Widespread disruption is expected across Russia’s capital during the May 9 Victory Day parade after the Kremlin decided to shut down the city’s internet and SMS services for several hours.

The decision to shut down the internet comes as a precautionary measure after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made veiled threats to attack the parade with long-range Ukrainian-made drones and launched an intensified barrage of drone attacks that have caused civil aviation chaos across the country.

“Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of anyone that attends the parade,” Zelenskiy said in public comments in the run up to the event.

bne IntelliNews Moscow staff reported that the internet was already slowing down on May 7 as the authorities prepare for a total blackout during the annual parade that this year will mark the 80^th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis in what the Russians call the Great Patriotic War.

The blackout, which began during parade rehearsals earlier this week, has paralysed mobile data services in central Moscow and other major cities. Officials insist the move is necessary to ensure safety during the military parade on May 9. The Kremlin has warned of “dangerous neighbours” in a thinly veiled reference to Ukraine and said that ensuring an uninterrupted and dignified celebration was of paramount importance.

Ordinary Muscovites have already begun to feel the strain. Payment terminals, food delivery services and ride-hailing apps have all faltered. Long queues formed outside metro stations as commuters abandoned disrupted digital transport platforms. ATM networks also experienced intermittent failures.

The situation threatens to get worse tomorrow, when over 10,000 military personnel and more than 120 pieces of equipment are scheduled to march through Red Square. A number of foreign leaders, including from China and Brazil, are also attending, underlining the Kremlin’s desire to project resilience and global relevance.

While security is being radically tightened, analysts are unanimous in the belief that Ukraine will not attack Red Square itself on the day of the celebration, as the geopolitical consequences will be dire. In particular, it would push Beijing definitively into a Russian alliance; until now despite Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin’s “no limits” partnership, Beijing has kept some distance from Moscow and is not supplying Russia with military aid. That might change if Ukraine attempted to hit Red Square with drones during the May 9 parade and threaten the life of Xi.

In a parallel move, Russia has cancelled traditional Victory Day fireworks in the capital for the first time in years, citing safety considerations. Officials are also reportedly considering temporary border closures and restrictions on public gatherings not related to the parade.

Despite the Kremlin’s assurances, the blackout has drawn criticism from civil society groups who view it as a disproportionate response that infringes on civil liberties. Others fear it sets a precedent for future state-sanctioned information controls.

 

Ukrainian drone barrage strikes Russian cities

In a move to up the pressure and highlight the boycott of the parade by the international community, Ukraine has increased the intensity of its drone attacks on Russian targets in recent days, in part as a response to Russia’s own intensification of its barrage, while talks on a potential 30-day ceasefire continue, but are largely stalled at this point.

Ukraine has been attacking Russia with drones constantly for the last two days, not only at night but also during the day and is increasingly targeting the capital, reports The Bell.

Over 500 drones slammed into targets in Russia on May 7. Amongst them was the Ramenskoye region near Moscow on May 7, near one of the airports of the Moscow air hub, amongst multiple other targets. Explosions also occurred at the Bazalt main defence enterprise producing weapons and ammunition in the Moscow region. Local residents counted at least seven explosions followed by a fire. Drones also struck the Splav plant, Russia’s only facility that designs and manufactures multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and related ammunition in Tula.

The Bell speculated that Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has a triple goal: the depletion of Russian air defence, the creation of a media effect on the eve of Victory Day and the maximum inconvenience to "ordinary Russians". The intensity of the attacks was three-times higher than normal, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence. Analysts speculate that the barrage was designed to run down air defence ammunition ahead of an even more intense attack planned for the May 8-9 main event on Red Square.

“The price-to-effect ratio in this case is in favour of the attacking side, even without damage on the ground. The estimated cost of a serial Ukrainian drone "Bobr", for example, is about $100,000. The cheapest modern Russian short-range air defence missile – the "Pantsir" complex – presumably costs the same in order of magnitude. That is, repelling such an attack should cost at least $50mn in missiles alone – but most likely it was much more expensive,” The Bell reports.

While it is easier to shoot down inbound drones during the day, it also increases the likelihood the attack will be filmed on phones and widely distributed in Russia, giving attacks a high propaganda value. It also allows the Ukrainian side to monitor the effectiveness of the attacks.

Ukraine partners close airspace to visitors

Ukraine’s partners were doing their bit to disrupt the parade by closing their airspace to dignitaries’ planes.

After spending the weekend in hospital with high blood pressure, Serbian President Aleksander Vucic finally confirmed his attendance at the parade in defiance of EU calls to boycott the event. He arrived on Red Square on the morning of May 8 after his plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Baku en route after Latvia and Lithuanian closed their air space to his jet, forcing him to reroute.

Likewise, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, the other European leader to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation, was also forced to change travel routes at the last minute because of the Lithuanian overfly ban. The obviously angry Fico made a statement before leaving saying that his scheduling had been thrown into chaos by the ban.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has already called this a "wild prank" of the "Russophobic outpost" and promised that "Russia will worthily celebrate the anniversary of the Great Victory together with an impressive number of foreign guests."

The main guest in Moscow is the Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping, who successfully landed at Moscow's Vnukovo Airport on May 7, which was closed in the morning due to a Ukrainian air raid. In total, leaders of 20 foreign delegations are expected to come to Russia for Victory Day events, down from the 29 that indicated they would attend last week.

Air raids on targets near airports led to widespread delays after at least 350 flights were delayed and cancelled. Some 60,000 Russian travellers found themselves stranded at airports around the country on May 7 for the first time since the war in Ukraine started three years ago.

"There is no chance that the disruption to civil aviation will simply end with all the planes that have flown to alternate airfields returning to their home port," the Russian aviation control agency ATOR warned. "This delay will trigger further delays, like a domino effect."