The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting 2023 GDP growth for Central Asia's three oil importers, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, of 5.5%, 3.4% and 6.5%, respectively.

Uzbekistan, which last year recorded growth of 5.7%, would also likely see a 5.5% GDP expansion in 2024, the Fund added in its newly published World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023 edition.

Kyrgyzstan (last year 6.3%) was expected to record economic growth of 4.3% in 2024, and Tajikistan (last year 8.0%) 5.0% in 2024.

The IMF, which cautioned that the global economic recovery remains slow, with growing regional divergences and little margin for policy error, also gave revised consumer price, current account balance and unemployment projection (see fifth row of the table below for Uzbekistan, the 11^th row for Tajikistan and the 12^th row for Kyrgyzstan).

In an executive summary of the latest WEO, the IMF said: “The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains slow and uneven. Despite economic resilience earlier this year, with a reopening rebound and progress in reducing inflation from last year’s peaks, it is too soon to take comfort.

“Economic activity still falls short of its prepandemic path, especially in emerging market and developing economies, and there are widening divergences among regions. Several forces are holding back the recovery. Some reflect the long-term consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. Others are more cyclical in nature, including the effects of monetary policy tightening necessary to reduce inflation, withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt, and extreme weather events.”

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