Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu submitted his resignation on May 5, after a meeting of his Social Democratic Party (PSD) on the outcome of the first round of the May 4 presidential elections where the ruling coalition’s candidate Crin Antonescu came in third place. 

Ciolacu also announced that the PSD decided to pull out of the ruling coalition. An interim prime minister will be nominated on May 6, acting President Ilie Bolojan said. 

Ciolacu will resign from the position of prime minister, but the Social Democrat ministers will remain in office until a new government is installed, reported HotNews, quoting sources familiar with the debates among the PSD leadership.

The specific arrangements are likely to be discussed on May 6 with the other parties in the ruling coalition, namely the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). The PNL has decided to keep its ministers in office and the UDMR is likely to support a smooth political transition as well.

Far-right, isolationist candidate George Simion won the first round of the presidential election on May 4 with a score of 41%. 

He will face independent, pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan, backed by the reformist Union Save Romania (USR). The PNL will back Dan in the second round on May 18. 

The political constraints prompted by the ongoing presidential elections will delay the emergence of a new majority in parliament over the coming two weeks. 

PSD reset 

The critical development shaping the formation of the new ruling coalition is not the outcome of the presidential elections – but the internal developments within the PSD, Romania’s largest party. The PSD is undergoing a delayed hard reset after it lost traction among its electorate in the recent parliamentary and presidential elections over the past six months. 

At this moment, a new majority formed by the Social Democrats under a new leader (such as presidential candidate Victor Ponta), with far-right parties such as Simion’s Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) looks like the baseline scenario irrespective of the outcome of the presidential elections.

In principle, the PSD could go the other way, particularly if Simion loses the second round of the presidential election, and work with the PNL and reformist USR. However, the PSD does not have a faction that can push the party along such a reformist path.

If formed, a pro-EU ruling majority would face constant pressure from a robust opposition. Its mission would be nearly impossible, even if the country’s pro-EU orientation is secured by a win for Dan in the second round.

Both Simion and his mentor Calin Georgescu have expressed euro-sceptic views. While not explicitly pro-Russian, their rhetoric serves the Kremlin's interests in the region.

Georgescu, who was banned from rzunning in the May presidential election, has often mentioned the end of political life based on parties and spoken of a new form of democracy “exerted directly by the people” – a hint at an imminent shift to autocracy.

Meanwhile, Simion has refused to discuss economic matters until after the presidential elections and he promised to give Georgescu a key role in running the country. 

Certainly, a government controlled by AUR could not deliver the populist and abstract promises made by Georgescu, namely the nationalisation of the factories and natural resources, tight control of prices and generally the end of the market economy as we know it.