The European Union needs a coalition of key member states to overcome political divisions and prepare the bloc for its next enlargement wave, including the possible accession of Ukraine, Moldova and Western Balkan countries, a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said.

The report, titled “The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement”, argues that the prospect of a peace settlement in Ukraine has made EU enlargement a strategic priority, but warns that member states remain unprepared for the political and institutional challenges of bringing new countries into the bloc.

“Member states have not yet converged around a single strategy. The moment to move is now; or enlargement may never happen,” the report said. The ECFR proposed creating a “Team Enlargement” coalition of ten EU countries that would work over the next 18 months to develop a new accession framework and build domestic support for expansion.

The initiative would be led by Germany and include France, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Sweden and Hungary — countries that represent different perspectives on enlargement, from strict rule-of-law conditionality to a stronger focus on security concerns.

The debate over enlargement has intensified as EU membership has become central to discussions about Ukraine’s future after the war with Russia. Kyiv has pushed to join the bloc as early as 2027, and the US has indicated that EU membership could form part of a lasting settlement.

But the EU’s existing accession process, which has expanded the bloc from 15 members in 2004 and subsequent rounds of enlargement, was not designed for a geopolitical moment in which countries bordering Russia are seeking rapid integration.

“The EU lacks a strategy to get Ukraine quickly and safely through the door,” the report said. It added that while European leaders broadly accepted the geopolitical argument for enlargement, they remained uncertain about how to make it work in practice. “Can the EU successfully enlarge without overstretching itself?” the report asked.

New models for enlargement

The European Commission has explored several options for adapting the accession process, including maintaining the existing merit-based approach, introducing enhanced gradual integration, or creating a phased model that would allow candidate countries to participate in parts of EU structures before becoming full members.

The Commission presented three possible approaches to member states earlier this year.

The first would keep the current system, under which countries must complete reforms and negotiations before joining. The second would expand existing ideas around gradual integration by allowing candidate states to access selected EU policies and benefits before full membership.

The third, described as “phased integration” or “reverse enlargement”, would allow countries such as Ukraine to become political members before fulfilling all accession criteria, with full rights and obligations coming later. However, the reverse enlargement proposal received little support from governments, according to the report.

An EU official quoted by ECFR said the debate “presented the real unity of member states”, with capitals rejecting what they saw as an attempt to create a new accession model without sufficient consultation.

Despite those disagreements, governments appear more open to developing a form of gradual integration that could provide candidate countries with closer links to the EU before full membership.

A key proposal came from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who in May suggested creating an associate membership status for Ukraine. Under the idea, Ukraine would gain a presence in EU institutions including the European Council, European Commission and European Parliament, but without voting rights. Full membership would remain the ultimate goal.

The report described the proposal as “unlike anything suggested for an accession country before” and said officials involved in enlargement planning regarded it as “the most compelling proposal on the table”. Although the concept requires further development, it has helped shift the debate towards practical solutions, ECFR said.

Germany and France later presented a joint proposal aimed at simplifying accession procedures for Western Balkan states and Moldova, while also calling for internal EU reforms. French President Emmanuel Macron and Merz subsequently reaffirmed their support for enlargement as part of building “a secure, prosperous and democratic Europe”.

Domestic politics a major obstacle

The ECFR report said the biggest challenge facing enlargement was not only institutional reform but convincing European voters that expansion would benefit them.

So far, the debate has largely remained confined to policymakers and experts, leaving space for opponents to frame enlargement as a source of instability, migration pressures and financial costs.

“The enlargement debate has so far remained confined to policy circles,” the report said, warning that this “may leave fertile ground for populist and far-right narratives”.

Political concerns vary across Europe. Some governments prioritise strengthening rule-of-law safeguards after the experience of Hungary’s long disputes with Brussels under former prime minister Viktor Orban. Others focus on security, particularly countries closest to Russia that see EU expansion as a way of strengthening Europe’s strategic position.

The report grouped member states into three broad categories.

“Principled conditionalists” Denmark, Germany and Sweden support enlargement but insist on institutional reforms and rule-of-law guarantees.

“Conditional sceptics” Austria, France, Italy and the Netherlands recognise the strategic importance of enlargement but remain cautious about domestic political risks.

“Security maximalists” Lithuania and Poland are driven by concerns about Russia and the security implications of leaving Ukraine and other neighbours outside the EU.

Hungary occupies a separate position, the ECFR said, supporting enlargement in the Western Balkans while previously blocking progress on Ukraine’s accession.

The report argued that these different priorities do not necessarily prevent cooperation, but any successful enlargement strategy would need to combine several narratives. Security, economic opportunity, migration management, sovereignty and institutional safeguards would all need to feature in the political case made to voters.

The geopolitical race

The report also warned that changing international politics has made enlargement more difficult. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and stronger links between US conservative movements and European far-right parties have complicated the EU’s ability to promote democratic conditionality among candidate countries, the ECFR said.

It argued that Washington’s more transactional approach to foreign policy has weakened some of the incentives traditionally used by Brussels to encourage reforms.

“In candidate states, America’s transactionalism is eroding the very conditions candidate countries must meet to join the EU,” the report said.

In the Western Balkans, the report criticised US engagement with some leaders accused by Brussels of undermining democratic standards, arguing this risked weakening the EU’s leverage.

At the same time, Russia’s influence efforts and disinformation campaigns could exploit concerns about Ukraine’s membership, portraying enlargement as a security and economic burden rather than an investment in European stability.

A coalition to move forward

ECFR said the proposed “Team Enlargement” should focus on four issues: agreeing a political framework, establishing a timetable for 2026 and 2027, coordinating with candidate countries and developing a message capable of winning public support.

The ten countries identified by the report do not share identical views on enlargement, but together they represent the main arguments shaping the debate.

Germany, France and the Netherlands emphasise institutional credibility and rule-of-law conditions. Austria and Italy have promoted closer integration with the Western Balkans. Poland, Lithuania, Denmark and Sweden highlight security concerns linked to Russia. Hungary remains influential despite its distinct position.

The report said a successful strategy would require governments to move beyond technical discussions about accession chapters and begin making the political case for enlargement.

“European leaders largely understand the geopolitical imperative for enlargement,” it said. “Where they hesitate is over how to make it work in practice.”

The next phase of EU expansion, ECFR concluded, will depend not only on reforms in candidate countries but also on whether member states can build a coalition capable of persuading their own citizens that a larger EU is in their interests.