Washington has halted the delivery of missiles used in air defence and ammunition to Kyiv on July 1, claiming its own stocks were dwindling causing consternation in Kyiv which is battling to hold off massive Russian drone and missile barrages on a daily basis.

“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in an emailed statement confirming the report. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.”

US Secretary for Defence Pete Hegseth has halted supplies of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine that were promised by the Biden administration.

The extent of the pause is not clear, as a White House spokesperson said that the decision does not mark the end of support for Ukraine, but Hegseth ordered those supplies be postponed “a few weeks” while the Pentagon reviews US ammunition stockpiles. Weapons in dumps in Poland intended for Ukraine have also been ordered home.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the day before, deliveries of weapons to Ukraine that were already in Poland were stopped. Among those weapons are dozens of desperately needed Patriot interceptor missiles, as well as thousands of 155-mm high-explosive shells for howitzers, over 100 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles carried by F-16s, more than 250 GMLRS precision missile systems, dozens of Stinger short-range shoulder-fired missiles that keep Russia's fighter jets at bay, AIM air-to-air missiles and grenade launchers.

While Ukraine has developed sophisticated and deadly drones that have effectively frozen Russia’s ability to make infantry advances on the battlefield, it produces no missiles or air defence ammunition, which are essential for protecting Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.

As bne IntelliNews reported, this is the third time that the US has cut off military supplies to Ukraine. Weapons deliveries stopped at the start of last year, after the US ran out of money for Ukraine. US President Donald Trump also ordered a halt immediately after being inaugurated at the start of this year, but his advisers persuaded him to restart deliveries almost immediately. Now Kyiv has been cut off again at a time where it is increasingly clear it is running out of air defence ammo, which will leave the skies open to Russian attacks for the rest of the summer.

The decision comes as Russia repeats its tactics of last year, when it launched a massive barrage in January to deplete ammo stocks and followed with a second barrage in March that destroyed all of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generating capacity. Since May this year, Ukraine has faced a renewed devastating missile barrage, including a record 537 missiles and drones launched during a single overnight attack on June 30, according to the Ukrainian government.

Last month, Ukrainian air defences destroyed over 4,750 enemy air targets, and Ukrainian Defence Forces' aviation accounted for 646. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence did not receive official notifications from the US about the suspension or revision of the schedule for delivering promised defence aid and has asked for confirmation and a clarification.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said that delays in military aid only encourage Russia to persist with the war and attack rather than seek peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the US decision, saying it will only “bring the end of the special military operation closer.”

Ukraine’s allies brave face

Ukraine’s allies tried to put a brave face on the decision that will put the entire responsibility for supporting Ukraine on Europe’s shoulders. The policy shift was led by Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, Politico reported. Colby has argued that the US is overcommitted abroad and called on Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence.

“The Pentagon continues to provide the president with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end,” Colby said in a statement. “At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving US forces’ readiness for Administration defence priorities.”

The US decision was likely influenced by the 12-day war between Israel, a key US ally, and Iran, and the White House has already admitted that some weapons deliveries intended for Ukraine were diverted to the Middle East conflict. Israel dramatically depleted its arsenals during the two week war with Iran, firing several hundred PAC-3s, possibly up to 1,000, to bring down Iranian inbound missiles, according to reports.

European allies admitted that while they have pledged tens of billions of euros in support and promised to build arms production factories in Ukraine to make it self-reliant, for the meantime they remain dependent on US weapons supplies.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, fresh from a Nato summit in The Hague, which saw large increases in defence spending commitments, said that Kyiv will need continued military support from Washington for the meantime.

"When it comes to Ukraine in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get. Last week, President Trump and President Zelenskiy discussed this, focusing specifically on air defence," said Rutte. He added that support for Ukraine from European partners is increasing and "already reaches $45bn," but this support is not immediate, and the allies “cannot operate effectively” without "practical support from the US."

"It is in the interests of the US not to lose the war in Ukraine. Having Russia on the borders with Europe is a danger. The security of Europe is the security of the US; everything is completely interconnected," he added.

Although it is still unclear how much of the weaponry has been blocked from shipment and when exactly this will affect the front lines, the message is clear: Washington is moving away from the war. "Ukraine is no longer a priority, it is no longer at the centre of US foreign policy," said Rutte.

Key weapons halted

Details of what has been affected are still emerging, but White House confirmed that it has stopped plans to deliver several key weapons systems that were committed by the departing Biden administration at the end of last year. These include: the latest PAC3 Patriots missiles, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7 and Hellfire missiles.

The Kremlin will be pleased with the decision, which is distracting from the Ukraine war just as the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) launches a major summer offensive and is taking more territory. As bne IntelliNews reported, the AFR now has full control of the Luhansk region for the first time – the only one of the four regions it annexed last year that the Kremlin fully controls. Assaults have also been launched on the eastern Ukrainian region of Sumy, with 50,000 Russian troops massed on the border, and Odesa, which may become the next military target.

In the last two months Russian troops have made the most territorial gains than they have in the last year and a half. In June Russian forces took more Ukrainian territory than in any month since November 2023, advancing in the eastern regions as well as carrying out the largest air strike since the full-scale invasion began. At the last Istanbul meeting on June 3, the head of the delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, warned that Russia could take more regions – as many as eight, he threatened.

Made in Ukraine

With European stockpiles running equally low, the strategy has been slowly switching from tapping Western stockpiles, to building factories in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reports that Ukraine now produces between 40% and 50% of all the weapons it needs, but the progress has been largely in the simpler weapons raising the question: can Ukraine go it alone? For now, Kyiv remains entirely dependent on the West for the sophisticated and long-range offensive and defensive items like Patriot, HIMARS and ATACMS missile systems.

Ukraine has developed the R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile that was used to sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva in April 2022 that has been since adapted to land use. Zelenskiy announced in September last year that it has developed and tested its own cruise missile, Palyanytsia. It was first deployed in August, and it has a range of approximately 600-700 km, but it is not in mass production and has played little role in the war so far.

Russia remains far ahead of Ukraine in the development of cruise and ballistic missiles. The newest addition is the Oreshnik ICBM missile that has a range of 5,000km and was fired for the first time in November after the US authorised Ukraine to use Nato-made long-range weapons on targets inside Russia proper. The Oreshnik test was widely taken as a warning to Europe as the missile puts most European capitals into Russia’s range.

Ukraine’s allies are rushing out projects to beef up Ukraine’s defence sector under the so-called Danish model, but admit that most of the projects will take at least a year to come online. Currently there are at least eight foreign defence manufacturers which have either opened or are preparing to launch arms production facilities in Ukraine. The facilities include the production of armoured vehicles, artillery systems, ammunition, drones and small arms. Germany, the Czech Republic, Canada, Turkey and Latvia already have active operations, while the United States and the United Kingdom are in advanced planning stages.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 2 that Berlin will fund the production of over 500 long-range weapons in Ukraine and representatives of the German government have already signed the first contract to finance boosting Ukrainian production of these weapons. The project includes the production of over 500 Antonov-196 kamikaze drones (AN-196), which have a flight range of 1,200 kilometres and carry explosive charges weighing around 50 kilograms, which will be ready in the coming months. However, deadly as these drones are, they are useless in countering Russia’s missile threat.

Germany leads the way in investing into Ukraine’s defence sector, but most of the plans remain just that – plans. Weapons manufacturers – including MBDA, Quantum Systems, Diehl, FFG, Helsing – have travelled to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy and expressed interest in investing. This includes developing projects in the areas of air defence, artillery, reconnaissance and strike UAVs, but all these proposals remain on the drawing board for now.