Russia’s inflation down only marginally in September, beginning of October

Russian consumer price growth stood at 0.14% week on week from October 1 to 7 (up 0.19% a week earlier), according to RosStat data. The estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development put annual inflation at 8.5% year on year.

European transshipments head to Kyrgyzstan

Apart from financial and military support, another part of aiding Ukraine's victory against Russia is the upholding of sanctions by its European allies. Not Kyrgyzstan.

Ukraine's deficit grows while intergovernmental aid stagnates

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been holding a string of bilateral meetings with European leaders to showcase what has been dubbed the Ukraine victory plan, Statista reports.

Inflation declines to 8.6% in September, but another rate hike looking likely

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly.

Russian budget surplus narrows to RUB200bn ahead of major spending surge in 4Q24

Russia's federal budget posted a surplus of RUB500bn ($5.2bn) in September, despite a sharp rise in spending, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on October 10, Renaissance Capital reports.

Ukraine's international reserves fell by 8.1% in September to $38.9bn

Ukraine's international reserves fell by 8.1% in September to $38.9bn, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on October 7.

Russia's service PMI growth slows to 50.5 in September, as combined PMI goes into the red on slowing economic growth

Business activity in Russia’s services sector continued to expand in September, albeit at a marginal pace, according to the latest S&P Global services PMI.

Russia's grain harvest is forecast to grow by 2.1% to 148mn tonnes by 2026/2027 from the record year in 2022/2023

Russia's harvest of grain and vegetables is forecast to grow to 148mn tonnes by the 2026/2027 marketing season, a 2.1% increase from the 2022/2023 marketing year of 158mn tonnes.

Russia's manufacturing PMI drops below 50 for the first time since April 2022

Russia's manufacturing sector contracted in September, marking the first decline in 28 months, as weak demand, supply chain disruptions and material shortages hampered production.

Russian industrial output slows down to 2.7% in August

Russian industrial output growth slowed to 2.7% year on year in August and 4.5% y/y in 8M24 overall, according to the latest data by RosStat. The seasonally adjusted growth was 0.8% m/m (after a similar decline seen in July).

Vice President Kamala Harris promises to cut energy costs, ramp up oil production

Russian banking profits surge by 42% in August $4.6bn

The Russian banking sector's profits in August surged by 42% month-on-month to RUB435bn ($4.6bn), according to data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), TASS reports.

Ukraine holds interest rates steady at 13% as inflation risks persist

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) opted to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 13% on September 19, a move aimed at facilitating the gradual return of inflation to the 5% target.

Russian population unhappiest it has been in a decade – VTsIOM

Eight out of ten (78%) of Russians consider themselves to be relatively happy, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). However, the overall happiness index has dropped to its lowest point since November 2014.

Ukraine has both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, says CIA

Ukraine currently holds the grim distinction of having both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, according to the latest data from the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) factbook.

Russia’s central bank surprises market with 100bp rate hike to 19%

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) surprised the market with a surprise 100bp hike on September 13 taking the prime interest rate to 19%.

Russia's budget oil breakeven price world’s second lowest as oil revenues recover

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has forecast a decrease in Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price (the amount to balance the external current account) to $77 per barrel by 2025, supported by a recovery in oil and gas revenues.

Russia’s services PMI up again to 52.3 in August ahead of manufacturing

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 52.3 midway through the third quarter, up from 51.1 in July, the credit agency reported on September 4.

Russian banks’ profit surged by more than a third to $3.3bn m/m in July, on track for another strong year

Russian banks’ net profit surged by more than a third (36%) month on month in July, reaching RUB306bn ($3.3bn) and putting the sector on course for another strong year, according to preliminary data released by the Central Bank of Russia.

CBR forecasts strong growth 3.5-4% in 2024, but sharp slowdown from 2025 as last of Keynesianism war bump wears off

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) forecast strong growth this year, but forecast a sharp slowdown starting in 2025 as the last of the military Keynesianism effects wear off, in its medium-term outlook, released on August 21.