TURKEY INSIGHT: Follow the (hot) money

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 25, 2020

As banking regulator follows surprise rate hike with relaxation of lenders’ FX swap limits, all the signs are that the Erdogan administration is in the market for a shot in the arm that, ultimately, can only do more damage.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Surprise rate hike not actually a rate hike?

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 24, 2020

“It’s more of a ‘catch-up’” says one analyst. New benchmark rate of 10.25% still below average cost of funding.

Balkan route nations least tolerant of migration

bne IntelliNews September 24, 2020

Acceptance of migrants has declined globally, and the nations of the Western Balkans that bore the brunt of the 2015-2016 migration crisis are now the least tolerant in the world, a new Gallup poll shows.

US ambassador warns Turkey over $2.3bn of unpaid debts owed to pharma companies

bne IntelIiNews September 23, 2020

Debts have ballooned from $230mn a year ago. Payment not forthcoming despite US commerce secretary raising issue with president Erdogan.

Capital forecasts 8 Turkish lira to dollar by year’s end

bne IntelIiNews September 23, 2020

Updates previous expectation of 7.50. As fears mount of currency crisis, IIF notes “historically low non-resident holdings of lira-denominated assets—with only $20.9bn in stocks and $5.8bn in bonds remaining”.

Turkish Medical Association ‘dangerous as coronavirus’ says Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist ally in row over infection figures

bne IntelIiNews September 22, 2020

MHP says body should be shut down after doctors repeat claims that Turkey’s official coronavirus data bear no relation to situation on the ground.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Moody’s warns of autumn peril

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 22, 2020

Ratings agency wary of possible moratorium on FX payments, capital controls and disorderly exchange rate adjustment. But isn’t this all too little, too late from its analysts? The warning signs have been there for years.

International bond investors are selling off local EM debt in all but the best markets

Ben Aris in Berlin September 21, 2020

Emerging markets capital markets have been through a revolution in the last decade, but the coronavirus pandemic and rising political and economic risks in some markets have seen these investors turn tail and flee.

Disasters in the making

Will Conroy in Prague September 19, 2020

Iran, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan among countries ranked most vulnerable by inaugural edition of Ecological Threat Register.

Foreign investors drop net $30mn of Borsa Istanbul shares

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 18, 2020

“Sad to see Turkey's weight in MSCI Emerging Markets index hitting all time low at 0.3%,” remarks observer. Regulator cuts “direct market access” of UBS’ London branch to stock exchange. Garanti BBVA's Spanish parent at lowest level since 1995.

Turkey’s first 'flying car' prototype completes short test flight

bne IntelIiNews September 17, 2020

The "Cezeri" flew up to 33 feet in the air before landing.

Foreign investors' share in Turkey’s sovereign eurobonds falls south of 50%

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 17, 2020

Day also sees Turkish lira slump to latest all-time low.

Pentagon ‘has no plans to withdraw’ from Incirlik nuclear airbase in Turkey

bne IntelIiNews September 17, 2020

Statement comes after Republican senator said US was considering shifting forces to Crete given that the path Turkish president Erdogan is on “is not good”.

Turkey takes assertive role in Caucasus conflict

Ayla Jean Yackley for Eurasianet September 16, 2020

The shift is motivated in part by energy considerations and in part by nationalist politics.

Moody's downgrades 13 Turkish banks, outlooks kept at negative

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 16, 2020

Move follows unscheduled cutting of Turkey’s sovereign rating to all-time low in junk five days ago.

EU’s relationship with Turkey has reached “watershed moment” says foreign policy chief Borrell

bne IntellIiNews September 15, 2020

Remarks to European Parliament come as bloc moves towards possible imposition of sanctions on Ankara over east Mediterranean drilling rights dispute.

Turkey’s industrial production now stands only 1.6% below February peak

bne IntelIiNews September 14, 2020

However, slowing of credit expansion necessitated by latest difficulties of lira may hinder recovery.

Macron draws wrath of Erdogan after ‘attempt at driving wedge’ between Turkey’s people and leader

bne IntelIiNews September 13, 2020

Turkish president tells French counterpart “not to mess” with his country, adding “you’re going to have more problems with me”.

BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: The Borsa Istanbul, part II. Think thrice

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 12, 2020

Latest data shows foreign investors continuing to exit Turkey’s stock exchange. Regulators, meanwhile, have broken up the trading party in football club shares. And officials keep trying to squeeze dubious market lifts out of Ankara’s gas discovery.

Moody’s hits Turkey with downgrade to all-time lowest rating in unscheduled move

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 12, 2020

Says country’s external vulnerabilities are increasingly likely to crystallise in a balance of payments crisis, while its institutions appear unwilling or unable to effectively address the challenges.