Reconstruction spending after the devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela and Colombia this year could provide a modest lift to both economies in 2027, according to José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

"In both countries, reconstruction could lead to a slight boost in economic activity in 2027, especially depending on investment in housing and infrastructure reconstruction," Salazar-Xirinachs said on August 20, presenting ECLAC's Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2026.

How much of a dividend materialises will hinge on governments' ability to mobilise domestic and external financing, including from development banks, and to get reconstruction projects moving, ECLAC said. The commission has left its growth forecasts unchanged for now, citing the absence of reliable damage assessments.

The scale of destruction has been considerable, though the two governments' capacity to respond has diverged sharply. Venezuela was struck by two earthquakes, of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5, on June 24, killing 6,438 people according to official figures and causing material damage the UN estimated at up to $37bn. The government's own numbers have been disputed: in the weeks after the disaster, an opposition-linked database put the number of people unaccounted for at 29,000, while Acting President Delcy Rodríguez took nearly four hours to address the nation. Residents spent weeks digging through rubble without adequate machinery, with international rescue teams filling gaps left by the state.

Colombia's 7.4-magnitude earthquake, centred in San José del Palmar, Chocó, on August 10, killed 321 people, according to the national disaster-management agency, and wreaked havoc in Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Risaralda, Caldas and Quindío. The response was markedly swifter: President Abelardo de la Espriella, sworn in less than 72 hours before the quake struck, set up an emergency command post within an hour, and rescue teams deployed excavators, cranes and thermal-imaging drones within days.

The reconstruction effort is unfolding against a broader realignment of both countries toward Washington. De la Espriella, a self-described admirer of Donald Trump who has campaigned on subordinating Colombian foreign policy to that of the US, won Trump's public endorsement during the election and has pushed to join his "Shield of the Americas" flagship security initiative.

In contrast, Caracas’ pivot looks more coerced than chosen. Since US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January and Rodríguez assumed the interim presidency, she has moved from a decade-long anti-imperialist rhetoric to courting what she called "respectful relations" with Washington, signing legislation that eased state control of the oil and mining sector to attract foreign investment and kickstarting dialogue with sections of the opposition which could result in fresh elections. The shift has been rewarded with a surge in US aid: Washington has committed more than $386mn to Venezuela's earthquake relief since June, according to the State Department, alongside military logistics support and a weekly humanitarian air bridge. Colombia has received $26.5mn in earthquake assistance since August.

The White House has also loosened some financial restrictions to speed Venezuela's recovery, with the Treasury issuing a sanctions waiver for earthquake-related transactions and FinCEN telling banks the following month it would not pursue enforcement action over authorised aid flows. Bogotà, meanwhile, is seeking relief of its own: de la Espriella has asked Trump to temporarily suspend the tariffs on Colombian exports to help fund reconstruction, a request Washington has not yet answered.

Six weeks on, Colombia has already moved from search-and-rescue into reconstruction. Cali, one of the hardest-hit cities, has ended its search operations and is clearing debris — some 39,650 tonnes so far — from among the 9,090 homes and buildings damaged or destroyed. Cali mayor Alejandro Eder has put the cost of rebuilding the city alone at about $3.27bn; nationally, de la Espriella has estimated total reconstruction costs at $9.8bn, a figure that closely tracks BTG Pactual's independent estimate of $9.6bn, or 1.5% of GDP, spread over two to three years. Private donations toward the recovery effort had reached $653mn as of August 22, the government said.

That spending, however, will land on already-strained public finances: Colombia's fiscal deficit is projected at 7.8% of GDP this year.

ECLAC expects Venezuela's economy to expand a staggering 6.5% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, while it nudged up its Colombia projection by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%. For 2027, Venezuela is forecast to sustain 6.5% growth, buoyed by a revival of its oil industry in the wake of Maduro’s ouster, while Colombia's expansion is expected to ease to 2.5%.

Across the region, ECLAC held its 2026 growth forecast at 2.2%, down from 2.4% in 2025, with only a partial recovery expected in 2027. The pace, the commission warned, remains too weak to durably lift per capita incomes or close the region's development gaps.

"The outlook for 2026 and 2027 indicates that Latin America and the Caribbean will face a more complex international environment, characterised by slower global economic growth, heightened geopolitical and financial uncertainty, and increased pressure on international energy markets," ECLAC said.