Mainstream candidates are fighting for a place in the runoff of Romania’s upcoming presidential election, in which far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion is set to take the lead in the first round on May 4. 

Polls indicate Simion would lose the second round in competition with most of his opponents, who include the ruling coalition’s candidate Crin Antonescu and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, but this is still uncertain. 

The vote has been scheduled for May 4 with a second round on May 18 after the Constitutional Court stopped the presidential election carried out in November-December last year amid intense fraudulent online activity that amplified the rise of radical far-right candidates. This came in the context of the Romanian electorate’s disappointment with the incumbent ruling coalition comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and National Liberal Party (PNL). 

The first round of the annulled presidential elections ended with an unexpected win for Calin Georgescu, a previously obscure politician who employed fascist and pro-Russian rhetoric and appealed directly to voters via TikTok and other social media platforms. 

Since the failed presidential election last year, the electoral authorities banned Georgescu from running for president in 2025, based on his extremist rhetoric, and initiated investigations into the largely illegal but tolerated far-right groups supporting him.

Leading candidates 

In Georgescu’s place, Simion has emerged as the leading far-right, isolationist candidate in the May presidential election. 

Aside from Antonescu and Dan, other relevant candidates are Union Save Romania (USR) president Elena Lasconi and former prime minister Victor Ponta. 

As he fights for a place in the second round, Antonescu hopes to capitalise on Romanians’ concerns with the rise of the far-right parties and defeat Simion.

The ruling coalition formed by the PSD and PNL managed to survive the December 2024 parliamentary elections and form a fragile majority with the help of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). However, when it comes to the presidential ballot, the ruling coalition’s position is much more fragile. 

Dan is Antonescu’s main rival to take part in the second round of the presidential election (against Simion), while Ponta is cannibalising Antonescu’s electorate given the influence he still holds over the local organisations of the PSD, as the party’s former leader. 

Meanwhile, far-right parties now hold a robust position of around 30% in Romania’s parliament, while the democratic opposition mainly represented by the USR is weakened by internal disagreements. 

Potential turmoil ahead 

With Simion (or his political clone Ponta) as president, the political turmoil would significantly boost given the far right’s position in parliament. While the ruling coalition should in principle be able to remain in office, the functioning of the public authorities would be significantly hindered.

Moreover, should Simion manage to win the presidency, Romania’s geopolitical orientation would be at risk — an unexpected outcome for a country with a pronounced pro-Western position. 

At the same time, Romania is in a complicated economic situation, aggravated by the high fiscal deficit that has to be addressed by a new package of fiscal corrective measures after the presidential elections. 

Political turmoil generated by a president from outside the ruling coalition may complicate the fiscal consolidation, while even a win for Antonescu is not a guarantee for deep reforms needed to ensure macroeconomic stability. 

On the other hand, with Dan as president, there is a chance of a negotiated broadening of the ruling coalition to include USR. Dan has already negotiated such arrangements with the ruling coalition’s representatives at Bucharest City Hall and demonstrated certain skills in this regard.

Last minute scandal 

A major scandal emerged in Romania shortly before the May 4 presidential election, ignited by kompromat that surfaced in the media. 

On May 1, Lasconi published pictures allegedly demonstrating compromising meetings held in December 2024 by her rivals Dan and Ponta with a controversial former intelligence official — former deputy head of the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) Florian Coldea, who is currently being probed in a corruption scandal.

Lasconi said she had received the pictures several days before she published them, from an individual claiming to be a paparazzo and one of her supporters.

The scandal is seen as largely benefitting Antonescu, given that it tarnishes the reputations of two of his main rivals for the presidency. 

Both Dan, who held a press conference to address the accusations, and Ponta have denied that such a meeting took place and announced they will press charges against Lasconi.