Eastern Europe / Opinion

NEMETHY: Is the world heading towards a “polycrisis”?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors October 5, 2022

According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.

OPINION: Ukraine refugee-internal displacement bond gains traction

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman Intl Consultants Inc October 4, 2022

Tailored offerings can bring in billions of dollars in commercial fresh money from both conventional and ESG/impact-oriented fund managers.

Russian men fleeing the draft are caught between suspected of being pro-Putin and Western closed-door policies

Denis Cenusa in Germany September 29, 2022

The partial mobilisation announced on September 21 by Russian leader Vladimir Putin has caused an unprecedented exodus of the Russian male population eligible for the draft. But do they support him and can they cross into the EU?

Sanctioned Russian diamonds are reaching the US consumer, but some are getting there legally – for now

Richard Chetwode chairman of Namibian diamond mining company Trustco Resources in London September 28, 2022

Russian state-controlled diamond monopoly Alrosa has been sanctioned but some of its diamonds are making it on to the international market legally. The upcoming eighth package of sanctions will crack down on Russia’s diamond and close loopholes.

EBRD: Reduced gas supplies and inflation to slow growth further in EBRD regions

EBRD September 28, 2022

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects growth in its region will slow as a result of gas supply problems that are feeding an energy crisis. The bank says growth will slow to 2.3% in 2022 in its region and 3% in 2023.

ING: Eurozone PMI suggests the region may already be in recession

Bert Colijn Senior Economist Eurozone for ING September 26, 2022

The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started.

ING: Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks

Gerben Hieminga of ING, Nadège Tillier of ING September 21, 2022

On 14 September 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced in her State of the Union speech a set of proposals to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

NEMETHY: The dawn of a new era: more expensive energy and wages?

Les Nemethy September 20, 2022

Psychologists say that the human brain suffers from dozens of different biases, perhaps one of the most important of these being “recency bias”. We tend to project the past into the future and Putin's war has radically changed that future.

PANNIER: Putin arrived with little to offer an SCO summit that showed no real clout

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 18, 2022

Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.

COMMENT: Armenia-Azerbaijan military escalation is a test for Russian status quo in the region

Denis Cenusa September 15, 2022

The new outbreak of fighting tests Russia's relevance in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus and could endanger its growing alliance with Turkey.

PANNIER: At Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, watch the action on the sidelines

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 13, 2022

Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.

GAV DON: Ukrainian offensive takes territory, but moves the political landscape more

Gav Don in Edinburgh September 13, 2022

While the territory captured has little strategic importance, the 2,000 square kilometres taken will massively energise and encourage Ukraine’s will to resist, and the will to pay for Ukraine’s resistance within the Nato alliance.

RIDDLE: Elections in wartime – why the September votes matter

Andras Toth-Czifra in New York for Riddle September 12, 2022

On September 11, Russia held regional and municipal elections. 14 of its regions will see direct gubernatorial elections, while six vote for a whole new legislature. Elections are also set for local councils across 11 cities.

RIDDLE: Russian elections out of sight

Stanislav Andreychukis of Golos in Moscow for Riddle September 11, 2022

Russia is holding local elections in 14 regions, which are supposed to be boring, but coming in the midst of a war they are more important than usual. However, with the introduction of online voting any chance of a free vote is gone.

GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington September 11, 2022

Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.

IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge

Philip Barrett economist for the IMF September 11, 2022

Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.

ING: Back to the 80s? What soaring inflation, US rate hikes and a stronger dollar mean for EM sovereign debt

James Wilson sovereign EM strategist at ING September 11, 2022

Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.

ING: ECB hikes by a historic 75bp, more hikes in the works

Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro for ING Research September 9, 2022

The European Central Bank has decided on the largest rate hike since the start of the monetary union and has given the impression that it is fully determined to do more on September 7.

RIDDLE: Russian metallurgy is buckling under wartime economic realities

Nick Trickett for Riddle September 7, 2022

As the invasion of Ukraine grinds past the half-year mark, Russian policymakers have finally begun to reckon with the scale of the economic crisis on their hands. Sanctions and a slowdown have already led to a RUB900bn deficit.

NEMETHY: Demographics and Cost of Capital

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors September 5, 2022

While there are short-term fluctuations in interest rates caused by economic circumstances and central bank policies, there are also long-term structural trends affecting interest rates.