Enthusiasm for EU accession in the Western Balkans is waning, while almost half the citizens of the region want to leave their home countries, according to the latest Balkan Barometer published by the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC). 

The survey conducted by the RCC among 6,000 people in the region reveals that support for EU membership has declined to 59%, a 3% drop from the previous year.

While Albania stands out as the most enthusiastic supporter of EU accession, with 92% of respondents expressing the desire to join, other countries show varying degrees of support. Kosovans and Montenegins also display relatively high enthusiasm, with 66% and 60% of their populations respectively aiming for EU membership. 

In contrast, Serbia exhibits the lowest level of support, with only 34% of respondents aspiring to join the EU. While Serbia is one of the frontrunners in the accession process – with only Montenegro further ahead – its progress is conditional on the politically difficult step of normalising relations with Kosovo. Large swathes of the population favour Russia and are opposed to EU accession, a trend that has grown as hopes of a quick accession to the bloc fade. Moreover, MEPs and other European politicians have criticised Serbia over its refusal to join Western sanctions on Russia. 

Bosnia & Herzegovina and North Macedonia fall in the middle, with around half of their populations expressing a desire for EU accession. Both countries have struggled to advance towards membership. North Macedonia’s accession aspirations have been repeatedly thwarted by conditions imposed by its EU-member neighbours Greece and Bulgaria, while in Bosnia progress is stymied by infighting among local politicians. 

Depopulation continues 

The survey also highlights a concerning trend of depopulation in the region, with 44% of respondents considering living abroad. This figure is a 5% increase on the previous year, indicating an ongoing exodus, especially among the working-age population. Economic reasons largely drive this emigration, with individuals seeking better opportunities in wealthier countries, primarily within the EU.

Kosovans are most likely to consider emigrating, with 57% saying they have considered this option. Between 40% and 50% of respondents from Albania, Montenegro and Serbia have also considered leaving, but only 38% and 35% respectively from Bosnia and North Macedonia. 

Various issues contribute to the sense of uncertainty and dissatisfaction among the citizens of the Western Balkans. Economic concerns are prominent, with over half of the respondents (51%) expressing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. The war in Ukraine has significantly affected the purchasing power of 71% of respondents, as told to RCC. 

Corruption remains a major problem, according to 27% of those surveyed. 69% feel that the law is not applied equally to everyone, indicating concerns about fairness and justice. A lack of trust in political parties is evident, with 75% expressing scepticism.

45% feel threatened by illegal possession and misuse of weapons – an issue that has come to the fore since two mass shootings within days of each other in Serbia in May. 

Hope for the future 

However, not all is gloomy. One in five respondents associate the Balkans with hope or co-operation, suggesting a willingness to work together to address the challenges they face.

The share of respondents that associate the Balkans with hope or co-operation is as high as 49% in Albania. 

However, only 27% of Kosovans and 36% of Serbians feel the same way. 

Albanians were similarly optimistic when asked about regional co-operation and whether what brings the Western Balkan citizens together is more important than what separates them. 83% of Albanians expressed positive views on regional co-operation and 85% on closeness between Western Balkan citizens. At the other end of the scale, the figures for Bosnia were only 67% and 57% respectively. 

Majlinda Bregu, the RCC secretary general, pointed out three key trends from the Balkan Barometer findings. 

““The Balkan Barometer reveals three main public opinion trends in the Western Balkans. First the good news: 76% of people believe regional co-operation is good for their economy. Moreover, 69% agree that what brings the Western Balkan citizens together is more important than what separates them,” said Bregu. 

However, she added: “The second [trend] is that the support [for] EU membership in the region is now 59%, or 3% less than in 2021. And the third one is depopulation concern as 44% think to live abroad, 5% more than in 2022. It is also extremely worrisome that 71% of young people are considering leaving their home country.” 

Elaborating on the findings, Berg commented: “The Balkan Barometer tells a story of people worried about their jobs, wellbeing and how everything that is going on around us is affecting our vulnerable region. It tells a story of willingness to make our home a better place of living, so that we can feel safe, secure and with a better future ahead for us and our children. In regional co-operation and the things that unite us, people see hope and opportunity to better themselves.” 

The annual Balkan Barometer, commissioned by the RCC, serves as a tool to examine public opinion and business sentiments in the six Western Balkans economies. Conducted by an independent agency, the survey provides valuable data from over 6,000 citizens and 1,200 companies throughout the region. It offers policymakers, researchers and the public a comprehensive understanding of prevailing socio-economic and political trends, as well as insights into regional and European integration.