From ruthless butcher to daring political operative to inexplicable fool, the rollercoaster 48 hours that made and broke Evgeniy Prigozhin.

"I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just... do things." The Joker, Batman, The Dark Knight (2008).

Yesterday, Evgeniy Prigozhin was on the cusp of becoming a historical figure who would reshape Russian history. Today he is nothing more than a clown who will be remembered for a series of inexplicable actions he took in a span of 48 hours. What seemed to be a daring and brilliant political gamble on the cusp of stunning success turned out to be, seemingly, nothing more than a desperate cry for attention from a wayward servant to a master who had long ignored him.

In the blink of an eye, Prigozhin, who yesterday looked like an influential political operative, transformed into a character more fit for a tragicomedy than big-time politics. The audacious uprising he orchestrated was warmly and enthusiastically met across Russia and even more so in Ukraine. The notorious Wagner Group soldiers, under his control, were received with open arms in all cities they entered, while interior ministry troops chose to flee rather than confront the encroaching force. Panic gripped Moscow; military equipment was pulled into the city, roads were destroyed to impede their progress, and helicopters and airplanes were launched in an all-out effort to quell the uprising. All to no avail. Wagner shot down four helicopters and one Il-22 transport as they swept aside the feeble impersonations of resistance. The Russian air force, to make a good show of it, fired upon Wagner's columns regardless of the fact that they were moving among civilian traffic just to assure their masters that no consideration for life or limb of ordinary people was being made in the effort to quell the mutiny.

Once again proving that lives are the cheapest form of currency in Russia, Prigozhin, after his spectacular about-face, when asked why his men brought down a transport plane, replied that his crazy air-defence commander was firing on anything that flew and said he would pay RUB50mn to the families of the dead crew members. Four helicopter and ten IL-22 pilots died as a result of Prigozhin’s little tantrum, yet it did not stop either him or the Ministry of Defence from claiming that not a drop of blood was spilled, Wagner mercenaries were models of good behaviour, and no one had any complaints about their behaviour.

It was all to no effect as Prigozhin’s path to Moscow, and power, seemed wide open – and then…boom! The most unexpected of announcements – Lukashenko has reached a deal with Prigozhin, the uprising is over, thanks for coming to the show, there is nothing more to see here, we are all going home! At that moment, the mind of everyone covering and analysing the unfolding story in Russia was officially blown. Even attempting to understand, much less rationalise, this stunning development proved impossible.

As Telegram channels from Russia and Ukraine overflowed with clown emojis (there were over 140,000 of them on Prigozhin’s channel alone), the sanest decision one could take was to have a shot or two of vodka, go to sleep and try to work this out in the morning, which is what I did. Vodka usually helps to find meaning in Russia’s madness, but I must admit, it did not do so in this case. Clarity did not arrive in the morning, and the madness of Prigozhin’s actions made no more sense for the sober mind than it did for the inebriated.

It is now time to parse the events of the day to try to understand what lessons can be drawn from Prigozhin’s mutiny about the current state of Russian politics and the extent of Putin’s hold on power. Perhaps that will lead to more clarity and provide some method to the madness we witnessed.

Starting with the most obvious: Prigozhin’s revolt was a disaster for everyone, from Putin, to Prigozhin and to everyone else who threw their lot in with the undercooked sous-chef, whether soldier, politician, journalist or political analyst. If you threw your lot in with the hapless cook, you were burned. Some are now paying the ultimate price as videos are emerging on the internet of Russian soldiers taking matters into their hands and executing all Wagner mercenaries they can lay their hands on.

Second, Putin’s grasp on power is weak and slipping fast. As the revolt was gathering momentum, swarms of private business jets flew out of Moscow to safer havens in a clear sign that the rich and powerful have no intention of laying their lives on the line for Putin. More impressive was the fact that the very people Putin is paying the most generous tributes to protect him were the first to fold. The Ministry of the Interior, Rosgvardia, FSB and FSO either melted in the face of Wagner's advance or, as in the case of Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen battalions, never showed up to the fight. The situation was so threatening to Putin that he left Moscow as well, choosing to wait out events in one of his many posh residences, this one in Valday.

Third, the re-emergence of Lukashenko became an even more bizarre twist in the theatre of the absurd. Lukashenko is no stranger to coups and national uprisings, as his resume is full of experience in subduing them in his native Belarus. The Kremlin, in all its wisdom, must have decided that such invaluable experience could not be allowed to go to waste and engaged him to negotiate a settlement with the ornery chef.

The fact that Putin had to rely on Lukashenko to pacify Prigozhin speaks volumes about the state of affairs within his administration and his own impotence and weakness. Who among his handlers thought that delegating the negotiation of a settlement with Prigozhin to Lukashenko would be a winning move for Putin’s image in the long term? The mere proposition seemed farcical, highlighting the desperate measures embraced by the Kremlin to keep Putin at the helm for as long as possible in the face of growing discord and opposition.

Fourth, the disaffection with Putin’s government is not over; in fact, it’s just beginning. Whatever nutty reason Prigozhin had for moving on Moscow, since apparently it was not to seize power, did have one tangible consequence – it showed that Putin’s purported 80%-90% approval rating among Russians is a farce. Even as the news of Prigozhin unexpectedly cancelling Wagner’s national tour spread and his mercenaries started pulling out of the cities they occupied, they were hailed as heroes by the local residents who poured into the streets. In stark contrast, a chorus of "traitors" and "cowards" filled the air in Rostov and other towns as Putin’s police and other power ministries returned. This only added to the portrait of a nation in turmoil, its supposed strongman appearing weaker and more out of touch by the moment.

Fifth, Prigozhin is either an idiot or suffers from an extreme form of psychosis. No smart or sane person would ever agree to the terms of the settlement he agreed with Lukashenko. Prigozhin put his life in Putin’s and Lukashenko’s hands, siting their “personal guarantees” to let bygones be bygones as sufficient to dismantle his only source of power, Wagner, and give up what appeared to be an eminently winning hand. Putin may not be many things, but he is spiteful, has a long memory for slight real and imagined, and he does not forgive treachery. If history shows anything, it is that he mercilessly hunts down those by whom he feels betrayed and feeds them massive doses of polonium or Novichok. Prigozhin, regardless of the guarantees he thinks he received, appears not to be long for this world.

Sixth, the power elites that once stood behind Putin seem to be searching for an alternative. The need to halt the impending war and avert a catastrophic collapse is palpable, and Putin's ability to provide solutions appears more dubious than ever.

Seventh, the fate of Wagner is uncertain at best. It seems that a large part of the orchestra will be dissolved into the regular army. Some analysts think that they, under Prigozhin’s command, will be relocated to Belarus in an effort to relaunch the assault on Kyiv. While that may be the case, there are certain problems with that scenario. First, Prigozhin has lost credibility with his own “corporation.” There are many poignant videos of Wagner soldiers, once loyal followers of Prigozhin, openly stating that they feel betrayed and abandoned by the chef. Their resentment is visible, and their vows for revenge echo ominously in the ether of Telegram, further underlining the volatility of the situation. Second, Lukashenko wants to avoid direct involvement in the war in Ukraine. It seems unlikely that he was waiting for this opportunity to bring in thousands of uncontrolled, battle-hardened mercenaries into his country to destabilise a situation he has worked exceptionally hard to keep under control. In essence, nothing was stopping him from bringing in Wagner in the past. It seems strange that his position would change radically because of Putin’s domestic problems.

Eighth, the exposed instability in Russia presents both challenges and opportunities for those backing Ukraine. On the threat side, the weakened state of the government brings up the obvious concern of who actually handles the nuclear weapons and whether Putin actually has any say on whether they could or would be used. While the chances of Russia taking this nuclear step remain small, the added uncertainty is uncomfortable. As to the opportunity, it has become more apparent that Russia is not really capable of carrying on a protracted war. The stamina, either economic or political, or military, is simply not there. The internal problems created by twenty-three years of graft and mismanagement are too severe to overcome, especially in the face of a pointless and very costly war.

The ripple effects of this attempted coup are yet to fully unfold. The sudden transformation of Prigozhin from a potential architect of Russia's future to a laughable character has not only unmasked the frailty of Putin's regime, but it also leaves Russia teetering on the brink. As the final act of this tragicomedy plays out, one is left to wonder: who will have the last laugh?

Alexander Kabanovsky is formerly Russia-based banker and entrepreneur. This article first appeared on his substack “Thinking Out Loud” here.