Eastern Europe / Opinion
KSE: Stepping up economic sanctions is urgently needed to constrain Russia
Energy sanctions continue to face challenges, while Russia’s favourable external environment supports its economy and fiscal stability. These trends clearly show that the pressure on Russia is insufficient.
CBR: Russia’s inflation pressure easing, but monetary policy will be tighter for longer
In April-June the disinflation trend unfolded, not least because of volatile and one-off factors. However, underlying inflationary pressures in the economy were up as well. Monetary policy will be tighter for longer as a result.
COLLINGWOOD: Atlanticists vs. Autonomists - The battle for the strategic future of the European Union
In Europe’s capital cities and among its elites a great but undeclared battle is being fought for the future of the European Union. One side is heavily outgunned. The other side is dominant. But the race is on.
KSE: 54% of foreign companies operating in Russia have chosen to stay
At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine KSE Institute launched an analytical project, which was named “SelfSanctions”, to track which foreign companies left the market.
KSE: Assessing Russia’s shadow fleet build up
KSE Institute has presented a study “Assessing Russia’s Shadow Fleet: Initial Build-Up, Links to the Global Shadow Fleet, and Future Prospects”.
KSE: Russian oil tracker (ROT) – revenues down despite higher volumes
In May 2024, Russian oil export revenues dropped to $16.8bn, despite higher export volumes, according to the KSE Institute’s June ‘Russian Oil Tracker.’ Increased export volumes and the shadow fleet did not compensate for the lower prices.
CENUSA: "Multi-vector" foreign policy and European integration: the case of Georgia
There is a preconceived idea that if a country signs up to the enlargement policy of the European Union, its foreign policy becomes uniform and "Europeanised", manifestly strictly pro-European.
KSE: Assessing Russia`s shadow fleet
Russia’s shadow fleet currently consists of 435 tankers and aims to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil, specifically the G7/EU price cap.
COMMENT: Why China sat out on the Ukraine's Swiss peace summit
China’s failure to show up for Ukraine’s Swiss peace summit in mid-June was a major setback in Kyiv’s attempts to set a new benchmark for the international support of its military struggle with Russia and an attempt to rally the Global South.
COMMENT: The Kremlin moves to normalise relations with Afghanistan's Taliban
Ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, Moscow has handed a public relations victory to the Taliban by proposing to take it off the Kremlin's terrorist list.
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STOLYPIN: West needs to talk seriously about Ukraine
We do not have any kind of a common sense of quite what ‘victory’ or ‘defeat’ really mean.
CENUSA: Differentiated EU accession – the imminent decoupling of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
The only Eastern Partnership countries with Association Agreements (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) entered the EU enlargement package in the period 2022-2023. This separated them from the rest of the EU's eastern neighbouring states.
KSE: Damages to Ukraine’s energy sector exceeded $56bn
As a result of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine, the energy sector suffered direct damages and indirect financial losses in the amount of $56.2bn.
COMMENT: Russian tax hikes – important but not large enough
Russia’s recently announced change to a progressive tax system and hikes to the basic rates for income and corporate tax will reduce the budget deficit, but are unlikely to provide sufficient fiscal tightening to prevent economic overheating.
COMMENT: Better sanctions are needed to curb Russia’s flourishing war economy
The Russian economy experienced a sharp contraction of 4.4% following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering fears of a financial crisis as households rushed to withdraw cash and the ruble plummeted over 40% in value.
MACRO ADVISORY: Moscow is playing a long gas game
The Kremlin has now switched its attention to the gas market. It wants to replace the almost lost European market with new customers in Asia and to diversify the export infrastructure with both new pipeline routes and LNG.
KSE: Russia unlikely to face serious constraints in the current economic environment
Russia’s oil export revenues remain high as energy sanctions fail to offset rising global prices. Improved external dynamics are helping to stabilise the ruble and support the budget.
RAGOZIN: Ukraine’s mobilisation – public support vs private resistance
In Odesa, a young woman was badly bruised when a draft officer attacked her with metal crutches as she protested her friend’s detention by a press gang.
PANNIER: Russia is pushing Turkmenistan out of the natural gas market
Moscow’s moves to take over Central Asian pipeline capacity for deliveries to China might explain unusual urgency in the Turkmen search for new customers.
BOFIT: Russia’s national goals increasingly focus on nationalist themes and self-sufficiency
President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated to another term as Russia’s president on May 7 and has launched a new national projects programme to invigorate Russia's economy.