Geopolitics in the Caucasus was already unstable before the war between Israel and Iran broke out at the weekend. Now they have become more confused and threaten to destabilise the region further.

The Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure on June 13 have pushed long-simmering tensions in the Middle East into open conflict. While the immediate consequences are unfolding in Iran and Israel, the ripple effects are already being felt across the region — including in Azerbaijan.

Although Azerbaijan is not a direct party to the confrontation, its strategic location and complex foreign relations mean that the consequences may be significant. The Baku-based political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu warns in a commentary for Jam News that Azerbaijan  must prepare for multiple risks, from energy security to internal social pressures.

“If an open war breaks out between Israel and Iran, or if Iran begins to view countries in the region as ‘Israeli allies’ and targets them, Azerbaijan may come under significant pressure,” Shahinoglu said.

The Israeli strikes reportedly hit sensitive Iranian sites, including the Natanz nuclear facility, and have killed high-ranking figures such as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami. Iran retaliated with hundreds of drones and cruise missiles targeting cities across Israel, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” in retaliation. The attack on Iran by Israel now threatens to destabilise the entire region and an attack by Iran on US military bases in the region could bring the US into the escalating war.

“Israel received authorisation from US President Donald Trump to strike Iran,” said Shahinoglu. “The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution and Rafael Grossi’s statement that ‘Iran could produce several nuclear bombs’ pushed Tel Aviv to press the military button.”

For Azerbaijan, energy exports are the key concern. If regional infrastructure is damaged, Europe’s reliance on Azerbaijani gas could increase, raising Baku’s geopolitical leverage. However, Shahinoglu cautions that this also brings risks. “There could be logistical threats, cyberattacks, or pressure on transport corridors,” he said.

Another layer of complexity stems from Azerbaijan’s ethnic and cultural ties with Iran, which is home to a very large Azeri ethnic minority. “Our compatriots in Iran may seek refuge in Azerbaijan to escape the war — and we must be ready to receive them,” Shahinoglu noted. He added that one of Israel’s aims may be to destabilise Iran from within, potentially influencing national identity debates in Azerbaijan.

The regional realignment is already reshaping diplomacy. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is preparing for a visit to Turkey — a move Shahinoglu links to the current crisis. “Iran is Armenia’s main ally. But if Yerevan maintains its ties with Tehran at the same level, it could harm its relations with the West,” he said.

Following two wars with Azerbaijan, Armenia was already in a difficult position, having abandoned its tradition reliance on Russia for security. Yerevan is still in the middle of remaking its security relations and has pivoted to Europe, so its friendship with Tehran has suddenly become a liability as it faces down a still aggressive Azerbaijan.

Elman Fattah, founder of ResPlatforma and a political commentator, attributes the escalation to failed leadership. “Prime Minister Netanyahu has pushed dialogue into the background, while Iran has replaced peace proposals with the rhetoric of struggle,” he said. “Peace is not a luxury for this region — it is a right to life.”

Fattah also pointed to a shared internal weakness on both sides. “Today’s Israeli attacks on Iran show that regional tensions have reached a critical point. Sadly, this situation is the result of leaders with decisive power on both sides choosing confrontation over compromise.”

Diplomatic mediation by the US and Oman may still offer a path forward. However, should this effort fail, Azerbaijan — like many others — may be forced to navigate an increasingly volatile regional landscape.