Czech PMI rises above 50 for the first time in over three years
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Turkey’s calendar-adjusted industrial production index gained 7.6% y/y in March, slowing for the third consecutive month, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on May 16.
Industrial production in Turkey has now stayed in annual growth territory for an uninterrupted 18 months from October 2016 to March 2018. It peaked with a 14.7% gain seen last July due to the base effect caused by the failed coup attempt in July 2016.
Average annual industrial production growth quickened to 8.9% in 2017 from 3.4% in 2016, according to TUIK’s revised series of data. The previous data set pointed to average annual growth of 6.3% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2016.
Turkey’s manufacturing boom has been substantially founded on the government's TRY250bn (€56.8bn) credit guarantee fund (CGF) for backstopping bank loans to businesses. Following the attempted coup of July 2016 and the brake it put on economic growth, Turkey spurred the economy by upping spending across the board, hiking wages, pouring capital into investments and guaranteeing loans with the CGF.
The Turkish government recently announced a fresh stimulation package for 2018 in the build-up for the June 24 snap elections. As part of the expected package, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the government announced last week a total of around TRY135bn worth of investment incentives for 19 industrial producers’ 23 long-term investment projects.
Fears that Turkey’s economy is overheating intensified on March 29 as 4Q GDP growth for last year came in at 7.3% y/y with the full-year 2017 expansion given as 7.4% after 3Q GDP was revised up 0.2pp to 11.3%.
The government is targeting annual GDP growth of 5% from 2017 to 2020.
Turkey’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moved down from 51.8 in March to 48.9 in April, coming in at below the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the first time since February 2017, IHS Markit said on May 2. The figure is the lowest recorded since January last year.
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