Russia’s contract military recruitment slowed in May and June after a spring surge, but the cost of signing up new soldiers continued to climb,  Janis Kluge, fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank, said in a blogpost. 

“The recruitment has slowed down from the ~40,000 per month seen in March and April to slightly below 30,000 in May and June,” Kluge wrote, adding that total recruitment for the first half of 2025 amounted to roughly 210,000 contract soldiers, a figure cited by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The number represents a 10% increase over the 190,000 Medvedev claimed for the same period in 2024.

Kluge noted that Medvedev’s claims tend to slightly exceed estimates based on public spending data, with regional budgets suggesting around 191,000 contracts were signed in the first half of this year. “Recruitment was particularly strong in the spring this year, surpassing 40,000 men per month in March alone,” he wrote.

The Russian recruitment drive stands in stark contrast to Ukraine’s efforts to replenish the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) forces. Although Russia is suffering much heavier losses – currently reported to be some 1,000 men a day either KIA or WIA – it’s is more or less covering its losses with fresh recruits; Ukraine is not.

In April 2024, Kyiv passed a major law lowering the mobilisation age from 27 to 25, hoping to broaden the draft pool. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry has not publicly disclosed detailed recruitment numbers in 2025, but open-source estimates suggest only a few tens of thousands of new soldiers have been mobilised over the first six months of this year - an order of magnitude less than Russia. Unlike Russia, Ukraine is relying more on mandatory conscription and legal reforms, not large financial incentives. President Zelensky said in late 2023 that Ukraine aimed to mobilise up to 500,000 troops, but implementation has been gradual and politically sensitive and analysts say the target is unlikely to be reached.

The increase in Russian sign-on bonuses has played a central role in attracting recruits. “In some regions, these payments now amount to several million rubles and were negligible a year ago,” Kluge said. Regions such as Tula, Novosibirsk, and Moscow Oblast have recently raised bonus levels again after they plateaued in the spring.

The federal government is responsible for only a minority of these costs. “If around 200,000 men signed a contract in the first half of 2025, the cost for federal sign-on bonuses would be RUB80bn ($1bn),” Kluge calculated. By contrast, regional authorities spent an estimated RUB230bn ($2.9bn) on bonuses in the same period. When including municipal and company-level contributions, total expenditure likely exceeded $4bn in the first half of the year.

Kluge projected that, with continued recruitment pressures later in the year, total spending on bonuses will likely surpass $10bn in 2025.

In many parts of Russia, sign-on bonuses made up between 2–3% of regional budget expenditures. However, some regions diverted significantly more. “Mari El, a small, impoverished ethnic republic in the Volga Federal District, is probably the most shocking case,” Kluge noted. The region offered RUB2.6mn ($32,500) per recruit—placing it among the top payers nationwide. Having recruited around 1,300 men, bonuses in Mari El accounted for over 10% of its total regional budget, exceeding its healthcare spending.