According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.
Tailored offerings can bring in billions of dollars in commercial fresh money from both conventional and ESG/impact-oriented fund managers.
The partial mobilisation announced on September 21 by Russian leader Vladimir Putin has caused an unprecedented exodus of the Russian male population eligible for the draft. But do they support him and can they cross into the EU?
Russian state-controlled diamond monopoly Alrosa has been sanctioned but some of its diamonds are making it on to the international market legally. The upcoming eighth package of sanctions will crack down on Russia’s diamond and close loopholes.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects growth in its region will slow as a result of gas supply problems that are feeding an energy crisis. The bank says growth will slow to 2.3% in 2022 in its region and 3% in 2023.
The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started.
On 14 September 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced in her State of the Union speech a set of proposals to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.
Psychologists say that the human brain suffers from dozens of different biases, perhaps one of the most important of these being “recency bias”. We tend to project the past into the future and Putin's war has radically changed that future.
Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.
The new outbreak of fighting tests Russia's relevance in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus and could endanger its growing alliance with Turkey.
Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.
While the territory captured has little strategic importance, the 2,000 square kilometres taken will massively energise and encourage Ukraine’s will to resist, and the will to pay for Ukraine’s resistance within the Nato alliance.
On September 11, Russia held regional and municipal elections. 14 of its regions will see direct gubernatorial elections, while six vote for a whole new legislature. Elections are also set for local councils across 11 cities.
Russia is holding local elections in 14 regions, which are supposed to be boring, but coming in the midst of a war they are more important than usual. However, with the introduction of online voting any chance of a free vote is gone.
Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.
Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.
Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.
The European Central Bank has decided on the largest rate hike since the start of the monetary union and has given the impression that it is fully determined to do more on September 7.
As the invasion of Ukraine grinds past the half-year mark, Russian policymakers have finally begun to reckon with the scale of the economic crisis on their hands. Sanctions and a slowdown have already led to a RUB900bn deficit.
While there are short-term fluctuations in interest rates caused by economic circumstances and central bank policies, there are also long-term structural trends affecting interest rates.