Eastern Europe / Opinion
Will Ukraine survive another 35 years?
On the eve of the 35th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, I find myself wondering whether my country will still exist in another 35 years.
RAGOZIN: Ukraine’s “tide is turning” PR push has backfired
The PR surge which heralded that the “tide is turning” in the Ukrainian conflict is ending up in a debacle. Ukraine can inflict tangible damage on the Russian economy but Russia can take it and give it back in spades.
Russia could use nuclear weapons as “last option” in face of expanding Ukraine war, warns Turkish foreign minister
West knows of these concerns, says Hakan Fidan.
COMMENT: Russia's fuel crisis spills into Central Asia as Moscow's backup supply dries up
Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian refineries has rocked not only Russia's own fuel market but those of Central Asia too, Carnegie Politika's Galiya Ibragimova writes, warning the region has little time to avert a full-scale shortage.
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s August Angst - 2026
One of our quirkier rituals is to write every year about why Russians view August as some sort of cursed month and to highlight what could happen this year. What are this year's "unknown unknows?"
MENDEL: Before the Harsh Winter: Ukraine’s Quiet Exodus and the Regions Left in Shadow
As Ukraine goes through the fifth year of full-scale war, a quiet but unmistakable movement is underway. Families are packing what they can, often saying goodbye to aging parents and family dogs, and leaving for safer ground.
COMMENT: Ukraine's refinery campaign is turning oil into Russia's weakest economic link
Ukraine's long-range drone campaign against Russia's oil industry is simultaneously hitting three sensitive areas of the war economy at once: fuel production, domestic logistics of petroleum products, and fiscal stability.
MACRO ADVISORY: Best Eurasia books published in 1H26
Macro-Advisory Limited has issued its annual mid-year compilation of the best business, political and general interest books published in 1H26, covering the twelve states in the Eurasia region plus Iran and Afghanistan.
COMMENT: Putin is hardening, not softening, despite Ukraine's battlefield gains
Ukraine's Western allies are preparing a final push to pressure Vladimir Putin before a winter expected to be gruelling for Kyiv, even as Ukraine's own long-range strikes campaign does real damage. But Putin is not budging.
EU needs 'Team Enlargement' coalition to drive next expansion push, think-tank says
The European Union needs a coalition of key member states to overcome political divisions and prepare the bloc for its next enlargement wave, according to an ECFR paper.
COMMENT: Russia nears a political crossroads as elites tire of the war
Russia’s war on Ukraine is entering a new phase in which the odds of escalation are rising even without any single dramatic turning point, says Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
COMMENT: Ukraine's three-tier state
Is Volodymyr Zelenskiy more focused on his own political survival than on winning the war? That is the question The Spectator's Owen Matthews asked after the Ukrainian president's reshuffled his government.
Ukraine's Caspian Sea strikes merge the Iran and Ukraine wars
“Zelensky bombed the Iranian vessel on the Caspian for the same reason his people paid Loomer to come to Kyiv and interview him: a PR campaign to try to win over Trump.”
COMMENT: Central Asia's talk of decolonisation outruns the reality
Public discourse increasingly casts Central Asia as shedding Russian influence – through decolonisation, a pivot to China, or a push for greater sovereignty – but the reality on the ground is far messier.
RAGOZIN: Zelenskiy’s failed revolt exposes the limits of his power
Nothing screams political impotence like a national leader losing control over key military appointments at the time of war.
COMMENT: Is Kazakhstan quietly ditching Russia?
With Putin’s war and economy going badly, the suggestion is that China will soon be seen as the clear number one strategic partner to the Kazakhs.
Ukraine war exposes widening missile defence gap as strikes reshape energy markets
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are reshaping fuel markets without significantly reducing Moscow's oil export revenues, analyst argues.
BOFIT: Russia faces increasing challenges in balancing its economic policies
The rising costs of the Ukraine war have forced the Russian government to increase spending, causing the federal budget deficit to expand further. High spending growth is making it hard for the CBR to cut rates and revive the economy.
Trump's four-part strategy for a post-American world: retreat, rebel, replace and reform international institutions
Trump has broken with the paradigm of the rules based international order and is causing chaos with his “America first” approach. But actually he has four approaches to reforming international bodies: retreat, rebel, replace and reform.
RAGOZIN: Ukraine’s history row with Poland threatens its EU path
The two countries have long been on a collision course over their differing interpretations of WWII history, but why did the clash happen now?