Eastern Europe / Opinion

KABANOVSKY: Cynicism is Russia's Achilles’ Heel

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin February 26, 2024

Watching Yulia Navalnaya's stoic declaration to carry on her husband's battle against Putin and his regime, I found myself wrestling with scepticism, not about Yulia's intentions or her undeniable bravery, but about the broader context she is in.

Balkans a prime target for Russia's unconventional warfare tactics

bne IntelliNews February 22, 2024

Moldova and Montenegro already targets of Russian destabilisation efforts, says RUSI report.

KABANOVSKY: Has Putin created a martyr?

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin February 17, 2024

It is a sad day for anyone interested in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Alexey Navalny, for all his flaws, represented a brave, unyielding voice in the wilderness refusing to succumb to fear of a merciless regime.

McFAUL: Trump does not understand or value Nato and that’s very dangerous

Michael McFaul in Stanford February 14, 2024

I cannot recall another instance in history when a US president invited an enemy to attack our allies. Imagine how those comments sound in Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland.

KSE: Just under 10% of foreign companies working in Russia have left, more than half are staying

Kyiv School of Economics February 13, 2024

As of February 4, 2024, 356 international companies (9.6% of the total number of entries in the KSE database, or 27.8% of the companies that generated revenue in Russia in 2022) have entirely ceased operations in Russia.

PANNIER: Response to Bishkek thermal power plant explosion lifts lid on Central Asia relations

Bruce Pannier February 6, 2024

And what’s seen is quite encouraging.

CENUSA: EU faces consequences of geopolitical crises as Eastern Europe enters complex political-electoral phase

Denis Cenusa in Giessen January 30, 2024

Eurosceptics' ability to exploit protests will test the EU's potential to influence its Eastern Neighbourhood. At the same time, electoral cycles in Eastern Europe favour the consolidation and perpetuation of autocracies.

McFAUL: Underestimating the Russian threat to Europe

Michael McFaul in Stanford January 26, 2024

Over the last two years, I have given a lot of talks around the United States and the world about the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I have a talk discerning the causes of the war and the possibility of a Russia-Nato clash.

UBN: Ignore the Headlines - Momentum is Moving in Ukraine’s Direction, not Russia’s

Mark McNamee of UBN in Kyiv January 25, 2024

For all the talk of the Kremlin’s rising confidence since late 2023, the reality is in fact far from encouraging for Russia. Rather oddly, a nation mired in a foreign war it cannot easily extricate itself from against a far smaller adversary.

KSE: External conditions to undermine Russia’s macro stability in 2024

Kyiv School of Economics January 24, 2024

External environment has become dramatically less supportive for the Russian economy and critical buffers are coming under pressure, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said in its latest Russia Chartbook released on January 24.

STOLYPIN: No, World War III is not on the horizon

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence January 20, 2024

It has suddenly become unexpectedly and depressingly fashionable to predict the imminence of World War III, and the westward march of Moscow’s grim legions.

GUSTAFSON: The rise and fall of Russian steel

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington January 16, 2024

In Soviet times, the steel industry was the very symbol of the country’s planned industrialization. The sector revived in the 1990s before flourishing in the noughties, becoming one of Russia's big export-earners. But sanctions have hit it hard.

BOFIT: Uncertainty over foreign aid clouds Ukraine’s otherwise better-than-expected economic performance

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) January 8, 2024

Preliminary figures from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Ukrstat) show that Ukraine’s GDP grew by 9.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2023. But the outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty over crucial western funding.

Perspectives | Central Asian states walking fine line on Russian sanctions

Nurbek Bekmurzaev for Eurasianet January 4, 2024

Kazakhstan proving more adept at dodging blame than Kyrgyzstan.

BRUEGEL: The European Union should do better than confiscate Russia’s reserve money

Nicolas Véron in Brussels January 3, 2024

What to do with Russia’s foreign reserves, immobilised since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is primarily a matter of debate for the European Union, where most of these reserves are held.

PANNIER: “New Russian empire” remarks draw blunt response from Uzbekistan

Bruce Pannier January 2, 2024

For Central Asia, tough retorts from Tashkent to Russian nationalists are something new. Kremlin argues comments do not reflect Moscow’s position, but has done little to stop talk of “annexations”.

CENUSA: The Hungarian-Russian factor and the Ukrainian dimension of the EU's eastern enlargement

Denis Cenusa in Giessen January 2, 2024

The Hungarian-Russian factor, combined and separately, entails risks to the sustainability of the enlargement process of the European project.

KSE: The Russian economic chartbook at the end of 2023 - stumbling, but not falling (yet)

Kyiv School of Economics December 26, 2023

Effectiveness and credibility of energy sanctions remain on the line. Russia’s crude oil exports are increasingly slipping beyond the G7’s reach. Compliance with the price cap appears to have been virtually zero in recent months.

KSE: Investment opportunities for businesses in Ukraine

Kyiv School of Economics December 22, 2023

The current analysis presents an assessment of potential investment opportunities for five priority sectors crucial for the development of the Ukrainian economy, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said in a report.

MACRO-ADVISORY: Most useful Eurasia region books published in 2023

Ben Aris in Berlin Ben Aris in Berlin December 18, 2023

Throughout each year, Macro-Advisory tracks and records all books published which are relevant for investors and business managers/planners covering the broad Eurasia region and lists the best ones.