The first direct meeting between the Kremlin and Bankova for negotiations since the start of the war in Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16 ended in failure with little progress being made.

Analysts have pointed to the fact that the two warring parties have held a direct meeting for the first time is some sort of progress, but almost nothing was achieved, as both sides laid out that there have been largely immovable demands.

The Russia-Ukraine session began around 1:30 p.m. local time on May 16, opened by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who urged delegates to agree to a ceasefire as soon as possible.

Ahead of the talks, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg met with the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha as well as officials from France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Russian demands

The Russian delegate was led by Russian presidential advisor Vladimir Medinsky, who led the previous 2022 failed Istanbul peace deal that nearly brought the war to an end in the first month of fighting. Victoria Nuland, who was the US representative in Ukraine at the time, admitted in an interview last year that the deal failed after the US and UK blocked it, telling Zelenskiy to “fight on.”

Medinsky listed an updated list of demands by the Kremlin to halt the hostilities now that included:

• Neutral Ukraine — no foreign troops or weapons of mass destruction on Ukrainian soil.
• No reparations — mutual waiver of any claims for compensation for damages caused by the war.
• Rights of Russian speakers — Ukraine must adopt European standards regarding the rights of minorities and put an end to "nationalistic propaganda."
• Recognition of territories — Ukraine should not claim and express constitutional objections to Russia regarding five Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea), and seeks international recognition.
• Condition of immediate ceasefire — Ukrainian troops must withdraw from all five regions claimed by Russia.

Medinsky even upped the ante, saying that Russia was “ready for an endless war” against Ukraine and threatened to seize more regions if a deal is not cut including the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. "We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?" he asked the Ukrainian side, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

When Russian journalists asked him if Russia was proposing to seize five new regions in addition to the five it already occupies, he replied: “We said eight,” the RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan related on X.

Ukraine’s supporters pointed out that Russia’s blitzkrieg invasion was halted by the heroic resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) that scrambled to Kyiv’s defence, and the Javelin anti-tank missiles that devastated Russia’s armoured assault, supplied by Trump himself.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been insisting that Russia adhere to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire suggested by US president Donald Trump in March as the basis for any further talks.

Medinsky’s demands show the two sides are still very far apart and that real negotiations are still stalled. Russia has countered Zelenskiy's demands with a list of conditions that must be fulfilled before ceasefire talks can start.

However, the one thing the two sides did agree on is an immediate POW exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. That follows on from another very large prisoner exchange made over Easter.

Tense talks

The talks were tense as the two sides scored points from each other. Last week Putin offered direct talks in Istanbul with Zelenskiy but then failed to show up and sent instead a low-level delegation – a diplomat snub to Zelenskiy who made the trip in person.

When talks between the two sides eventually happened on May 16, the Russian delegation demanded that the US delegation in Istanbul, including all three of Trump’s top negotiators on Ukraine – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the two special envoys Stephen Witkoff and Keith Kellogg -- be excluded from the talks.

The Ukraine side also took a dig at the Russian delegation by insisting on a Russia-Ukrainian interpreter and refusing to speak Russian, despite the fact that they all speak perfect Russian and it is the working language in Ukraine’s presidential administration as Zelenskiy himself was born a Russian-speaker.

Now the talks have ended, the EU is likely to follow through with its threat of imposing new sanctions.

"The information was clear: the Russian side did not show goodwill, the Russian side was not willing to negotiate. The Russian side set absolutely unacceptable conditions again, not only for Ukraine, but also for all of us," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the weekend during an EU summit in Albania.

The EU is preparing to tighten the screws on Russia through a fresh round of sanctions that will target the energy and financial sectors, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on May 16, Euronews reported.

"President Zelenskiy was ready to meet. President Putin never showed up. And this shows the true belief of President Putin: he does not want peace," von der Leyen said as she arrived at a summit of European leaders in Albania. "For us, it's important: we want peace. And therefore, we have to increase the pressure on President Putin till he is ready for peace."

A Commission spokesperson also said new sanctions on Nord Stream would help to "dissuade any interest from investors in pursuing any activity" in the controversial project. US investors have expressed an interest in taking the pipelines over and restarting Russian gas deliveries to Europe.

Estonia said that Moscow had briefly sent a SU-35 fighter jet into Nato airspace over the Baltic Sea after the Estonian navy tried to prevent a Russian-bound Gabon-flagged oil tanker called the Jaguar, said to be part of a "shadow fleet,” from entering the Russian dirt of Primorsk from international waters, Reuters reported.

The Jaguar, previously named the Argent, had earlier this year loaded oil at the Russian port of Ust-Luga, sailed to India and returned to Primorsk, LSEG tracking data showed. The EU has so far blacklisted over 350 vessels belonging to the "shadow fleet" and is willing to expand the catalogue in the coming weeks.

The incident is the most significant clash between East and West military forces in the Baltic Sea to date and is seen as a precursor of what any attempt to block Russian-linked shipping in the Baltic Sea could lead to.

Kremlin playing for more time

The Kremlin continues to muddy the water and play for more time, in the hope that the Trump administration, bored with the war, either pressures Zelenskiy into meeting some of Putin’s conditions or withdraws its support entirely.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy is possible, but only if delegations “reach certain agreements.” Zelenskiy continues to insist on unconditional ceasefire and was backed by a meeting of the top coalition of the willing EU leaders the weekend prior to the Istanbul meeting, who threatened to impose new “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia if Putin doesn't call an immediate pause in hostilities.

Peskov noted that those agreements that were reached in Istanbul on May 16 must be fulfilled, including the exchange of prisoners 1,000 for 1,000. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov told reporters after the nearly two-hour meeting at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace that both sides had agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each in the near future, without specifying a date.

Medinsky confirmed the POW swap deal, saying he was “satisfied” with the negotiations and added that the Kremlin would consider Kyiv’s request for a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting.

Peskov also said that if a deal is struck, it is important for the Kremlin to know who from Kyiv will sign any documents and if they have sufficient authority – a somewhat disingenuous comment, given there is a question mark over Medinsky’s authority, who is a mere Putin advisor on history and neither a minister nor a veteran diplomat. The day before Zelenskiy dismissed the Russian negotiation team as “decorative,” arguing they have no decision-making power. Medinsky responded saying he and his delegates “have the power to make decisions” as Moscow sees the talks meeting as a continuation of the 2022 negotiations. Russia’s two heavyweight foreign policy experts, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and presidential foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov, both stayed away from Istanbul

Peskov also said that Ukraine had presented a number of unacceptable conditions to Kyiv.

Following the meeting, Umierov noted that the discussions had covered a ceasefire, humanitarian issues and the possibility of a leader-level meeting.

Trump flip flopping on Ukraine support

Zelenskiy travelled to Istanbul to meet the Russians after Trump issued a post on social media praising Putin’s offer and saying the meeting should happen, “IMMEDIATELY” on his Truth Social platform. However, he failed to criticise Putin after he failed to show up and continues to go soft on Russia’s lack of progress towards halting hostilities.

Trump said in a new interview that Putin has been seeking a deal and named not him but Zelenskiy's lack of "cards" as the main obstacle to peace in a Special Report on Fox News.

"Look, I had a real rough session with Zelenskiy because I didn't like what he said, and he was not making it easy. And I always said he doesn't have the cards, and he doesn't have the cards,” Trump said as cited by Ukrainska Pravda. "[Puitn] is not looking good. And he wants to look good. Don't forget, this was supposed to end in one week. And if he didn't get stuck in the mud with his army tanks all over the place, he would've been in Kyiv in about five hours."

Trump repeated claims he made earlier in the week that only he personally can end the war in a direct meeting with Putin.

"And I always felt there can't be a meeting without me because I don't think a deal is going to get through. There is a lot of hatred on both sides. I have a very good relationship with Putin; I think we'll make a deal," he said.

Trump added that if the diplomatic efforts fail, he is ready to resort to economic pressure on Russia with new sanctions, suggesting that he will act in concert with the EU that has prepared new extreme sanctions that will target Russia’s oil tanker shadow fleet and the banking sector.

US conservative senator Lindsey Graham, who also travelled to Istanbul as part of the US delegation, has proposed a bipartisan bill that would impose 500% tariffs on any country that buys Russia’s oil – including on Chinese and Indian companies that are the Kremlin’s main customers.

"Enough playing games with Russia," Graham said on the results of the negotiations in Istanbul. "Let’s impose 500% tariffs on Russian exports if Putin does not stop his attacks on Ukraine."

However, Trump said these sanctions would be used as a “last resort.”

Ukraine ex-US ambassador lambasted Trumps’ policies

In an embarrassment for the White House, the previous US ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Blink, lambasted Trump for pressuring Ukraine, “the victim in the conflict” and following a soft policy on Russia.

“I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by the US Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia,” Brink said in an op-ed for The Detroit Free Press.

“As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine,” Brink added.

“I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering,” Brink concluded.