Russian stocks are expected to plunge on Monday June 26 when the Moscow bourse reopens for the first time after an armed insurrection by the Wagner PMC rocked the county over the weekend.

The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) issued a statement on Sunday saying the market would re-open on Monday despite some speculation it would remain closed due to emergency “anti-terrorist” security measures implemented by Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. Tensions were still high in the capital even after mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin called off a coup and agreed to move to neighbouring Belarus.

"On June 26, trading and settlement on all Moscow Exchange markets will be conducted as usual, including all trading periods and instruments," MOEX said in a statement. SPB Exchange, Russia's second-largest bourse, would also be operating as normal.

Russia macroeconomic analysts and traders said blue-chips stocks could drop by as much as 3-5% before a possible rebound.

“We will see a substantial correction, but it will be nothing compared to the meltdown when Russia launched the special military operation,” a Moscow-based fixed income trader told bne Intellinews.

Russian stocks crashed by a record 33% and the ruble hit a record low against the dollar after President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion on February 24, 2022.

Tinkoff Bank, one of Russia’s largest lenders, halted over-the-trading on Saturday amidst a sell-off in stocks in weekend trading. The main index fell by 2% in limited trading, while lender Sberbank slid by 2.05%, oil major Rosneft by 1.6%, gas monopoly Gazprom by 1.41%, and independent oil producer Lukoil by 2.08%.

Chris Weafer, founder of Macro-Advisory, which used to be headquartered in Moscow, told bne IntelliNews the market reaction may be muted on Monday, as there are no foreign participants since sanctions were introduced.

“Local investors have become used to uncertainty over the past year and are more likely to wait than make any knee-jerk moves,” said Weafer.

All of the country’s large banks also hiked their exchange rates for dollars and euros amid a surge in demand for hard currency. Prices for dollars and euros were being quoted near levels not seen since the war began in February 2022. RBC Daily said some banks were quoting dollar rates at a staggering range from RUB100 to RUB200, up from RUB83 pre-assault, although the Russian currency stabilised after Wagner boss Evgeniy Prigozhin called off the coup.

The Central Bank said that the Moscow stock exchange, banks and financial institutions were anticipated to operate as usual.

A Russian economist said he expected Governor Elvira Nabiullina, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, to make a statement to calm the markets. “She will be mindful of another run on the banks, of course,” said the manager, who declined to be named for security reasons.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma's committee on financial markets, said on Saturday that there was no logical grounds for an increase in the dollar or a decrease in the ruble. "It is rather an emotional factor," Aksakov told Ria Novosti. "After a while, as soon as everyone understands that everything is under control, the situation will develop in a controlled process and the foreign exchange market will also calm down."

Macro's Weafer predicted that crude prices may rise amid fear that there may be some disruption in supply although it may not be sustained. "There may be a rise in the oil price, as traders may fear some disruption. In May, Russian oil and oil product exports averaged 7.5mn barrels per day – greater than Saudi exports."

When Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, WTI closed the day at $92.81 per barrel. Seven trading days later, WTI had surged by 33% to $123.70, and that was before the tsunamis of sanctions kicked in.

On Sunday, Moscow witnessed a state of normality restored after Prigozhin called off Wagner’s assault on the capital, following a deal that defused an extraordinary threat to Putin’s rule.

Security forces were observed dismantling hastily erected barricades as Wagner troops had started closing in on the city via the M4 highway from Rostov. Repairs were also underway on several routes to Moscow, which had been dug up in an effort to impede Wagner’s advance.

Marina, an interior designer, took a drive around the city’s Garden Ring perimeter with her daughter on Sunday to see what was happening despite advice from the authorities not to take “unnecessary trips.”

“We haven’t seen any military vehicles today in Moscow and we drove the entire Garden Ring to see what was happening,” Marina told bne IntelliNews. “It was like Santa Barbara [a US soap opera] but now it has calmed down again.”

Airline prices from Moscow skyrocketed over the weekend despite the relative calm on the capital’s streets. The cost of the cheapest direct flight to Istanbul, the hub for all flights out of Russia since sanctions were introduced, jumped to RUB35,000 ($420) from about RUB8,000, according to Aviasales.ru. A direct flight to Armenia’s capital Yerevan was being quoted at anything from RUB36,000 to RUB151,000.

Flight data revealed that private jets owned by notable oligarchs – including steel magnate Vladimir Potanin and billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, departed from Moscow after the Wagner Group seized the southern city of Rostov, according to investigative outlet iStories.

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin cancelled all mass events in the Russian capital as part of "anti-terrorist operations to increase security measures." Speaking on his Telegram channel, Sobyanin said Monday would be a "non-working day" in a bid to keep locals from travelling around the city. The only exception to this order is for those working in core services, security and the military.

Galina and her teenage son Maxim had been looking forward to attending a free pop concert on Saturday in Gorky Park, made famous by the German band Scorpions and their ‘Wind of Change.’ “Unfortunately, our beloved Gorky Park is closed as some sort of security measure,” accountant Galina, 36, told bne IntelliNews. “Hopefully things will get back to some kind of normality again. We will live and then we will see.”