Hungary's veteran leader has probably made the biggest foreign policy blunder in his career by endorsing Romania's far-right presidential candidate George Simion. The outcome has been a defeat for Viktor Orban as ethnic Hungarians overwhelmingly supported the pro-European candidate, independent media wrote on May 19, citing a political analyst and a former leader of UMDR (RMDSZ), the ethnic Hungarian party in Romania.

Hungarian President Tamas Sulyok extended brief but formal congratulations to Nicusor Dan following his victory with a short X message. Orban tweeted just after at 3 pm, saying he looks forward to working together on strengthening cooperation between the two countries, to the "benefit of our peoples."

In the second round of the presidential elections, the former Bucharest mayor garnered about 54% of ballots, while radical right-wing, pro-Trump and Eurosceptic candidate George Simion received 46%. In ethnic Hungarian regions, Dan received 85-90% of the vote.

Analysts are still puzzled over the motives behind Viktor Orban's speech on May 9th at a major religious site. Speaking at the reopening of the Benedictine Abbey in Tihany, a picturesque town on the shore of Lake Balaton, the Hungarian leader quoted Simion's statements on a "Europe of nations" and a "Christian Europe," expressing complete agreement and emphasising a "historical community of fate" between Hungarians and Romanians.

"We assure Romania's people and its next president that we stand on the ground of cooperation and will not support any attempt for isolation or political revenge against Romania or its leaders," Orban said just nine days before the vote, seen as a clear endorsement, given the context of the speech.

A day later, he appeared to back away from his comment after a telephone call with RMDSZ president Hunor Kelemen, saying that the Hungarian government considers "RMDSZ's position decisive". 

Orban's comments sparked significant backlash among ethnic Hungarians, staunch supporters of Fidesz. Even as Kelemen refrained from openly criticising the prime minister, he urged the Hungarian community to support the centrist candidate in the runoff, and in Facebook posts he continued to bash the far-right candidate for his xenophobic remarks in the past.

"George Simion is not a sovereignist. He is an illusionist. He is not a Christian, he is a charlatan. In every nerve, in every part of his body, George Simion is a defender of the principle that there is no place for Hungarians in Romania," he wrote, while sharing a six-year-old video footage.

Simion rose to the political arena by leading a group of nationalists and football ultras in the desecration of a Hungarian military cemetery in June 2019. The incident drew global media attention and led to the cooling of bilateral relations. Local courts later ruled that the Romanian memorial structures on the site had been illegally installed.

In the campaign, Simion tried to appeal to Hungarian voters, exploiting the endorsement by the Hungarian leader.  "Thank you, @Viktor Orban. Romania and Hungary together against the globalists who now rule," he shared in a video clip.

Simion appeared alongside Viktor Orban on a flyer, accompanied by Hungarian-language text by Orban: "The Romanians can count on the Hungarians in their fight for Christianity and sovereignty."

Election leaflets targeting ethnic Hungarian voters featured him and the Hungarian leader.

Simion has previously said he drew inspiration from Orban's fight to preserve national identity and Christianity in the face of EU pressure. In an interview with Euronews days before the second round, he said he hoped to "follow many of Viktor Orban's steps."

Former RMDSZ leader Bela Marko, in an interview with Hungarian media on May 19, said that the election outcome was "a defeat for Orban" as he mobilised ethnic Hungarian voters in favour of the liberal candidate and against Simion. The backlash, he added, reveals a broader fatigue with Orban's brand of nationalism, which he says no longer serves the interests of minority Hungarians.

Orban's tacit endorsement defies political logic, according to Gabor Torok, a prominent Hungarian political analyst. The prime minister may have prioritised broader EU-level realpolitik even as it came at the cost of alienating his national base.

Orban had probably seen a potential veto partner in Simion in the EU, along with the Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Simion's victory could have amplified Budapest's leverage on issues such as migration, sanctions against Russia or LGBTQ+ rights, he added.

The Hungarian leader may have underestimated the political implications.

"It's almost incomprehensible how such an error could be made," Torok wrote, suggesting either strategic blindness or a lack of dissenting voices in Orban's inner circle.

Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar, in a direct response to the speech in Tihany, embarked on a symbolic walk from Hungary to Oradea a week ago to express solidarity with the Hungarian minority in Romania.

Torok called Magyar's "One million steps" campaign a savvy and symbolic move and potentially damaging for Fidesz, which is now facing the risk of alienating its core supporters.

Since 2010, around 750,000 ethnic Hungarians in Romania have received Hungarian citizenship. In 2022, Fidesz secured 95% of the votes, thanks in large part to the party’s consistent support for Hungarian communities beyond the border.

Other opposition leaders also welcomed the election results. Leftist-liberal party chief of DK, Klara Dobrev contrasted Dan's unifying message with Simion's "politics of division and hatred" and called the outcome "a source of hope for Hungarians." Liberal Momentum's parliamentary group leader David Bedo hailed the vote as a lesson in civic engagement, writing: "If a nation unites, it can stop the far-right."

Mayor Peter Marki-Zay, the joint prime minister candidate of the opposition in the 2022 elections, recalled that Hungarian voters were instrumental in defeating Simion, Orban's de facto ally. "It is sad that in this struggle, too, Viktor Orban fought against the Hungarians," he added.