Infection rates for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic are slowing across most of Central and Southeast Europe as strict lockdowns appear to have brought the spread of the virus under control. 

Data from recent days demonstrates a flattening of the infection curve in countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, while elsewhere in the region stringent and early lockdowns have already prevented outbreaks from escalating in Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Slovenia and several other countries.

^{COVID-19 cases in Russia soar ahead of those in the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, which have the largest outbreaks in Central and Southeast Europe. Source: WHO}

It is a very different picture in Eastern Europe, as the number of new infections has been growing sharply in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, as well as in the Southeast European countries Moldova and Serbia, data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) shows. 

While these countries were among the later ones in the region to see the number of cases enter the hundreds, they later accelerated, with infections now outstripping those in countries that saw earlier outbreaks but moved quickly to contain them. 

^{The recent acceleration of infections in Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine, compared to a tapering off of new cases in several Central and Southeast European countries. Source: WHO}

Russia now has by far the largest number of cases in the Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe region, 27,938 as of April 16 — more than three times as many as in Poland. Footage from Moscow earlier this week appeared to show lines of ambulances queueing outside one hospital in the capital, as the virus spreads despite a lockdown introduced at the end of March. 

President Vladimir Putin unveiled additional economic support measures on April 15, extending aid and loans for the companies that are expected to cut staff and face cash flow disruptions due to the extended lockdown. However, the support is still seen as limited and cautious.  

Numbers have also accelerated recently in Moldova and Ukraine, a worrying trend as the two countries are the poorest in Europe, and have health services that are among the least equipped to deal with a flood of new cases. 

None of these countries are close to catching up with infection hotspots Iran and Turkey, though, which had recorded 76,389 and 69,393 cases respectively as of April 16. 

The economies of both countries are suffering. This week, the Turkish lira continued its slide to “red critical” weak levels on April 16 as worries that the country’s emerging economy is uniquely vulnerable to the coronavirus crisis because it was in such a fragile state before the advent of the pandemic continued to circulate among investors.

Meanwhile, some governments in Central and Southeast Europe are already looking ahead to the post-COVID world, with several tentatively lifting restrictions. 

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on April 16 that his government will begin easing the restrictions imposed on people and businesses to contain the spread of coronavirus starting next week. 

Starting on April 20, Poland will open its forests and parks and allow recreation such as cycling or running, although social distancing and wearing face masks will remain mandatory, Morawiecki announced. The maximum number of customers in shops will be increased to four per till or one per 15 square metres (sqm) in shops larger than 100 sqm. Minors aged 13-18 will also be allowed to leave home unaccompanied by grown-ups.

The government plans that, after the first stage of the easing kicks in, further lifting of the restrictions will take place in three more stages but did not offer their timing. The next phases will include opening hotels or public spaces like museums, opening of large retail, or the organisation of small sporting events – all under a tightened sanitary regime. Schools are currently expected to remain closed, with primary and high school exams on hold. Poland's school year finishes at the end of June.

“The decision to move to the next stage will be made after analysing the increase in the number of cases, the efficiency of the healthcare system, and implementation of the sanitary guidelines,” Morawiecki said. 

The Czech government has presented a five-step plan to gradually relax restrictions imposed to mitigate the coronavirus epidemic. According to Minister of Industry and Trade Karel Havlicek, the measures will be lifted in five waves in the coming weeks, starting on April 20 until June 8, if the outbreak is kept under control with no more than 400 patients infected per day. 

On April 15, the Lithuanian government approved the first stage of relaxing restrictions imposed across the country on people and companies. Small non-food stores, as well as small service points in shopping malls, will be allowed to reopen, the government announced. There will be a time limit of 20 minutes for the owners to service customers, however. Larger non-food retail, restaurants, cafes and gyms remain closed.

Slovakia too is preparing to announce a partial lifting of restrictions next week, even though the country, which has managed to keep the number of cases in the hundreds, recorded its largest daily increase of 114 on April 15. 

However, in recent days other governments have prolonged or even tightened restrictions in a sign they believe it will be weeks — or even months — before economies in the region can start to recover. 

Bulgaria’s health ministry ordered the closure of all fruit, vegetable and flower markets in a new set of restrictions related to the coronavirus on April 11. Bulgarians are also obliged to wear face masks when going out of their homes.

Controversially, the government decided to allow the Bulgarian Orthodox Church to hold Palm Sunday and Easter services despite the pandemic, even though Bulgarians are banned from going for a walk in parks or mountain areas. 

Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis signed a decree on April 14, extending the state of emergency due to COVID-19 for another month, up to May 15, though opposition parties say they will only back the extension if the government gives more support to the economy and outlines its strategy to resume economic activity after the lockdown.

North Macedonia has also extended its state of emergency for another 30 days, as interim Prime Minister Oliver Spasovski, Deputy PM Bujar Osmani, Health Minister Venko Filipce and several other officials were placed in self-isolation after holding a meeting with the mayor of Kumanovo, who subsequently tested positive for coronavirus.