With the attention of economists and financial analysts absorbed by the banking crisis, other clouds on the horizon are being neglected. I see sovereign default in emerging markets as one of those risks. There are quite a few countries on the critical list; this article deals with Pakistan, a country of 235mn people, the fifth most populous in the world.
This article discusses the probability of default and implosion in Pakistan and possible impact.
Pakistani bond yields are at distressed levels. Hard currency reserves are dwindling rapidly (at about three weeks of imports). GDP has been stagnant over the past five years. The country needs to pay down $22bn of debt in the coming year, and $80bn over the coming three years. The rupee has devalued by 60% over the past year, while inflation has recently been recorded in the range of 23-46%, depending on whose measures are used. Rating agencies are consistently downgrading Pakistan (Fitch just downgraded to CCC – “Default is a real possibility”). Droughts and heat waves are becoming more frequent. Record rains recently caused flooding over a third of the country, pushing another 8-9mn people below the poverty line. Food shortages and price surges have resulted in mobs looting restaurants and trucks carrying foodstuffs.
The political situation is explosive, with a populist outsider, Imran Khan, likely to win elections this summer, pitted against the establishment and military, whose support he would need in order to govern. His last stint as prime minister was characterised by bouts of anti-Americanism and a breakdown of relations with the military. He has loudly voiced concerns that the upcoming elections are rigged against him, and that he may not accept the results. He blames the current prime minister for an attempt on his life, and is still nursing a leg wound.
Pakistan has some $126bn of external debt. Should a default occur, the probability of an IMF rescue plan coming together – a la Sri Lanka – is less than assured, for several reasons:
The likelihood of implosion is augmented by Pakistan being among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change while lacking the capital on institutions to deal with it. Further climate shocks might accelerate the downward spiral.
Should there be default, without an IMF rescue package, an economic death spiral could result in a failed state. Even with a rescue package, the downward spiral may be too strong to overcome.
Default would create a recession. A rise in energy prices and taxes, a likely condition of an IMF package, would add to the severity of the recession. Devaluation would lead to higher inflation. A tightening of monetary policy to defend the rupee could result in a wave of bankruptcies. The man in the street is likely to suffer even more than now.
Default could have a ripple effect on Pakistan’s creditors – most notably China. A default could create a perception of higher risk in lending to emerging markets – contributing to rising interest rates and difficulty in financing government bonds across all emerging markets.
Perhaps the most terrifying prospect is that in the case of civil disobedience or civil war, the fate of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities could be up for grabs. Pakistan may have the dubious privilege of being the least stable of all countries possessing nuclear weapons.
Let me finish on a positive note. As the saying goes, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. There are a few optimists in Pakistan. Goldman Sachs, for example, forecast as recently as December 2022 that Pakistan would not default, and that by 2075, it would be the sixth largest economy in the world, provided “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place – in my opinion, a strong assumption in the case of Pakistan.
Les Nemethy is the CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors Ltd and a former official at the World Bank.