The United States will introduce 50% tariffs on all goods imported from Brazil starting on August 1, President Donald Trump announced on July 10 on his Truth Social platform. The new measures also include a 50% duty on all copper imports to the US.

Previously, Trump had imposed the minimum 10% tariff on Brazil, which has a balanced trade account with the US.

Lula hit back, saying that any tariff increases on Brazil’s goods would be met in kind by Brasilia in accordance with Brazilian law.

Trump also published the full text of a message sent to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, warning that any retaliatory measures taken by Brasília would result in a further escalation of US tariffs. “If Brazil imposes retaliatory tariffs, the United States will increase our tariffs on Brazilian goods by the same amount,” he wrote.

In the same message, Trump stated that the US trade negotiator Jamieson Greer would "immediately launch an investigation into Brazil’s practices in bilateral trade with the United States." The probe, he noted, could lead to “additional increases” in tariffs if Brazil is found to be engaging in unfair trade behaviour.

The announcement comes after the Trump administration sent letters to 14 different countries threatening them with new tariffs of between 25% and 40% if they don’t strike a new trade deal with the US before August 1. The 90-day pause imposed to do trade deals after Trump’s so-called Liberation Day expired on July 9.

Given that Brazil does not run a large trade surplus with the US, the nominal rationale for the Liberation Day tariffs, the huge tariff hike to 50% appears to be politically motivated. Trump made the announcement in a letter that he sent to Lula, which included a rant over what he called the "Witch Hunt" trial of Lula's right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who Trump hosted in the White House on July 7, sparking a diplomatic row with Brasilia. Bolsonaro is facing criminal charges for allegedly plotting a coup d'état following his 2022 election defeat, but Trump is calling for the charges to be dropped and has called for Bolsonaro's re-election.

The new tariff announcement marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the two largest economies in the Americas and a leading member of the BRICS’ club. Trump’s proposed measures would apply to all Brazilian imports, although he did not specify any product categories or exemptions.

“This letter is batshit crazy, no other way to describe it,” said political commentator and bne IntelliNews columnist Arnaud Bertrand. “For one, imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil so that they drop charges against former president Bolsonaro is pure foreign interference. Even if you do support Bolsonaro, you don't want to establish a precedent where the US can dictate the Brazilian judicial process.”

“Also, longer-term this can only encourage Brazil to de-risk itself as much as possible from the US and minimise trade with them, so that such hostile actions have less impact. Which means reinforcing BRICS and all initiatives aimed at establishing an alternative order in which the US has no bite,” Bertrand added.

Trump also criticised what he claims are Brazil's attacks on democracy, Americans' free speech and "SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to US Social Media platforms," Reuters reports. He ordered the US Trade Representative's office to launch a new "Section 301" unfair trade practices investigation that could add even more tariffs, citing "Brazil's continued attacks on the Digital Trade Activities of American companies.”

After making similar threats to massively increase tariffs on China’s exports, Trump eventually climbed down, lowering rates and exempting many goods after Beijing threatened to cut the US off from its exports of rare earth metals (REMs) that are essential to the production of US technology. While Brazil has become a commodities export powerhouse in recent years, it doesn’t have China’s leverage over the US market.

The tariff hike, if implemented as announced, would significantly affect bilateral trade, which totalled $104.3bn in 2023, according to data from the US Census Bureau. Brazil is the ninth-largest trading partner of the United States. Mutual trade turnover in 2024 fell slightly to $92bn with a rare $7.4bn US trade surplus, according to US Census Bureau data.

The top US exports to Brazil include aircraft, petroleum products and crude oil, coal and semiconductors. Brazil's top exports to the US include crude oil, coffee, soybeans, semi-finished steel and pig iron.

The move comes amid Trump's continued efforts to shape economic policy according to his transactional multipolar world model.

The tariffs on copper will also impact the US technology sector and stymie the development of the fast-growing EV sector. Each charging station needs some 8kg of copper and while there is currently a surplus, analysts forecast a deficit appearing in the coming years as the sector matures.

"I am announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025, after receiving a robust NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social media platform, a reference to a "Section 232" national security trade investigation into the red metal that has been underway, Reuters reports. The announcement set off a scramble by companies to import as much copper as soon as possible from Chile and other major suppliers.