Nato members are gathering in the Hague for the annual security conference on June 25, where the US is demanding that countries increase their defence spending to at least 5% of GDP by 2035. Estonia is already there.

A frontline state and one of the seven European countries that share a border with Russia, defence spending has soared since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Estonia, along with its two Baltic State neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, fear that after Russian President Vladimir Putin is done with Ukraine, they will be next.

Estonia has become the top defence spender in Nato relative to GDP, allocating 5.4% of its economic output to military purposes this year, as tensions with neighbouring Russia deepen.

Central European countries were deeply shocked when the Kremlin used Belarus as a stepping stone to invade Ukraine from the north in 2022, which underscored northeast Europe’s vulnerability to a potential attack by Russia through the famous Suwalki Gap.

A narrow stretch of land, about 65 km wide, the Gap forms the border between Poland and Lithuania, and lies between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. Military strategists estimate that Russia could invade the Baltic States via the Gap and occupy them in a matter of days. It would then take Nato at least two weeks to respond, due to logistical constraints.

Poland is similarly worried by the threat of a Russian invasion and has likewise been beefing up its border defences. Poland is the second biggest spender amongst Nato members, spending 4.7% of GDP on defence this year and expected to cross the 5% of GDP threshold next year, as it intends to build the largest conventional army in Europe in the coming years.

Tallinn has significantly reinforced its eastern frontier, doubling troop numbers on the Russian border and constructing a new Nato base equipped with US-supplied HIMARS missile systems capable of 80km-range precision strikes.

“The US gave Estonia HIMARS in 2025,” Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics, posted on social media on June 24, adding: “Estonia has held live-fire drills to practise rapid, long-range strikes.”

For the first time, Estonian forces are also stationed in Narva, a largely Russian-speaking border city. Last year the Russian residents set up giant electronic billboards and loudspeakers mocking the Estonians and projecting pro-Kremlin messages and military propaganda visible and audible from the Estonian side on May 9, during Russia’s Victory Day celebrations.

The Estonian military is expanding civil training programmes as part of a broader mobilisation. “Civilians are joining in. 4,000 have enlisted in Estonia’s Defence League since 2022. Volunteers train with mortars, drones and machine guns,” Mylovanov said. Children now receive basic military education in schools, and families are rehearsing evacuation scenarios.

Estonia is home to a large population of ethnic Russian families that found themselves stranded in a foreign country after the collapse of the USSR and have struggled to integrate in Estonian society. The government has also been working to sever Russian influence. No new visas are being issued to Russian nationals and stringent Estonian language tests have been introduced to qualify for an Estonian passport. Russian-language media has been removed from cable providers, and energy infrastructure is being disconnected from Russia’s grid. As of 2024, Russian passport holders are barred from voting in local elections, and by 2030 all schools will make the transition to Estonian language-only instruction.

Kaitsepolitseiamet (KAPO), Estonia’s internal security agency, has stepped up counter-espionage operations. “In 2023 alone, ten were detained for foreign-influenced vandalism,” Mylovanov noted. Deportations are targeting suspected propagandists and individuals linked to Russian intelligence services.

Civil defence measures are being overhauled. Supermarkets and petrol stations now function as emergency support centres, and fuel, food and water reserves are being stockpiled. “The army is registering all private buses and ATVs for wartime use,” Mylovanov said. Shelters across the country are being reinforced to withstand potential attacks.