The gap between Romanian presidential candidates George Simion and Nicuşor Dan has narrowed to under 10 percentage points ahead of the second round of voting, according to a Verifield poll published by Dan’s campaign, Euronews reported on May 7.

The poll shows Simion, the far-right nationalist frontrunner, with 54.8% of committed voters, compared to 45.2% for Dan, who advocates for closer alignment with the European Union. The margin contrasts with the first-round results, where Simion secured nearly 41% and Dan less than 21%.

However, the survey highlights a significant level of uncertainty among the electorate. Nearly 30% of respondents are not firmly aligned: 14.7% said they were undecided, 8.9% refused to answer, 4.9% indicated they would not vote, and 1.4% planned to annul their vote. Among firm responses, Simion was favoured by 38.9% and Dan by 31.3%, which reveals a gap of only 7.6% of total electorate.

Verifield results point to the fact that Dan’s increased support (compared to the first round of the elections) stems from voters who had backed candidates eliminated in the first round, including those of former prime minister Victor Ponta, despite his nationalist platform that rather resembled Simion's. This transfer of votes has significantly closed the gap and could further reshape the outcome depending on late shifts among undecided voters.

The final result of the runoff, scheduled for May 18, could thus hinge on turnout and the mobilisation of this undecided segment of the electorate.