Though officials billed his speech as set to unveil significant economic reforms, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent 65 minutes talking about nothing much on March 12.

At least that was the view from consulting firm Teneo, which put out a note on his address saying that “Erdogan failed today to make good on his long-standing pledge of economic reforms that would help Turkey to move to a new economic era”.

“Erdogan,” the note added, “talked mostly about preferable economic outcomes (digital economy, single digit inflation, increasing exports, etc.) but failed to mention any genuine economic reform.

“He also made no mention of the Central Bank and interest rates. However, he said that fighting inflation remains a priority and that the goal is to bring it down to single digits.”

In a wry comment in relation to market fears that former finance minister and Erdogan son-in-law Berat Albayrak—who quit last November after a failed strategy of burning up Turkey’s FX reserves to defend the Turkish lira left the country on the brink of another full-blown balance of payments crisis—could be on his way back into government in some capacity, Teneo said: “On the positive side, it is worth noting that Erdogan did not mention his son-in-law Berat Albayrak during his speech.”

The Turkish president, Teneo also observed, promised to increase transparency in public tenders, but gave no details on how this could be achieved, and to maintain fiscal discipline. “In this regard, Erdogan indicated that the government will target a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2021. The rest of the speech was noticeable for the frequent use of buzzwords like ‘fintech’, ‘digital’ and ‘bio-technology’,” the note added.

“Not much crazy stuff”

Timothy Ash at BlueBay Asset Management was a little more generous in his assessment of the speech, writing on Twitter: “Turkey—general take on new economic plan is some good stuff, but importantly not much crazy stuff. Solid package but economic policy credibility is so shot at this stage delivery will be key. Meanwhile, to hold the line rates need to be higher.”

He also tweeted: “Message is comprehensive political and economic reform is needed. But guess given that is unlikely any time soon, in the short term the CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey] has to offer high enough real rates to make it a no brainer to hold lira.”

Steve Hanke, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, in a dig at ‘Erdonomics’ (aka ‘Erdoganomics’)—a term that refers to unorthodox economic theories voiced by Erdogan such as the idea that high interest rates actually push up inflation, rather than having the opposite effect—tweeted: “@RTErdogan has announced a new economic plan for Turkey that ‘will bring inflation back down to single digits’. Great idea. But, this means interest rates will have to increase, and that RTE will have to dump Erdonomics.”

Hanke also referred on Twitter to how Turkey’s economic woes are one of a number of features of the Erdogan regime that are undercutting the country on the international stage, saying: “According to the @BrandFinance Soft Power Index, Turkey’s economic decline, the lira’s meltdown, and #Erdogan’s foreign adventures have cut the legs out from under Turkey’s soft power. Once lost, all-important soft power is harder to regain.”

Other points Erdogan made in his speech included:

• The government will move to abolish some extra-budgetary funds, with the funds to be transferred to the main budget to improve transparency;

• Increased usage of lira-denominated bonds is ahead;

• Around 850,000 small tradesmen are to be exempt from income tax (it was unclear if this will only apply to 2021);

• The scope of the state's Credit Guarantee Fund will be widened again;

• A price stability board will be brought in to deal with rising prices and a special “early warning system” will be used to help slow food prices;

• Legislation will be introduced to securitize non-performing loans (NPLs) and take them off banks’ balance sheets.

Erdogan also said his government would increase Turkey’s potential growth through productivity, driven by investment, employment and exports. “We will ... aim for a national and domestic economy where imports are lowered, and with added-value exports,” he said.

Turkey’s leader also announced the formation of a bond guarantee fund to support company bond auctions and said tax policies would be simplified, taking into account issues raised by international investors.

A Reuters poll has forecast that the central bank will raise its policy rate by 100 bp to 18% at its next meeting, scheduled for March 18.