Southeast Europe / Opinion

NEMETHY: Is the world heading towards a “polycrisis”?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors October 5, 2022

According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.

ING: Eurozone PMI suggests the region may already be in recession

Bert Colijn Senior Economist Eurozone for ING September 26, 2022

The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started.

OPINION: Belgrade’s EuroPride parade was a victory against the Kremlin

Ann Smith in New York September 20, 2022

The triumph of love over hate showed most Serbian citizens want to live in the democratic world despite Moscow’s efforts.

PANNIER: Putin arrived with little to offer an SCO summit that showed no real clout

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 18, 2022

Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.

PANNIER: At Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, watch the action on the sidelines

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 13, 2022

Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.

GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington September 11, 2022

Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.

IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge

Philip Barrett economist for the IMF September 11, 2022

Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.

ING: Back to the 80s? What soaring inflation, US rate hikes and a stronger dollar mean for EM sovereign debt

James Wilson sovereign EM strategist at ING September 11, 2022

Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.

ING: ECB hikes by a historic 75bp, more hikes in the works

Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro for ING Research September 9, 2022

The European Central Bank has decided on the largest rate hike since the start of the monetary union and has given the impression that it is fully determined to do more on September 7.

NEMETHY: Demographics and Cost of Capital

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors September 5, 2022

While there are short-term fluctuations in interest rates caused by economic circumstances and central bank policies, there are also long-term structural trends affecting interest rates.

Exiled editor warns of fear, loathing and wishful thinking in Turkey ahead of Erdogan fight for survival

bne IntelIiNews August 31, 2022

Those who want to see the back of Turkey’s president of two decades at the polls risk “underestimating the skills of a political animal”, says Yavuz Baydar.

ING: Double-digit eurozone inflation within touching distance and there is nothing the ECB can do about it

Bert Colijn, Carsten Brzeski August 23, 2022

Supply shocks continue to plague the eurozone economy, causing inflation to show few signs of abating in the short run.

What the 2024 US presidential election means for Emerging Europe

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow August 20, 2022

In the context of severely heightened security concerns across Emerging Europe, the 2024 US presidential election is already seen as a significant risk for the region.

COMMENT: Turkey moves closer to Russia, but is immune to Western sanctions

Denis Cenusa in Germany August 17, 2022

Since the war in Ukraine started Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has deftly placed himself between the two warring parties and made himself indispensable to both. Turkey hopes to increase its geopolitical clout and tap the Russian market.

MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Brussels needs to jump-start the Western Balkan accession process

Gunter Deuber in Vienna, Fjorent Rrushi in Tirana, Ivona Zametica in Sarajevo July 13, 2022

Only when the Western Balkans is integrated into the EU, and the EU reforms itself, can Brussels really turn its attention to Ukraine or other potential accession candidates.

NEMETHY: The riskiest macroeconomic environment of the 21st Century!

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors July 12, 2022

In my opinion, the macro environment is riskier than before the Dotcom Bubble and before the Great Financial Bubble. Why? A nasty cocktail of factors which may reinforce each other:

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