NBU increases its GDP in 2023 outlook to 4.9%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) upgraded its economic outlook for the country’s growth for the third time this year on October 26, increasing its growth forecast to 4.9% for the year 2023 as well as predicting inflation will fall to 5.8%, Interfax Ukraine reports. (chart)
The GDP growth projection for next year has also been improved from 3.5% to 3.6%. However, higher inflation is expected in 2024 of 9.5% as opposed to the previous estimate of 8.5%.
In late July the NBU also raised its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2023 from 2% to 2.9%, compared to the initial projection of 0.3% made in January. Simultaneously, the forecast for GDP growth in 2024 was lowered from 4.3% to 3.5%.
At the same time the NBU said inflation this year will come in at 10.6%, significantly less than the previous expectation of 14.8%.
Russia’s strong growth, driven by heavy military spending, has created growing inflationary pressure as the economy starts to overheat, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) says in its weekly update.
In the most recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), President Vladimir Putin's trust rating remained steady at 78.5%.
Ukraine’s leading investment bank Dragon Capital has cut its GDP forecast for Ukraine in 2024 in half to 4% y/y in anticipation of another year of war, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on December 7.
Czech industrial production increased by 1.9% year on year and by 2.8% month on month in October. The October increase follows a 5% slump registered in September, which alarmed local analysts.
Since 2018, economy has carried risk of severe balance of payments crisis. For the removal of that risk, the central bank’s net in and off-balance sheet FX position should at least turn positive.
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