Record-breaking temperatures for the time of year are likely to occur across a large part of western Europe in the coming days as a historically unprecedented heatwave intensifies.

Temperatures will widely exceed 40°C across Spain and parts of France, with the UK June temperature record potentially being beaten as well. Large parts of Europe will be 14-15°C above the long-term average as the heatwave peaks on June 30 and July 1.

“Maximum mean summer temperatures for West Central Europe are now higher than France was from 1961-1990,” says climatologist Lee Simons. “The rate of European warming is higher than any other continent.”

Countries across southern Europe – particularly Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey – are reporting daytime temperatures consistently exceeding 40°C, with some regions pushing toward 45°C, especially inland. North Africa and parts of the eastern Mediterranean, including Cyprus and southern Turkey, are also being severely affected. Night-time temperatures are unusually high as well, providing little relief and increasing the risk of heat stress.

The European meteorological services have issued an amber warming, but some EU countries have already issued red alerts, urging people to avoid outdoor activity during peak hours, stay hydrated and check on vulnerable individuals. Hospitals in Rome, Athens and Madrid have reported a spike in heat-related emergencies, including dehydration, heatstroke and complications among the elderly and those with chronic conditions.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that such heatwaves are becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged due to climate change. Meteorologists say this current event is being driven by a high-pressure system trapping hot air over the region, compounded by dry ground conditions.

In addition, agricultural output may suffer, particularly for heat-sensitive crops such as olives, grapes and vegetables. Video posted on social media shows that crops in Hungary have already died, while crop yields in countries such as France are expected to fall this year. Water reserves are also under strain, with several regions having reintroduced restrictions on non-essential water use.

Forecasts suggest the heatwave could persist into early July, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. Temperatures may moderate slightly in northern Europe, but the Mediterranean basin will remain subject to exceptionally hot conditions.

Parts of the Mediterranean are now running more than 5-6°C above their long-term average as well, or around eight standard deviations from the average. In statistics anything more than two standard deviations from the average is usually considered an extreme departure from normal.