China is now operating the former United States military facility at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, The Telegraph reports citing anonymous officials and satellite imagery analyses.

The strategic airfield, located about 70 kilometres north of Kabul, was previously the largest US military base in the country until American forces withdrew in August 2021.

The Telegraph reported on July 8 that Chinese personnel have been seen at the site since early 2024, with the base undergoing construction and refurbishment believed to be funded and directed by the Chinese government. Satellite images reportedly show new radar arrays, perimeter reinforcements, and a modernised runway capable of handling heavy military aircraft.

Officials familiar with the intelligence assessments told The Telegraph that China is not formally declaring a military presence at Bagram, but that the activity aligns with wider strategic objectives under the Belt and Road Initiative. The move marks Beijing’s most significant military footprint in Afghanistan to date.

Kabul’s relations with the outside world have improved recently. Last week Russia became the first power to formally recognise the Taliban government as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan. Previously, the Kremlin had designated the Taliban as a terrorist organisation.

The Taliban have toned down their hostile attitude to their regional neighbours, who have been reaching out to improve relations and reduce regional security concerns. Relations with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have improved. Uzbekistan has built a major trading station at Termez on the border with Afghanistan that is proving important for the Afghan economy.

Russia is emerging as a key partner. A Taliban delegation has participated in the last two St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) conferences, Russia’s premier investment event. Russia is keen to develop a southern route into the lucrative Asian markets for its oil and gas exports, which are currently bottled up by instability in Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s acting minister of commerce and trade, Haji Nooruddin Azizi, showed up at the Astana International Forum on May 30, bringing a message that Afghanistan is open for business. His pitch received what might kindly be described as mixed reviews from the audience.

During his visit to Astana, Azizi also met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to discuss a highly anticipated $500mn railway deal that would link Central Asia to ports in Pakistan. Another freight railway line connecting China and Afghanistan via Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is already in operation.

The Taliban administration has also done a $100mn deal with the World Bank to restart work on the rollout of the Afghan section of the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project, or CASA-1000.

China deepening ties

China has not yet formally recognised the Taliban government but has good relations with the government and has been in talks to exploit the country’s significant raw material deposits.

The Taliban brought in its first major foreign investment on January 5, 2023, when it signed off on a 25-year oil extraction agreement with Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC), a Chinese state-linked firm.

The deal covers the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan and CAPEIC committed to investing $150mn in the first year, with total investment expected to reach $540mn over three years, according to the Taliban Ministry of Mines and Petroleum. The Taliban government will reportedly receive a 15% royalty from the extracted oil, along with a share in the infrastructure developed.

The big prize remains Afghanistan’s lithium treasure, which a US report once famously estimated to be worth $1 trillion, although subsequently the estimates have been scaled back somewhat. Nevertheless, it is clear that Afghanistan has significant deposits of lithium, copper, gold, and rare earth elements. Another Afghan-Chinese joint venture, the Mes Aynak copper mine, originally awarded to a Chinese consortium led by China Metallurgical Group Corp (MCC) in 2008, remains on the drawing board for now.

Politically, Beijing remains cautious. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly stated that formal recognition would depend on the Taliban meeting international expectations, particularly regarding the formation of an inclusive government and respect for women's rights.

Both Russia and China have been amongst the few countries that have kept their embassies in Kabul open following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

A Pentagon spokesperson declined to confirm operational details, but acknowledged concern over “any foreign military activity at former coalition bases in Afghanistan.” Speaking to The Wall Street Journal on July 8, a senior US defence official said, “It’s clear China is expanding its footprint in the region under the guise of infrastructure and economic support.”

Bagram Air Base was originally built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s and expanded significantly during the US-led occupation. The base includes two runways, dozens of hangars, and facilities for thousands of personnel.

“Bagram is a strategic asset. Its use by any foreign power has regional implications,” a former Nato official told Reuters on July 8.