Tajikistan will need roughly $5.8bn more to complete construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power plant, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings, which expects the entire project to be finished by 2035. 

The figure is lower than S&P's previous estimates, which stood at around $6bn in February 2026 and $6.4bn in August 2025, reflecting spending already completed rather than a fall in overall project costs.

Tajik Finance Minister Fayziddin Qahhorzoda said in July that a final total figure could only be confirmed once construction was finished, citing inflation, material and equipment costs, complex geology and additional safety requirements, including the possible construction of an extra protective dam.

S&P estimates Tajik authorities have secured agreements with international financial institutions and bilateral lenders to cover around 50%, or roughly $2.9bn, of the remaining costs, with the rest expected to come from the state budget and Rogun's own revenue. Signed agreements to date total around $1.5bn, according to the Finance Ministry, comprising roughly $650mn in grants and $867mn in concessional loans. Authorities are also in talks over an additional €500mn from the European Investment Bank, $500mn from the Asian Development Bank, and a €50mn grant from the EU.

The World Bank approved $300mn for Rogun on June 30 through the International Development Association (IDA), bringing total World Bank support for the project to $650mn. S&P noted Tajikistan secured the grant before a shift in IDA eligibility terms tied to rising per capita income, meaning future large-project financing may increasingly affect government debt.

S&P expects Rogun's next generating unit to come online in the third quarter of 2027, consistent with Tajik Energy Ministry plans, though the timeline has already slipped from an original September 2025 target. The plant's sixth and final unit is expected to be operational by 2029, though full project completion, including all construction work, is projected for 2035. Two units currently operate at reduced capacity, having come online in 2018 and 2019; the full project envisages six 630 MW units for a total installed capacity of 3,780 MW.

S&P said Tajikistan's net general government debt fell to around 13.4% of GDP in 2025 but could rise to 19% by 2029, partly due to new external borrowing for Rogun and expected gradual depreciation of the somoni. Around 90% of central government debt is denominated in foreign currency. The government's sole outstanding external commercial debt, a $500mn Eurobond issued in 2017 to finance Rogun's first two units, is being repaid in six instalments of around $83mn through September 2027.

Once complete, Rogun is expected to boost Tajikistan's energy capacity by more than 50%, with around 60% of output potentially exported to other Central Asian countries. The plant produced more than 1.6bn kWh in 2025, though output fell to 675mn kWh in the first half of 2026, down from the same period a year earlier. The World Bank estimates Rogun could eventually generate around 14.4bn kWh annually and create more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs. Tajik authorities say more than 48.1bn somoni has been spent on the project since 2008, with construction around 60% complete by the end of 2025.