Historian Karol Nawrocki, running as independent with the backing of radical right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, might have come second in last night’s first round of presidential election in Poland but a very strong showing by the far-right seems to offer him momentum to clinch the presidency in the run-off vote on June 1.

Nawrocki won nearly 29.6% of the vote, trailing the liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski – backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk – who won 31.3%. In nominal terms, the difference was just around 400,000 votes.

But it is far-right candidates that appear to have emerged as kingmakers after the vote. Sławomir Mentzen won 14.8% of the vote, followed by former party colleague Grzegorz Braun at 6.4%.

Their voters are more likely than not to back Nawrocki in the run-off vote in June.

Meanwhile, other centrist and left-leaning contenders did much worse. Parliament Speaker Szymon Hołownia, a part of the Tusk-led coalition of four parties, won just 5%.

Adrian Zandberg, of the left Razem (Together) party, scooped 4.9% of the vote, campaigning against the Tusk government, PiS and the far-right.

Magdalena Biejat, representing the Left – another party in the Tusk government – won a disappointing 4.2%.

Nawrocki seized on the momentum immediately on the election night, addressing Mentzen.

“I want to speak personally to one of my opponents, with whom I was caught up in a wave of hate, hostility and fake news during this campaign … This is not the time for debates, Dr Mentzen. This is the time to save Poland,” Nawrocki said.

Mentzen declared he would only present the strategy utilising the high support he received “soon.”

But analyses have long shown that Mentzen supporters are more inclined to back Nawrocki than Trzaskowski in the run-off vote. 

The results also showed that the Warsaw mayor has been left with a shallower vote pool to fish support from and is going to face a dangerous tightrope act, making sure to keep the centre-left votes while also weakening the far right’s support for Nawrocki.

Trzaskowski strived to do just that on the election night in his speech. He pledged to swiftly pass legislation on key issues, including abortion rights and changes to housing policy – both seen as clear overtures to left-leaning voters.

Trzaskowski also promised to see the dragging judicial reform through to a successful implementation and to raise the personal income tax exemption threshold. A reference to deregulation appeared designed to court Mentzen supporters.

But, the news website Onet reported, the ambience of Trzaskowski’s election night event was much subdued. The mayor quickly left the event, officially to attend his first rally for the bitter campaign ahead of the run-off.

A poll asking voters who they will back on June 1 showed Trzaskowski at 46%, leading Nawrocki by 2pp.