Lebanon

RAGOZIN: Ukraine’s “tide is turning” PR push has backfired

Leonid Ragozin in Latvia August 14, 2026

The PR surge which heralded that the “tide is turning” in the Ukrainian conflict is ending up in a debacle. Ukraine can inflict tangible damage on the Russian economy but Russia can take it and give it back in spades.

US munitions stockpiles run low as Iran war outpaces Ukraine as main drain

Ben Aris in Berlin August 11, 2026

US military munitions stockpiles have shrunk sharply since the war with Iran began, with the five-month-old conflict now the main driver of depletion even for weapon systems the US had previously donated heavily to Ukraine.

Lebanon stays at the table despite Rome II

Beirut bureau August 10, 2026

Rome produced no breakthrough. The latest round of talks between Lebanon and Israel in the Italian capital ended without decisive results, with the negotiating process moving at an exceptionally slow pace.

Iran issues Gulf-wide energy hit list if Trump carries through on threats to destroy Iran’s energy sector

Ben Aris in Berlin Ben Aris in Berlin August 2, 2026

US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s energy sector in a joint operation with Israel, prompting Tehran to issue a hit list of some of the most valuable assets in the Gulf if he carried through with the threat.

Emerging-market ratings have absorbed the Iran war so far, but the buffers are thinning - Fitch

Ben Aris in Berlin August 1, 2026

Emerging-market sovereign ratings have proved largely resilient to the US-Iran war in the first half of 2026, Fitch Ratings finds in its Global Emerging Markets Credit Brief for 3Q26 even though the outlook for a third is deteriorating.

Hormuz squeeze on ammonia draws foreign bidders to Odesa Port Plant

Ben Aris in Berlin July 29, 2026

Hormuz squeeze on ammonia draws foreign bidders to Odesa Port Plant Four companies from the US, Asia and the Middle East are studying data on Ukraine's war-damaged fertiliser plant as the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens global ammonia supply.

Ukraine's scam call centres earn $1bn a month, study finds

Ben Aris in Berlin July 28, 2026

Ukraine's scam call-centre industry generates as much as $1bn a month, according to a new report by the Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), which estimates that around 60,000 Ukrainians work in the trade.

Lebanese prime minister arrives in Iraq to advance Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline talks

IntelliNews Beirut bureau July 27, 2026

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam arrived in Baghdad to advance energy cooperation with Iraq, with the revival of the Kirkuk-Tripoli crude oil pipeline emerging as the centrepiece of talks.

Ukraine's Caspian Sea strikes merge the Iran and Ukraine wars

Ben Aris in Berlin July 27, 2026

“Zelensky bombed the Iranian vessel on the Caspian for the same reason his people paid Loomer to come to Kyiv and interview him: a PR campaign to try to win over Trump.”

Kuwait signs $16bn pipeline deal with Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR despite Iran attacks

Ben Aris in Berlin July 27, 2026

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said on July 25 that its subsidiary Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback agreement covering its entire crude oil pipeline network with a consortium of Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR, in wh

Brent tops $100/bbl as Middle East tensions build, ING says gold struggles for safe-haven bid

Ben Aris in Berlin July 27, 2026

Oil prices surged this week, with ICE Brent breaking above $100/bbl for the first time since May, as escalation in the Persian Gulf and fears of a widening conflict put a significant amount of supply at risk, ING said

Vance, Caine warn Trump against Iran escalation as US pauses air strikes

Ben Aris in Berlin July 27, 2026

The US military had not announced new air strikes on Iran as of July 26, the first pause since Washington's bombing campaign began nearly two weeks earlier, after Vice President JD Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen.

Iran war closes Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb simultaneously for first time ever

Ben Aris in Berlin Ben Aris in Berlin July 24, 2026

For the first time since records began, both of the Middle East's great oil chokepoints are shut at once for the first time ever. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28, and now Bab al-Mandeb Strait is also shut.

Lebanon pursues dual-track diplomacy with Syria and Israel to reduce regional exposure

Beirut bureau July 16, 2026

Beirut is engaging Damascus and Israel directly under a "zero problems" policy, signing a framework agreement with Israel and agreeing a joint committee with Syria. The Israeli track stays fragile.

Trump vows to remove Syria from terrorism list

bna Cairo bureau July 9, 2026

US President Donald Trump said Syria had become "very stable" and confirmed that Washington would move to remove the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, following its decision to lift sanctions on Damascus.

Lebanon's paper peace: Aoun signs a framework the balance of power may not let him deliver

Josiane Hajj Moussa in Beirut July 8, 2026

When Lebanese and Israeli envoys signed a US-brokered framework agreement in Washington on June 26, they turned months of cautious, indirect contacts into a formal diplomatic process — the most significant opening between the two states since 1983.

ING: Oil bounces on Persian Gulf re-escalation

Warren Patterson head of commodities strategy at ING, Ewa Manthey commodities strategist at ING July 8, 2026

The re-escalation of fighting in the Persian Gulf in the last days has reignited supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher amid questions about the direction of US-Iran peace talks, ING said in a note.

Iran-US peace talks moved to Qatar from Switzerland

bne IntelliNews June 29, 2026

Technical talks between Iran and the US that had been due to take place in Switzerland have been moved to Qatar, Lebanese media reported suggesting the diplomatic track may survive the weekend's military escalation.

Israel-Lebanon deal proceeds with partial IDF withdrawal while Hezbollah protests ignite

IntelliNews Beirut bureau June 29, 2026

A trilateral framework agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the US took effect on June 29, initiating a phased IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon as Hezbollah supporters protested in Beirut.

Coal’s unexpected comeback on Middle East conflict energy security fears

Ben Aris in Berlin June 26, 2026

The disruption to global energy markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East has triggered an unexpected resurgence in coal demand, as energy security fears outweigh Climate Crisis commitments.

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