkey and internationally” says watchdog.

Russia's RDIF plans internet projects in Turkey with Yandex

bne IntelliNews April 9, 2019

Russia's Fund for Direct Investment (RDIF) and internet major Yandex discusses deals and joint projects in Turkey, the head of the fund Kirill Dmitriev told the press, while announcing the creation of €900mn Russo-Turkish investment fund.

ISTANBUL BLOG: April 8 round-up of Turkey’s ‘debt-fooled' economy

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 8, 2019

Companies stuck on hamster wheel of debt. $28bn of restructurings sought. Institutional integrity “degraded”. “Books not just being cooked” but “boiled, mashed, barbecued, sautéed and finally flambéed in a funeral pyre”.

“They don’t know us”: In presscall with Putin Erdogan says there’s no way Turkey will drop Russian S-400 deal

bne IntelliNews April 8, 2019

Sets up final showdown with Washington. F-35 jets to be withheld from Ankara if it doesn’t budge.

Erdogan clumsily paves a path to overturning Istanbul election defeat

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 8, 2019

But some analysts say he may yet swallow the setback and attempt to turn his fortunes around in a period with no scheduled polls until 2023.

US-Turkey relations: Jitters grow as Pompeo, Cavusoglu tangle over accounts of meeting

bne IntelliNews April 5, 2019

With Turks already on edge over whether regime will accept election reverses, relations with Washington take another turn for the worse.

CEE monthly bond wrap: window swings open for issues

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2019

Opportunity knocked at start of 2019 after US Fed indicated it was retreating from tightening. That switched bond investors to risk-on and yield-hungry, attracting many to Emerging Europe markets.