South Africa expects a sharp decrease in natural gas supplies to industries in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces as imported gas from Pande and Temane fields in Mozambique runs low.

What: Ramakgopa said the anticipated gas cliff was a threat to South Africa’s economy.

Why: South Africa is currently dependent on a single gas supplier, with limited infrastructure and a small domestic market.

What next: Looking ahead, the minister stressed the importance of a fundamental recalibration of the country’s energy system, institutions, and investment framework.

South Africa’s Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has once again commented on the ongoing discussions of how to avoid the country’s impending “gas cliff.” At the Natural Gas Symposium in Johannesburg on May 7, the minister said that South Africa’s failure to take urgent action to address the looming gas shortage would result in economic regression, Engineering News reported.

South Africa expects a sharp decrease in natural gas supplies to industries in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces as imported gas from Pande and Temane fields in Mozambique runs low.

“The gas cliff is not a distant event. It is imminent. But it is not inevitable. We have the analytical tools, institutional memory and public-private platforms to act. What we now require is resolve, coordination and energy,” he told participants at the event hosted by Wits Business School in partnership with the Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA).

Ramokgopa called for gas to take a central role in driving industrial revitalisation and strengthening energy resilience, emphasising the need for a gas development model that was sovereign, inclusive, and environmentally responsible.

He noted that South Africa was at a pivotal turning point, emerging from a decade marked by energy insecurity that hindered economic growth and eroded public trust. Looking ahead, the minister stressed the importance of a fundamental recalibration of the country’s energy system, institutions, and investment framework.

“The gas economy, still in its formative stages, holds promise, but also presents constraints and demands urgent decisions. Natural gas is often described as a transition fuel,” Ramokgopa said.

“But for us, it is not merely a bridge. It is a pillar in a diversified and pragmatic approach to energy planning, particularly in the context of industrialisation, job creation and spatial economic transformation.”

Energy security

The minister explained that the role of natural gas in global politics had changed significantly over the past two years. After the Russia-Ukraine war began, gas markets became unstable as European countries rushed to find new suppliers, moving away from Russian gas and turning to global LNG sources. This led to price increases, changes in supply routes, and new international partnerships.

He said the situation showed clearly that energy security was a part of national security, and that countries could not rely only on markets or foreign suppliers to meet their energy needs.

“The weaponisation of gas through price manipulation, supply disruptions and political leverage is not a theoretical risk. It is a lived reality in today’s multipolar world,” Ramakgopa was quoted as saying.

According to the minister, relying on a single gas supplier poses serious economic risks for developing countries like South Africa. He noted that over 85% of South Africa’s gas came from Mozambique. South African integrated energy and chemical company Sasol uses most of it to contribute around 5% to GDP and support over 30,000 jobs.

However, supply from its neighbours' Pande and Temane fields is expected to decline between 2026 and 2028, posing a major threat. Ramokgopa warned that South Africa must respond strategically, as gas was not just a commodity but a driver of industrial growth and geopolitical influence.

“For South Africa, this presents both risk and opportunity. On the one hand, we are currently exposed, dependent on a single supplier, with limited infrastructure and a small domestic market. On the other [hand], we are strategically located, relatively stable and endowed with underexplored petroleum potential,” the minister said.

He also highlighted the need to move beyond legacy, vertically integrated models.

“Our political economy must respond by crafting a developmental gas strategy – one that integrates domestic production, regional diplomacy, infrastructure, finance, and market design. It must be grounded in public value, not just private returns,” he stated.

Legacy reconfigured

Ramakgopa said South Africa’s gas sector was undergoing important reforms, with efforts to open pipeline access to independent traders and create a more competitive market. Transnet Pipelines, a division of South Africa's state-owned freight transport and logistics company Transnet, is being repositioned to support this open-access model.

Furthermore, the minister highlighted the potential for a national gas aggregator to secure long-term supply contracts and distribute gas to smaller players, increasing market liquidity and lowering barriers to entry. Gas-to-power (GTP) is seen as the most immediate opportunity to stimulate long-term demand and attract investment in LNG infrastructure. However, current demand outside Sasol is too low to justify an LNG import terminal, so the government must help aggregate demand and ensure regulatory support.

According to Ramokgopa, strategic sites like Richards Bay, Coega and the Vaal Triangle are ideal for gas infrastructure. He also underscored natural gas role in industrial development and the Just Energy Transition (JET), especially in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga.

Coherent policy

The minister pointed out that South Africa needed a coherent industrial policy linked to large-scale gas infrastructure development, targeting areas like special economic zones, agro-processing hubs, and mineral beneficiation clusters.

He stressed the importance of strengthening regional energy cooperation through shared infrastructure in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), including pipeline extensions from Mozambique, integration with Namibia’s gas discoveries, and developing regional LNG storage hubs.

South Africa’s 2025 G20 chairmanship, he added, was an opportunity to promote fair access to energy finance and transitional fuels for Africa. Since gas projects are costly and risky, public support is needed to attract private investment through blended finance and risk-reducing tools like take-or-pay contracts and volume guarantees.

Ramokgopa proposed a dedicated gas procurement programme similar to the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP). While importing LNG was a short- to medium-term solution, South Africa’s long-term goal was to develop its own gas reserves, including onshore fields and major offshore discoveries like Brulpadda and Luiperd, the minister stated.

It is estimated that the Brulpadda field contains about 1.3 trillion cubic feet, or approximately 36.8bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, while the Luiperd field is estimated at about 1.2 trillion cubic feet (34bcm).

“But we must not ignore exploration timelines. Environmental approvals and production ramp-up periods are long. The time between discovery and first gas can easily exceed eight to ten years,” Ramokgopa pointed out.

The minister also emphasised the need for clear upstream regulations and investment in technology, skills, and research.

“Looking ahead, gas will evolve. Emerging technologies, such as blue hydrogen, synthetic methane, and carbon capture and storage, will shape the future value chain,” he said.