Russian forces have reportedly taken full control of the region of Luhansk. If confirmed it would be the first time that Russia fully controls one of the four regions that it annexed in 2023, reported Reuters, citing Russian media.

Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) have also reportedly taken a village in Ukraine’s east-central Dnipropetrovsk region, marking the first advance in that region since the war began.

The Kremlin appointed governor of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, told Russian TV that the AFR now control “100 %” of the region, calling it fully “liberated.”

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has not confirmed the claim nor has it been confirmed by the Russian Defence Ministry. Intelligence reports say Russia controlled approximately 98–99 % of Luhansk Oblast by late 2024, but small pockets—less than 1 %—remained under Ukrainian control.

If the entire region is now under Russia’s control that would be a significant blow to Ukraine. One of Putin’s stated war goals is to bring all four of the occupied regions under Russia’s direct control.

Moreover, one of the Kremlin’s key demands during the stalled ceasefire talks has been that Kyiv and the international community recognise Russia’s sovereignty over the regions, including the parts that the AFR don’t control. Giving up Ukraine’s sovereignty over any occupied land has been a red line for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has refused to even discuss the idea until Putin agrees to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

As of June, Russia claims full control over Luhansk and holds significant portions of the other three occupied Ukrainian regions. It controls approximately 60–70% of Donetsk, about 70% of Zaporizhzhia, and up to 95% of Kherson. Moscow asserts administrative authority over all four regions, but Ukrainian forces continue to contest many of these areas. Independent assessments often show lower levels of Russian occupation than the Kremlin claims.

First village falls in Dnipropetrovsk

According to Russia’s RIA news agency, Russian official Vladimir Rogov claimed that troops had captured the village of Dachne, located just inside the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukraine has yet to confirm the loss and has consistently denied that Russian forces have made significant advances in the area.

The claim follows two months of steady Russian gains in eastern Ukraine, with pro-Kremlin sources reporting that Russia has seized approximately 950 square kilometres of territory during that period. If confirmed, the move into Dnipropetrovsk would mark a new phase in Russia’s offensive beyond its previously declared territorial ambitions.

Meanwhile, in the southern Donetsk region, another area claimed by Moscow, Russian-installed authorities reported Ukrainian strikes on the regional capital, killing at least one person. The AFR has started its summer offensive that has been accompanied by a sustained devastating missile barrage that began in Kyiv at the end of May.

With reports that US President Donald Trump has officially ended weapons supplies to Ukraine – and in particular, the desperately needed Patriot air defence missiles – the mood is turning black.

“The increased intensity of Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities is…damaging Ukrainian morale. Without a clear vision of victory — or at least of an end to the war — a sense of hopelessness risks descending over the country,” wrote Gideon Rachman in an op-ed, the Financial Times’ famous leader writer.

Rachman added that behind closed doors European leaders are becoming more sceptical and suggest Ukraine could reach a “breaking point” within six months, if it does not receive significant fresh military supplies.

“The change in mood inside the Ukrainian government is reflected in the urgency with which it is now privately calling for a ceasefire. A year or two ago, such calls would have been regarded as defeatism. Now they are made with increasing insistence in closed-door meetings between Ukrainian and western leaders.

Despite ongoing discussions from both Kyiv and Moscow about potential pathways to peace, Russia continues to report incremental battlefield progress. The Russian Defence Ministry has been announcing the capture of new villages on a near-daily basis in recent weeks.

“The change in mood inside the Ukrainian government is reflected in the urgency with which it is now privately calling for a ceasefire. A year or two ago, such calls would have been regarded as defeatism. Now they are made with increasing insistence in closed-door meetings between Ukrainian and western leaders,” wrote Rachman.

Other regions in the firing line

Separately, Russian forces are reportedly pushing into Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, attempting to establish a foothold across roughly 200 square kilometres of territory near the border. There is also talk of an assault on Odesa that has also come under heavy bombardment recently.

The Kremlin has messed around 50,000 troops near the border with Sumy in eastern Ukraine, committing elite units including airborne and naval infantry, in an effort to open a new axis of advance into Ukraine.

During the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) Putin said that the occupation of Sumy is not currently on the agenda, “but might be if we think it is necessary.”

Although Russian troops have made initial gains—seizing several northern villages such as Basivka, Novenivka, Kindrativka, and Kostiantynivka—they have not achieved any significant breakthrough  in the face of fierce resistance by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Ukraine’s commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week that the AFU has successfully halted further advances, stabilised the frontline, and pushed back incursions in key settlements north of Sumy City, Reuters reports. But in a sign to things to come as air defences fail, Sumy city endured a devastating missile strike on April 13, killing at least 32 civilians, including children, and injuring over 99, marking the deadliest attack on civilians in Ukraine since 2023 

Former foreign minister Carl Bildt of Sweden and Sanna Marin of Finland visited Ukraine recently and picked up on the deteriorating mood. They wrote afterwards that “while Ukrainians will never stop resisting, without more military support, Ukraine can lose more territory. More cities might be captured.”

The Ukrainian monitoring group Deep State reported that Russian forces now control approximately 113,588 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, reflecting a net gain of 943 square kilometres since late April, or about 20% in total.

“One well-placed official thinks that Russia’s central goal now is to capture Odesa — which Vladimir Putin regards as a historically Russian city. Without Odesa, Ukraine would lose access to its main port,” wrote Rachman.

Odesa was founded by Prince Potemkin, Catherine the Great’s lover, in the seventeenth century and is widely seen as Russian by Russians. Potemkim also first annexed the Crimea in Catherine’s name in the same campaign.