The raw assertion of power seldom comes so naked. Donald Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports from August 1 represents more than trade belligerence: it is an attempt to wield America’s economic might to obstruct another democracy’s judicial process. The US president’s outrage over Brazil’s prosecution of his ideological ally, former far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, has now escalated into an unprecedented breach of sovereign boundaries.

While fresh levies were announced against a slew of important US trading partners such as Mexico and the EU, Brazil received the most aggressive threat — a whopping 50% tariff on imports to the US — in a letter accusing the country of a “witch-hunt” against former president Bolsonaro.

The threat comes after Brazil’s judiciary system initiated legal proceedings against Bolsonaro over his alleged involvement in a failed coup attempt following the 2022 presidential election, whose results the far-right firebrand disputed. Bolsonaro, a close ally of Trump, is accused of attempting to subvert the election results and disrupt the peaceful transfer of power—a charge that has provoked a fierce legal response within Brazil.

Trump’s retaliatory tariffs were justified by his accusations that the charges against Bolsonaro were politically motivated and aimed at undermining his ally. “The Brazilian authorities are unfairly charging Bolsonaro,” Trump said, casting the Brazilian judiciary’s actions as an affront to his political interests. By using the weight of tariffs to express discontent with Brazil’s domestic legal proceedings, Trump’s actions represent an imperial hijacking of trade policy to impose US political will on foreign legal systems.

Yet what international media is glossing over is the fact that Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, a federal elected representative, gave up his mandate and moved to the United States to lobby in favour of his father. He found fertile soil, as the Bolsonaro clan represents the far-right politics in Brazil and are Trump’s best friends. So far, Eduardo Bolsonaro has been successful. On top of being heard by Trump, he held different meetings with American conservative congressmen, the State Department, lobbyists and think tanks, and financiers of the conservative and extreme-right causes.

Brazilian response

Brazil’s response came swiftly and unequivocally. President Lula, clearly irritated by what he perceived as unwarranted interference, reaffirmed Brazil’s sovereign status. “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept being abused by anyone,” Lula asserted, adding that the legal proceedings against Bolsonaro were entirely the purview of Brazil’s judiciary and not subject to outside influence.

Lula further emphasised that Trump should focus on his own country’s affairs rather than meddle in Brazilian matters: “Trump should take care of his business, and we take care of ours. Brazil is a sovereign country, and Trump should know what sovereignty means,” declared Lula at the close of the BRICS Summit press conference, responding to Trump’s threat of a 10% extra tariff on BRICS countries and their allies for daring to defy the United States.

This diplomatic row reached its peak when the US top diplomat to Brazil, Gabriel Escobar, was summoned twice by Brazil’s foreign ministry on the same day. The first meeting followed the release of a statement by the US embassy that criticised the charges against Bolsonaro, while the second came in response to Trump’s tariff threat. According to a Brazilian government official, who spoke anonymously, Escobar confirmed the tariffs were indeed being considered, prompting a stern rejection from Brazilian officials who deemed Trump’s letter both offensive and factually inaccurate, citing, among other points, his false claim that the US had a large trade deficit with Brazil.

Trump hates the Brazilian judiciary

Trump's hardline stance against Brazil may have deeper roots, tracing back to tensions surrounding Elon Musk’s social media platform, X (formerly Twitter), which last year faced suspension in Brazil due to non-compliance with local laws. In 2023, Brazilian regulators took action against Musk’s company, demanding that it adhere to the country’s legal framework regarding content moderation and data privacy. This was unacceptable for Trump. The EU did not dare to do the same.

Musk, whose platform has served as a mouthpiece for conservative figures worldwide, was forced to comply, sparking a backlash from the US billionaire. Musk’s frustration at Brazil’s regulatory intervention mirrored Trump’s own growing disdain for Brazilian judicial oversight, particularly as it relates to politically sensitive matters.

Moreover, the case has taken an additional layer of complexity given the role of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the judge overseeing both Musk’s case and Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial for a coup d’état attempt.

De Moraes has been a focal point for critics, particularly those aligned with Trump’s political circle, as he is currently being pursued in Florida courts, applying extra-territorially American laws, by two companies tied to the Trump Organization.

This legal pursuit is part of a broader pattern of antagonism, with the Electoral Court, at that time presided over by De Moraes, having previously made Bolsonaro ineligible (disqualified) for eight years for undermining Brazil’s electoral system.

De Moraes’ involvement in both the Bolsonaro case and his entanglement with Trump-linked entities in Florida provides a striking backdrop to the current political and legal confrontations between the US and Brazil. Trump in the US is forcing prosecutors to ignore the law and has been successful. As he revived the Monroe Doctrine at its best, he thinks he can do the same in Brazil.

Trade tariff weaponised

As The New York Times aptly put it, “Trump treats tariffs more as a form of power than as a trade tool.” This reveals that US tariffs have become less about economics and more about coercion, used to intimidate other countries into submission in pursuit of unrelated political or ideological goals, including interference in their domestic affairs, or simply to indulge Trump’s obsession with being seen as the most powerful man on Earth.

As tensions rose, Lula’s administration made clear that it would not back down from its position. The Brazilian government indicated it would implement retaliatory tariffs of its own, setting the stage for a full-blown trade confrontation between the two largest economies on the American continent. “We will not accept threats and we will act accordingly,” said a Brazilian official, underscoring the nation’s commitment to safeguarding its autonomy.

This saga lays bare not only the rising tensions between Brazil and the US, but also the dangerous intermingling of trade, diplomacy, judicial overreach, and political interference. As Trump’s trade war with Brazil ratchets up, the world is watching closely, aware that this conflict could carry far-reaching consequences, not just for bilateral relations but for the broader geopolitical landscape. After all, Trump launched his threats against Brazil and its BRICS partners just as the bloc was gathering in Rio, a move that seemed designed to undermine and intimidate at a crucial diplomatic moment.