Russia’s military recruitment drive, which had been adding more than 1,000 new soldiers per day in early 2025 – nearly enough to cover losses on the front line in Donbas – saw a notable decline in May, with regional data suggesting a slowdown to around 900 recruits per day in recent weeks.

Janis Kluge, senior associate for Russia and Eurasia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said in a social media post that Russian regional budget figures largely corroborate a claim made by former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on May 28 that Russia had enlisted 175,000 men since the start of the year.

“When I checked the number of recruits from my model using regional budget data for January 1 through May 27, I got a result of 175,440,” Kluge wrote in a commentary published on June 4. “Of course, this precision is mostly a coincidence… Nevertheless, Medvedev’s recruitment figure appears credible.”

Kluge’s model is based on regional spending on sign-on bonuses, drawn from data across 37 Russian regions. He noted that while recruitment briefly reached 1,400 men per day in April, the pace has since declined. “There was also a decline in May of last year, but… it is unclear if this is a seasonal pattern,” he said, adding that the slowdown may reflect a reduction in pressure on municipalities and businesses following successful early-year mobilisation.

The data also suggests that financial incentives may be levelling off. “The average size of sign-on bonuses… increased dramatically in 2024, but has plateaued at RUB1.1mn in recent months,” Kluge noted. “Apparently, further increases were unnecessary, as recruitment was quite successful.”

However, he warned that if the decline continues into the summer, regional authorities may again be forced to raise bonus levels. “In a sense, the size of Russia’s average sign-on bonus is the best indicator of how well Russian recruitment is going,” he said.

Kluge reiterated that Russian regions appear to have Defence Ministry-set recruitment quotas proportional to their populations. “It’s no secret that each region received a quota that is proportional to its population,” he said, citing local outlet 47news.ru.

Using this “rule of thumb,” Kluge estimates regions should recruit about one man per day for every 100,000 residents – around 1,400 men nationally per day. That figure slightly exceeds the Kremlin’s often-cited annual target of 400,000, or about 1,100 per day.

“Sverdlovsk Oblast had to recruit around 10,000 men from April to December 2023,” he added, noting that the region subsequently raised its bonus several times after underperforming its target. It now offers one of the highest incentives in Russia, at RUB2.5mn – enough to buy a car.

“Based on the actual pace of recruitment in different regions, my ‘rule of thumb’ suggests that this estimate is close but perhaps a bit ambitious,” Kluge said.