Syria earlier this month received a visit from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team for the first time since 2009. The global lender of last resort used the mission to assess the economic and financial conditions in the conflict-torn country, according to a statement from the Fund.

Syria has been an IMF member since 1947. However, the international financial institution has received no macro data from the country since 2010.

Fraction of its former size

“Syria faces enormous challenges following years of conflict that caused immense human suffering and reduced its economy to a fraction of its former size,” Ron van Rooden, who led the IMF staff visit, said.

According to the World Bank, the GDP of Syria, which turned into a war zone from 2011, nosedived to stand in the $12bns in 2016 compared to the record $68bn recorded five years earlier. The latest available data suggests that the country’s GDP stood in the $20bns in 2023.

In constant 2015 prices, real GDP fell from $35bn in 2011 to $15bn in 2016. It has hovered around $15-16bn since then.

Inflation data on Syria has not been available since 2017, while the population of the country fell from 23mn in 2011 into the 19mns by 2015. As of 2023, the World Bank estimates the population at 24mn.

Last year, the World Bank released three reports, namely The Welfare of Syrian Households After a Decade of Conflict, Syria Economic Monitor and the Macro Poverty Outlook for the Syrian Arab Republic.

Six million gone, seven million displaced internally

Some six million people fled the country during the years of conflict, mostly to neighbouring countries, while an additional seven million were displaced internally, according to van Rooden.

Output has plummeted. Real incomes have fallen sharply. Poverty rates are high. State institutions have been weakened. The delivery of basic services has been disrupted outright. Large parts of the country’s infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed. The humanitarian and reconstruction needs are extremely large.

Urgent need for financial support

There is a great urgency to address these challenges and achieve a sustainable economic recovery, which would include absorbing the increasing number of returning refugees, van Rooden also said.

In the near term, it is critical to restore public confidence and macroeconomic stability through the pursuit of sound fiscal and monetary policies while creating conditions for the private sector, according to the IMF.

Syria will need substantial international assistance to rehabilitate its economy, meet urgent humanitarian needs and rebuild essential institutions and infrastructure.

This not only includes concessional financial support but also extensive capacity development assistance.

“Syria, as noted, will need substantial international assistance.  We don't yet have a precise estimate of that assistance,” Julie Kozack, director of IMF’s communications department, told reporters on June 12 while addressing questions on Syria.

Roadmap under development

The IMF mission’s discussions focused on near-term policy and institution building priorities:

• adopting a budget for the remainder of 2025,
• improving revenue mobilisation by strengthening tax and custom administration,
• strengthening public financial management to improve budget execution and monitoring,
• empowering the central bank to ensure price stability and restore confidence in the national currency and adopting a monetary policy framework suited to achieve this,
• rehabilitating the payment and banking systems, while enhancing anti-money laundering activities and combatting the financing of terrorism, to rebuild confidence in banks and restart financial intermediation and to allow reconnection with the international financial system (on June 22, Syria’s central bank governor, Abdulqader Al-Hassariyeh, announced that a Syrian bank executed the first SWIFT transaction in 14 years with an Italian bank),
• addressing immediate obstacles to market-based private sector development
• enhancing data collection.

IMF to coordinate

The IMF mission has reaffirmed the Fund’s commitment to supporting Syria in the required efforts. IMF staff are currently developing a detailed roadmap for the finance ministry, central bank and statistics agency. They will coordinate closely with other development partners in formulating this roadmap.

In April, the Saudi finance minister, IMF managing director and World Bank president issued a joint statement to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Syria.

$146mn grant for electricity transmission lines

In May, Syria’s $15.5mn debt to the World Bank was cleared by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

On June 25, the World Bank said that it has approved a $146mn grant under a Syria Electricity Emergency Project (SEEP) to rehabilitate damaged transmission lines.

The war has crippled Syria’s national grid, limiting electricity supply to two to four hours daily, according to the World Bank.

$40bn estimate for power infrastructure

In January, Omar Shaqrouq, Syria’s electricity minister, told VOA Turkish that Syria’s transitional government had estimated that $40bn would be required to revive the country’s power infrastructure, citing initial assessments.

For further details on the country’s energy infrastructure, see the report here.

$600-800bn in total

Electricity provision is not the only infrastructure casualty in the country. The total bill for post-war reconstruction could run to $600-800bn, according to some figures in circulation.