Diplomatic tensions between Washington and Brasília escalated sharply on July 7 after US President Donald Trump publicly defended former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing criminal charges for allegedly plotting a coup d'état following his 2022 election defeat.

Trump's intervention, delivered via his Truth Social platform, prompted an immediate and forceful response from Brazil's leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who rejected what he characterised as foreign "interference" in his country's judicial system.

"Brazil is doing a terrible thing on their treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro," Trump wrote, describing the case as a politically motivated "WITCH HUNT" designed to diminish Bolsonaro's popularity.

The US president drew parallels between Bolsonaro's legal troubles and his own prosecution over the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, stating: "This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent – Something I know much about! It happened to me, times 10."

Trump concluded his post with what appeared to be a call for Bolsonaro's re-election: "The only Trial that should be happening is a Trial by the Voters of Brazil – It's called an Election. LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!"

However, Bolsonaro, often dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics,” has been barred from running for office until 2030 after Brazil's Superior Electoral Court found he had abused his power by using government offices to spread doubt about the country's voting machines.

The response from Brasília was swift and uncompromising. Without naming Trump or Bolsonaro directly, Lula issued a statement defending Brazil's sovereignty and judicial independence.

"The defence of democracy in Brazil is a matter for Brazilians to deal with. We are a sovereign country. We do not accept interference or tutelage from anyone," Lula wrote.

Brazil's Minister of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann, was more direct in her criticism, writing on social media: "Trump is very wrong if he thinks he can interfere in the Brazilian judicial process."

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, welcomed Trump's support enthusiastically. "I received President Trump's note with great joy," he wrote on social media, thanking the "illustrious President and friend" who had endured similar persecution.”

The former Brazilian president maintained his innocence, describing the case against him as "a legal aberration, clear political persecution."

Bolsonaro faces trial before Brazil's Supreme Court over allegations that he masterminded a scheme to retain power after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Prosecutors claim they have uncovered evidence of a plot that would have involved assassinating Lula and other officials. The former president, who was barred from leaving the country to attend Trump’s inauguration on January 20, could face up to 40 years in prison if convicted.

The case bears striking similarities to Trump's own legal troubles. Both leaders have been accused of attempting to undermine their countries' elections following electoral defeats, and both have faced charges related to their supporters' violent attacks on government buildings.

In Brazil's case, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in Brasília in January 2023 to protest the election outcome, mirroring the January 6 Capitol attack by Trump supporters.

The latest spat highlights the complex relationship between the two largest economies in the Americas. Trump and Bolsonaro, both far-right populist leaders who took office in 2017, each lost their initial re-election bids and disputed the outcomes.

Critics have long speculated that Trump might seek to intervene in Brazil's prosecution of Bolsonaro through political pressure. Earlier this year, Trump Media and Technology Group joined a lawsuit in Florida against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the criminal case against Bolsonaro.

The timing of Trump's intervention is particularly sensitive, coming as Brazil's Supreme Court is expected to deliver its verdict in the coming months after closing the preliminary investigation phase last month.

The dispute threatens to complicate broader US-Brazil relations at a time when both countries are navigating complex geopolitical challenges in the region. Brazil, as Latin America's largest economy, plays a crucial role in regional stability and US strategic interests in South America.

Yet, as a founding member of BRICS, Brasília has been pivoting towards China and other emerging economies in recent years — a shift that has gained momentum under Lula's administration. The timing of Trump's intervention is particularly pointed, coming just days after Rio hosted the BRICS annual summit, which brought together key leaders from China, Russia, and India, among other bloc members.

For Trump, the defence of Bolsonaro represents solidarity with a fellow right-wing leader who faces similar accusations of election interference. For Brazil, the episode underscores the challenges of maintaining judicial independence in the face of international political pressure as the country gears up for elections next year.

The case will test whether Brazil's democratic institutions can withstand external interference whilst pursuing accountability for alleged threats to the country's constitutional order.