This report profiles Thailand’s banking industry, discussing market trends through the first half of 2016 and outlook for 2016 and beyond. The report also highlights leading players in the sector including Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), Bangkok Bank (BBL), Kasikorn Bank (KBANK), Krung Thai Bank (KTB), and Bank of Ayudhya (BAY).

Thailand’s banking system’s performance remained resilient in the first half of 2016 with high levels of loan loss provision and capital fund to facilitate credit expansion and economic recovery going forward. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects the economy’s 2016 GDP growth at 3.2%, a slight recovery from 2.8% last year thanks to government infrastructure investment and stimulus measures.

Total assets held by financial institutions in Thailand stood at THB23.54tn as of July 2016, up 3.5% y/y. Commercial banks represented 74.6% of the banking industry, with Bangkok Bank remaining the key dominant player in terms of total assets. Meanwhile, banking loans growth grew by 4.9% in Jun-2016, compared to 3.7% in Dec-2015. The growth mostly stemmed from financial business, services and construction, while consumer loans growth continued to decline in line with slow economic recovery. Loan quality continued to deteriorate as non-performing loans (NPL) increased, resulting in NPL ratio of 2.72% in Jun-2016, up from 2.38% in the same period last year. Nonetheless, banks generally have had ample buffer capital for expected losses as capital ratios remained strong in the first half of 2016, signifying a solid financial position for banks in Thailand.

The outlook for Thailand’s banking system remains stable and growth forecast steady for the next 12-18 month period, reflecting banks’ strong loss-absorption buffers, according to market analysts. However, weak economic growth and asset quality deterioration will remain in the system’s key operating challenge. Commercial banking business is expected to continue to fare well with the distinctiveness of stability, strong capital funds and a boost with the Thai government’s stimulus package.

Key Points:

• The Thai banking system recorded lower net profit of THB50.9bn and steady ROA of 1.2% in H1/2016 while capital position still remained high.

• Loan quality deteriorated, evidenced by an increase in NPL ratio to 2.72% in June 2016, from 2.38% a year ago.

• In 2016, banks should further see pressure on their loan incomes from lending rate cuts; nevertheless, their increasing success in developing non-loan income will help sustain their profits to meet credit costs.