Polish retail sales dipped 9% y/y in constant prices in March, the statistics office GUS said on April 21. The reading was the weakest since 2005.

March was the first month to picture in hard data the expected crash in retail sales after Poland closed most of its retail early that month as one of the means to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. 

With the lockdown tightened in April and layoffs from industries like hotels and restaurants running into tens of thousands at least, demand for goods is likely to fall further.

“The collapse in the Polish activity data for March came on the back of two strong months and suggests that the economy probably avoided a contraction in Q1 and grew at around 2% y/y. But the slump in March is a taste of things to come with the April data likely to be even worse as lockdown measures bite,” Capital Economics wrote in a comment.

“We expect that the effect of lockdown on retail sales will be much stronger in April as limitations were valid throughout the whole month and the figure could go down as much as 20%-30% y/y,” Erste wrote.

Most retail segments saw sales crash in y/y terms in constant prices in March, GUS data showed. Sales of textiles, clothing, and shoes collapsed 49.6% y/y, clearly an effect of the government ordering the closure of shopping malls as potential coronavirus outbreak points.

Car sales declined 30.9% y/y while sales of domestic appliances fell 16.7% in annual terms. Sales of fuels were also hit, dropping 12.5% y/y. Sales of press and books retreated 21.4% y/y.

The only segments to record turnover growth were food, in which growth came in at 2.5%, driven by the run on the grocery stores that occurred before the lockdown. Sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics also expanded, at 8.8% y/y. 

In monthly terms, retail sales declined 3.3% in constant prices in March after inching up 0.4% m/m in February.

In current prices, retail sales fell 7.1% y/y in March versus an expansion of 9.6% y/y the preceding month. 

In monthly terms in current prices, turnover retreated 3.3% that followed a gain of 0.5% m/m in the first month.