Russia is attempting to provoke conflicts in the Western Balkans to use them as leverage against the West and get concessions over Ukraine, using psychological and information tools, an analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) says.

“Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s involvement in Eastern Europe has garnered greater attention. Unlike the brutal territorial conquest and destruction seen in Ukraine, Russia’s methods in southeastern Europe are more subtle, using information and psychological warfare techniques rather than traditional military power,” the analysis said.

Moscow has created a strong alliance with Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic, with the aim of destabilising the region. Similarly, in Bosnia & Herzegovina, the separatist Serb leader Milorad Dodik has been actively used for the same purpose, the FPRI analysis said.

“Russia has several goals for interfering in the western Balkans. First, if Russia can stir up chaos at Europe’s southeastern edge, it can presumably help reverse or unwind any such conflict. This provides Russia with leverage over the West: If Russia’s cooperation is essential to conflict mediation in the Balkans, Putin can demand concessions from Nato, perhaps over Ukraine, in exchange for calming tensions in the Balkans,” the report said.

Meanwhile, a possible conflict in the Balkans would increase the tensions within Nato, which is already divided on the possible responses to the Russian war in Ukraine.

“Another conflict, even closer to the heart of Europe, would make cooperation across Nato even more challenging, especially if it involved Kosovo, given that several Nato states do not recognise Kosovo’s independence,” the report reads.

On the other hand, Russia is using Western Balkans to justify its appetites towards Ukrainian territory. According to the FPRI, Moscow claims that if Nato was right to protect Kosovo from Serbia, then Moscow should protect Russians in Crimea and the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.

“This diplomatic “whataboutism” may be absurd, given that Russia has never recognized Kosovo’s independence, but that is beside the point. This narrative helps the Kremlin muddy the waters about its illegal invasion of Ukraine,” FPRI noted.

“Instability in the Western Balkans presents Russia with a win-win scenario. If the status quo drags on, Nato and the European Union are unable to stop the chaos and instability there and appear powerless and unprincipled. If they are forced to bring Russia to the table, Putin will leverage the region for concessions elsewhere,” it added.

If a war breaks in the Balkans and Nato intervenes, that would distract the alliance from Ukraine and boost Russian military positions there.

In the Western Balkans, Russia uses the information space to manipulate people. In Serbia, Russian state news outlets Sputnik and RT are allowed to operate, and local media have been picking up information from them.

“These include the outright lie that Ukraine attacked Russia in 2022, as well as conspiracy theories about US-run “biolabs” in Serbia. Russia also operates via social media platforms, especially Telegram,” the analysis said.

Moscow’s efforts are already bearing fruit in the Western Balkans. Serbia has moved troops to the borders of Kosovo several times, raising fears of a possible war.

In Bosnia, Dodik has made more decisive moves to secede from the country, which comprises two autonomous entities – the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska.

“Russian political warfare efforts in the Balkans are not limited to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Serbia. Montenegro represent Nato’s soft, vulnerable underbelly as Moscow seeks to project influence into the Adriatic Sea,” the analysis added.

The FPRI urged the West to take more decisive measures to combat Russian methods in the Balkans, including stricter sanctions and fighting the disinformation spread by the Kremlin.