George Simion, leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), secured a decisive lead in the first round of Romania’s presidential elections held on May 4, receiving nearly 41% of the vote, according to partial results as of early on May 5. 

The surge in support for Simion confirms pre-election expectations, but the broader performance of far-right and nationalist candidates, who together garnered 54% of the vote, exceeded forecasts and signals a strong shift in voter sentiment.

Simion received 3.86mn votes, surpassing the combined total he and far-right figure Călin Georgescu obtained in the annulled 2024 elections. Last November, Georgescu led with nearly 23% while Simion followed with under 14%, a combined 37% of the vote or 3.4mn ballots. Georgescu was barred from the current race by the Electoral Bureau due to his extremist rhetoric.

The first-round outcome reflects growing or more politically engaged support for nationalist platforms. It remains unclear, however, whether the momentum stems from agreement with Simion's foreign policy views—marked by scepticism towards the EU and Nato—or a broader frustration with Romania’s traditional political blocs.

Independent candidate and Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan secured second place with 20.98% of the vote, narrowly surpassing ruling coalition candidate Crin Antonescu, who received 20.09%, based on 98.42% of votes counted. Antonescu’s failure to reach the runoff highlights the eroding strength of the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition.

Although both Dan and Antonescu support Romania’s current orientation within the EU and Nato, it is uncertain whether Dan can consolidate the pro-EU vote in the second round. While their combined first-round total narrowly exceeds Simion’s, analysts suggest a large share of Antonescu’s voters may abstain or defect, particularly without explicit coalition endorsement for Dan.

Victor Ponta, who finished fourth with around 13%, ran a campaign echoing Simion’s nationalist rhetoric and his voters are expected to support the AUR leader in the runoff.

Simion’s potential victory raises concerns over possible shifts in Romania’s foreign policy. With AUR holding 30% of seats in parliament, a Simion presidency could bring volatility to the country’s stance on Ukraine, EU cohesion and Moldova. He has previously called for halting EU-backed military and financial aid to Ukraine and made territorial claims that have drawn condemnation from Kyiv and Chișinău.

Simion's economic agenda is more unclear. It is not clear how much of the aggressive rhetoric of Simion's political mentor, Georgescu, would be backed by Simion as president. Simion's nationalist rhetoric should, in principle, have an economic dimension, but it would surface rather indirectly than directly (the far-right parties hold a 30% number of seats in parliament) given the president's limited role in executive matters.

Speaking after exit polls were published, Simion reaffirmed his intent to “restore the constitutional order”, in reference to bringing political mentor Georgescu into a leading role, though how this would be achieved remains unclear.

“I don’t want the power for me,” Simion said. “Romania needs his [Georgescu’s] wisdom … I have only one objective: to give back to the Romanian people what was taken from them.”