Uzbek businesses, public expect inflation to keep rising

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent November 22, 2023

Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan rose by 0.2 percentage points in October to 13.7%.

The central bank said that 59% of respondents said that the dynamics of the exchange rate was the main factor in determining expectations. This was followed by the factors of an increase in the price of fuel and energy resources (49%) and an increase in utility tariffs (36%).

“The business forecast for inflation is also rising. However, the current figures are noticeably lower than at the beginning of the year,” the regulator noted.

In October, average inflation expected by entrepreneurs was 14.4% (+0.2 pp).

The three main factors influencing the forecasts coincide with the responses of the general population. Currency fluctuations were leading (62%), followed by hiked fuel prices (47%) and utility tariffs (37%).

In addition, a significant proportion of respondents noted transport costs (32%).

Consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan rose 1.04% m/m in October. Annual inflation at the end of October was 8.98% y/y, slightly down compared to September.

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