The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) has downgraded its short-term forecast by 24% for 2025-2029 compared with its prediction last year.

GWEC Market Intelligence expects more than 350 GW of new offshore wind capacity to be added over the next decade (2025-2034), bringing total offshore wind capacity to 441 GW by the end of 2034.

However, only one-third of this projected new volume will be added in 2025–2029, the first half of the forecast period, said the industry group in its annual offshore wind report.

The last few years have been marked significant economy-wide headwinds, said Feng Zhao, GWEC’s chief research officer. “The sector now faces a perfect storm of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions and industry-specific challenges,” he said.

The series of setbacks includes failed tenders, persistent supply chain challenges, and increasing policy volatility, particularly in the United States where President Donald Trump – with the backing of his administration – appears to be on mission to halt all new wind development.

In addition, delays in expected commissioning dates in APAC are pushing capacity additions further into the forecast period.

Yet most governments and developers remain committed to offshore wind, said GWEC, and the global medium-term outlook remains resolutely optimistic. The sector will see a compound average annual growth rate of 28% until 2029 and 15% up to 2034.

Global offshore wind annual capacity additions are expected to sail past the milestones of 30 GW in 2030 and 50 GW by 2033, forecast the report.

The world’s offshore wind sector installed 8GW of new capacity in 2024, making it the fourth strongest year on record. This pushes the total global offshore capacity to 83 GW – enough to supply electricity to around 73mn homes.

In a year of significant industry activity, 56 GW of fresh capacity was awarded through global government auctions – the highest ever. Another record was set with 48 GW of offshore wind currently under construction worldwide.

While most immediate growth is concentrated in established hubs such as Europe and China, GWEC identifies growing momentum in Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Governments in Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and Colombia are now developing supportive policy frameworks in partnership with industry players, helping to prepare the ground for wider regional expansion.

The report also points to notable policy advances in emerging markets such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, indicating a shift there towards regulatory frameworks that support long-term deployment.

“China and Europe will continue to dominate offshore wind growth going forward but their global market share in cumulative installations is expected to drop to 89% in 2029 and 84% in 2034, because of growth in markets outside the two key markets in APAC, North America and Latin America,” said GWEC.  

The GWEC report cautions that the sector is approaching a pivotal juncture. While the case for offshore wind remains robust, the industry faces growing pressure to reform auction models and share risks more effectively between public and private stakeholders, it says.

 Such reforms, it argues, are essential if the sector is to meet its potential in delivering reliable and large-scale clean energy.

“Offshore wind is powering into a new era. The fundamentals of offshore wind remain rock solid, and countries around the world – from Brazil to Australia – are backing offshore wind to deliver clean, secure, home-grown energy at scale,” said Rebecca Williams, deputy CEO of GWEC. “In doing so, they are putting themselves at the leading edge of the next Industrial Revolution, one where growth and prosperity will be built through widespread electrification.”

Acknowledging recent challenges, Williams continued: “Of course, the sector has faced challenges, and in particularly policy instability in the US has had a significant impact, as well as failed auctions in mature markets. But the path forward is clear and achievable – smarter auctions, better policies, and faster delivery.”

She concluded: “With record levels of construction and auctions, 2025 is a pivotal year. This is the moment for industry and governments to come together, knuckle down and deliver the next stage of offshore wind’s growth.”