Climate change is becoming increasingly damaging to urban populations, and officials in the Middle East are now warning that entire cities could be in danger of mass water shortages and desertion if trends continue in the warming direction.

According to a senior official from Iran's Meteorological Organisation, climate change has brought the country's water resources to crisis point, with temperature increases of 2-3 degrees Celsius, reduced rainfall and 25cm annual water evaporation, Mehr News Agency reported on July 8.

Ahad Vazifeh, head of the National Climate Centre and Drought Crisis Management at the Meteorological Organisation, said Iran's average temperature has increased between 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, reaching 3 degrees in central plateau regions.

The official made the comments as dust storms and wildfires have ravaged the region, with Syria, Turkey and Greece all currently fighting wildfires as summers continue to dry out. 

"Temperature increases have caused greater evaporation, reduced atmospheric humidity and increased plant water requirements," Vazifeh said.

"According to scientific data, each degree of temperature increase raises evaporation capacity by approximately 7%."

The official added that annual rainfall in that country has also declined, with the country's average annual precipitation falling from approximately 255mm in past decades to around 200mm currently. Vazifeh said evaporation potential has increased from approximately 1,100mm in the past to 1,350mm. "This means that on average, approximately 25cm more water evaporates annually from the country's surface," he said.

This evaporation level places additional pressure on water resources, particularly as rainfall patterns have changed to become more irregular and uneven, according to the climate official.

The official warned about pessimistic climate change scenarios, stating that if current conditions are not controlled and temperatures rise by 8 degrees, many major cities bordering deserts such as Yazd, Kerman and Isfahan will no longer have suitable living conditions and will become practically uninhabitable.

The official said Iran's summer season has extended significantly, previously beginning in July but now starting in May and continuing until October. "In other words, Iran's summer has effectively increased to 4 to 5 months," Vazifeh said.

Regional disparities

Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries now face mounting environmental challenges as climate change accelerates across the globe, with water scarcity becoming an increasingly critical issue for countries across the region.

Earlier on July 7, bne IntelliNews reported that world leaders must act with “immediate, unprecedented” urgency to prevent cascading climate tipping points that could have catastrophic consequences for billions of people, according to a joint statement released at the Global Tipping Points Conference held last week at the University of Exeter.

The statement, endorsed by nearly 200 scientists and experts, warns that global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C within the next few years – a level that would activate irreversible shifts in critical Earth systems. “Already tropical coral reefs have crossed their tipping point and are experiencing unprecedented dieback, impairing the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them,” the statement said.

"Humanity faces threats of an unprecedented magnitude from these tipping points," warned Tim Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, in an earlier report on the danger of tipping points.

Tipping points

A series of severe heatwaves swept across the Middle East in 2025, breaking temperature records and putting immense pressure on health systems, energy infrastructure and water resources, Reuters reported on July 6.

In Iran and Iraq, temperatures surpassed 50°C in May, prompting the Iranian Meteorological Organisation to issue rare heat alerts. Power outages were reported in major cities as electricity demand soared. Dust storms exacerbated air quality concerns, with hospitals in Tehran and Baghdad admitting increased numbers of patients suffering from heat exhaustion and respiratory issues.

The United Arab Emirates experienced its hottest May on record, with extreme temperatures disrupting daily activities and leading to a surge in energy consumption. The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology reported that peak demand placed significant strain on the country’s grid, with scheduled outages implemented to stabilise supply.

Prolonged hot spells in the Levant, including Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel, saw temperatures frequently exceed 40°C during June and July. The Ministry of Agriculture in Lebanon reported crop failures and water shortages in the Bekaa Valley, while Jordan’s Water Authority warned of critically low reservoir levels. In Amman, authorities implemented water rationing as demand outstripped supply.

In July, parts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Bahrain, Kuwait and eastern Saudi Arabia, recorded temperatures up to 50°C. The Bahrain Meteorological Directorate forecast highs of 47°C, with persistent heat above 44°C. Local media reported that schools in Kuwait City closed early to protect students from the extreme conditions.

The World Health Organization’s regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, Dr Ahmed Al-Mandhari, said: “We are witnessing a clear increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves across the region, which poses significant risks to public health and livelihoods.”

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Middle East is warming at twice the global average, making such extreme events more common. The United Nations Environment Programme noted that climate change is likely to intensify heatwaves and droughts in the coming years.

The Iranian Ministry of Energy stated that electricity demand in June reached 72,000 MW, a record high, forcing authorities to implement rolling blackouts.