Russia has threatened to target any vessel travelling to Ukrainian ports, leading the US to claim that Moscow may be plotting to strike civilian ships and blame Kyiv.

As of July 20, Moscow will consider any ship crossing the Black Sea towards Ukraine "as potential carriers of military cargo”, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated following Russia’s departure from the grain initiative that allowed export of Ukrainian grain via Black Sea ports. The ministry declared several areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the Black Sea as dangerous, reiterating that safety guarantees have been withdrawn.

In response, Washington claims Russia is considering an attack to frame Ukraine, citing declassified intelligence. US National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said on July 19. alleges that Russia has mined several areas close to Ukrainian ports and referenced a video shared by Moscow in which Russian troops deactivate an alleged Ukrainian seamine. 

"We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks," he said.

At the same time, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is at risk of Ukraine’s missiles and marine drones as it increases its role in blocking Ukraine’s seaports, the UK Ministry of Defence reported.

“Russia likely made the decision to leave some time ago because it decided that the deal was no longer serving its interests,” the ministry wrote on Twitter.

“Russia has masked this with disinformation, claiming its withdrawal is instead due to concerns that civilian ships are at risk from Ukrainian mines and that Ukraine was making military use of the grain corridor without providing evidence for these claims.”

Moscow pulled out of the grain agreement on July 17 despite warnings the decision will jeopardise global food security. Russian President Vladimir Putin called for certain conditions to resume the agreement, including the freeing of Russian grain and fertilisers from sanctions, the reconnection of Russian banks to SWIFT and the resumption of imports of spare parts for agricultural machinery.

He also demanded the resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline, which he accused Kyiv of damaging last month. The pipeline carries ammonia from a petrochemical plant from the southern Russian city of Togliatti to Odesa in Ukraine that is destined for European markets. Ammonia is a key ingredient for making fertilisers, amongst other things.

While Russia's food and fertiliser exports are not under sanctions, the restrictions imposed by the West on payments, logistics and insurance have created barriers to shipments.

Kyiv is eager to continue the grain corridor without Russia’s participation and has requested assistance from the international community to open up new routes and to put pressure on Russia to prevent possible attacks.

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar proposed an alternative route for the grain corridor through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and Romania on July 19. There is also the possibility to use land routes via road and rail, although this is slower, more expensive and can not fully compensate for the losses of Ukraine’s ports.

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